Live data from Hacker News

The UK's Brexit dream is dead

politico.eu

71–80 of 85 posts

Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead

#71
post #6
post #2

> Radical plans to tear EU regulations off Britain’s statute books en masse have already been abandoned. The benefits of buccaneering free trade agreements (FTAs) have proved elusive. Britain's public services, far from receiving a promised boost, have in many cases almost stopped working. The number of people moving to Britain from abroad is higher than ever. It’s not what advocates of Leave had in mind. No, but it'…

... Eh? Is this the new line now? Brexit was a disaster not because it was an extremely silly idea, but rather due to saboteurs? I mean, I suppose you can tell yourself that if you want, but...

And World War I was lost by Germany because its army was stabbed in the back. And Communism never failed because true communism was never implemented anywhere including the USSR, only state capitalism. And Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.

You can never reason with cults, as their logical system are closed, self-referential and unfalsifiable.

Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead

#72

I've always thought actually Brexit supported the left much more than the right. I think we see that with two of Labour's key manifesto pledges would be either impossible or very difficult to do with EU/SM membership. Firstly - VAT cannot be levied on private school fees under EU law. Potentially you could argue for some exemption but I think it would be very slow. Secondly - Labour's idea of "nationalising" the UK r…

EU regulations require, IIRC, separation of railway infrastructure companies (like Network Rail is in UK) from actual transport operators. The new regs coming in require that everyone (who gets through necessary certification) can bid for time/space allocation on the infrastructure.

It does not mean you have to privatise or can't nationalize railways, it just means that private operators can exist and have to be able to use same rules and rates for access to infrastructure.

Whether it's good idea or not I can't say, but there's a lot of pro-trade neolibby thought like that in last few decades of EU law.

Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead

#73
post #57

Did the opposition to Brexit before the referendum campaign all or mostly on why Brexit would be bad, or did they put any significant effort into arguing that even if you were very pro-Brexit you should vote "remain" on that particular referendum because that particular referendum was flawed? The question on the referendum was "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Unio…

The beauty of Brexit is that voters could project whatever they wanted onto it.

Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead

#74
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU would let the UK back in in a heartbeat; the current situation really is good for nobody. It would likely lose the special treatment it had under its previous membership, however.

Well Juncker said yesterday that UK can rejoin in a two centuries - maybe. EU leadership is against letting them back in, so I don't know where get that 'in a heartbeat'.

2 centuries? Yeah no. 20 years? That's more likely.

Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead

#75
Given that Northern Ireland is effectively in the EU trade-wise it would make sense for UK to put most of the southern UK into the same state for frictionless trade with the EU, but have areas of the UK that can free trade with the rest of the world. Would mean an internal "border" say from The Wash to the Bristol Channel. Effectively there would be two classes of goods - EU and non-EU - subject to different rules. Or maybe the border could be horizontal - a non-EU layer able to free trade with the rest of the world, and an EU-compliant layer on top. Goods would stay in their own layer unless they cross the non-physical border in some computer system someplace.

Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The divergance might look worse, but - jealousy aside - the real measure is absolute improvement / decline, not relative.

Yeah, seems unlikely that Ukraine made any difference there.

It's incredibly likely. Lots of money spent on weapons and helping refugees, which has to come from somewhere; huge amount of fuel prices going up, which drives most other goods up. Straight after Covid.

Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead

#77

I've always thought actually Brexit supported the left much more than the right. I think we see that with two of Labour's key manifesto pledges would be either impossible or very difficult to do with EU/SM membership. Firstly - VAT cannot be levied on private school fees under EU law. Potentially you could argue for some exemption but I think it would be very slow. Secondly - Labour's idea of "nationalising" the UK r…

> VAT cannot be levied on private school fees under EU law. Given the long history of people the in the UK spouting absolute nonsense about what is or is not possible under EU law, do you have a reliable source for that claim?

