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Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

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Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#111

Post by inglor_cz »

pmezard wrote: post #91
Reason077 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “The Russians and the French are not going to abandon their rockets and entrust their nuclear deterrent and early warning system to SpaceX.” The United States is certainly happy to (launch military payloads with SpaceX). Having access to far more launch capacity, far more cheaply, is surely a significant strategic advantage. Edit: Added text in parentheses for clarity.

Are the US sending military payloads with non-US rockets?

That is the problem, right?

EU countries, not having a reusable rocket at their disposal, will have to pay through the nose for every launch, discarding the entire expensive rocket in the process.

Of course, that will limit their ability to launch satellites into space: the cost of discarding a rocket is high (let's not even start about fairing dimensions and subsequent limits on payload size). Wrecking a sophisticated machine after each use is uneconomical.

Meanwhile, the US is galloping towards much cheaper launchers. This means that by 2030 or so, they will be able to put orders of magnitude more tonnage onto orbit.

China noticed - and it is trying their darndest to close the gap.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#113

Post by Beretta_Vexee »

jltsiren wrote: post #48
contrarian1234 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are the Europeans wworried that "between now and 2030s" the US will cut off their access to space? I understand things can go wrong and it's good to have a backup plan in the long term... But that's not that many years out. You can go without access for a few years .. It seems like a tiny risk

The US has been an unreliable partner since Bush Jr. became the president. Every 4 years, there is a real risk that things will go wrong.

It's more complicated than that. Even before W Bush, the United States didn't hesitate to twist the arm of its partners in economic matters.

France and the USA may be allies, but economic relations have been complicated for over 40 years. The USA has no hesitation in interfering with or sabotaging the French economy (aukus subs, alstom, airbus defense, galileo), claiming that its law is extraterritorial in order to condemn company directors, and all the drity tricks imaginable.

This is what led many European companies and gouv in the 90's and 00's to prefer partnerships with Chinese and Russsian companies.

Even the British, with their special relationship, have completely isolated their nuclear industry from all US companies for fear of being screwed and at the same time signed partnership with CGN in China.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#115

Post by topspin »

sligor wrote: post #11
nabla9 wrote: post #2

Ariane 6 exists so that European countries can get independent access to space between now and 2030s. The launch cost is almost 2x the cost of Falcon 9. Both platforms can lift 22t to LEO. 6-10 years from now Ariane Next/SALTO will aims replicate Falcon 9 efficiency and the design will be very similar: reusable, RP-1/LOX, Prometheus engine is similar reusable open cycle engine as Merlin with lots of 3D printed parts.

Is the cost difference mostly due by design or also due to much higher production volume and launches for Falcon 9 ?

Both.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#116

Post by kranke155 »

cubefox wrote: post #105
ricdl wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ariane is apparently so obsolete that they are behind rockets that haven't even launched yet!

Ariane 6 isn't significantly ahead of New Glenn in terms of time. Probably a few months difference for date of first launch. Just as Vulcan launched a few months ahead of Ariane 6.

New Glenn still has to fly though

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#118

Post by JumpCrisscross »

ddalex wrote: post #70
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SpaceX benefits from massive taxpayer support and uses facilities built by the military and NASA So does ArianeSpace [1]. (It’s majority owned by the French state. EDIT: It’s not.) > no clear public indication of how reusable its rockets really are or their refurb cost Refurb rates and turnaround times for Falcon 9 first stages are publicly documented [2]. Refurb costs are more opaque, but they’d have to be multipl…

If I would be begging for new development money from the parent org after just launching a new product, I would also say that the new product is obsolete and we need to work on a replacement ASAP... especially in a pork-barrel org

> I would also say that the new product is obsolete and we need to work on a replacement ASAP

Sure. See the rest of the article. Everyone else has been saying the same for a decade.

Note that the reusable heavy launcher he’s pitching is still aiming to deliver in a decade what SpaceX can do today. It’s not a strategic option, it’s a jobs programme.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#119

Post by jltsiren »

moffkalast wrote: post #59
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it is still essential that we have multiple actors building rockets. The competition Twice the cost and at a small fraction of the frequency is competition in the way a rubber duck competes with a battle ship. Ariana 6 isn’t meaningful competition. ArianeSpace’s sole value is in its potential of becoming competition if one day sensibly managed.

Yeah this is ESA's see-we-have-domestic-launch-capability pointless SLS tier project basically, my tax dollars at work. I'm really puzzled at the lack of investment into any kind of reusable launch vehicle that could even come close to competing with SpaceX. Launching on this expensive relic of the past makes zero sense unless your payload is a military spysat.

I don't find it surprising. The orbital launch industry is small, but it requires large risky long-term investments. Until a few years ago, SpaceX revenues were relatively flat at ~$2 billion/year. There has been significant growth since then, but more from Starlink than from external customers.

If you're interested in money, there are better investment opportunities around. And if your angle is national security, the ~€500 million/year needed for a program such as Ariane 6 is little more than a rounding error.

Re: Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight

#120

Post by JumpCrisscross »

lm28469 wrote: post #85
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that’s before we start counting in China and, soon, possibly, India. Ariana 6 might be the stupidest civil aerospace project in the world after Boeing’s Starliner.

HN is amazing: Europe does something > Aha it's bad why did they even try Europe doesn't do anything > Aha Europe always late, never innovate, Europe bad

You’ll find no complaints out of me on ESA’s scientific missions. ArianeSpace is simply a shitshow. And this isn’t a European problem—I’ll call out ULA and Boeing at keeping them company.
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