I don't think there are any examples of people spouting nonsense over what was allowed? What are you thinking of exactly? What you did sometimes see is that the UK actually followed EU law pretty closely, whereas other countries would flout it to a greater or lesser extent, and then the EU's supporters would say "look see, you can do X Y or Z whilst being in the EU". Which wasn't correct. Unfortunately it was a case of, for the EU's friends ... anything. For the UK, the law.

Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead

#78
post #57

Did the opposition to Brexit before the referendum campaign all or mostly on why Brexit would be bad, or did they put any significant effort into arguing that even if you were very pro-Brexit you should vote "remain" on that particular referendum because that particular referendum was flawed? The question on the referendum was "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Unio…

It was the former: they campaigned exclusively on why Brexit would be bad. And moreover they argued exclusively that it would be bad due to economic impact.

It's not something you ever read here on HN and it's very surprising/unusual, but for people who made their decision based only on the campaigns, hindsight shows that voting Leave was entirely correct and voting Remain was incorrect. You'd never be able to have that level of clarity over something like an election because there's too much vagueness involved, but the specific structure of the Brexit vote and campaigns actually allows an objective evaluation.

The reason is that both campaigns made unusually objective and testable claims. On the Remain side they predicted a huge and immediate recession if Leave won due to uncertainty, they predicted enormous "emergency" tax rises to compensate for that, they predicted the UK would not be able to stay in the Horizon research framework, and more generally they predicted that the UK would underperform relative to the rest of Europe due to new trade barriers hurting trade with Europe. On the Leave side they stated the UK would be able to implement an Australian-style points based immigration system, that it would allow for new trade deals, that it would let the membership fees be reallocated to general healthcare spending, that it would allow divergence from EU law and that it would let voters "take back control". Both sides made no specific predictions about what would happen in the Remain case iirc, because that was assumed to be the status quo.

Well, Leave did win, and that lets us test these predictions. The 500-800,000 job losses due to an uncertainty-created recession never happened, the UK is still in the Horizon research framework (after leaving and rejoining), and the trade ratio of EU:ROW for the UK hasn't changed. In fact there's been no discernable change in EU/UK trade whatsoever, implying the single market had no benefits. The UK's performance has matched the rest of the EU as well. So basically all their main predictions were wrong.

On the Leave side, the UK does now have a points-based immigration system, it does have new trade deals, the membership fees are now being spent on public services instead, the UK is diverging from EU law (albeit slowly), and so on. The main disappointment for Leave voters is that mass immigration ideology proved so strong that the Conservatives chose political suicide and set the points threshold so low that immigration soared instead of reducing, this is technically not a failure by Leave who only campaigned on having a controllable system. The implicit assumption was that politicians would prefer to keep their jobs and set the points threshold high than destroy their own party; this assumption was wrong and now voters are "taking back control" by wiping out the Tories and moving votes to Reform... something that would have previously been impossible (as Reform's manifesto wouldn't have been legal).

Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead

#79
It was always a lie. And it was so obvious. It pivoted on securing a deal with the EU to get back their buy-in, to maintain previously negotiated treaties in exchange for nothing but spite. And the EU held literally all the cards while idiot "brexiteers" just hamstrung their government by creating arbitrary deadlines _in law_.

I almost understand why people voted for it initially but I'm staggered by how many people still believe in it.

Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead

#80

[flagged]

What utter nonsense. We have left the EU. Both the main parties, left and right, say we are not going to rejoin. The only power the EU has over us is the same they have over any external coubtry who wants to trade with them. We can improve our trade deals with the EU and harmonise where it makes sense, instead of burdening business with two parallel sts of regulations and testing regimes. This isn't rejoining the EU.

"The only power the EU has over us is the same they have over any external coubtry who wants to trade with them'

My point still stands. As soon as the UK left, they were threatened with horrible trade deals if they ever came back. The anti-brexit supporters seem to show this as a reason why they should have stayed and hate the pro-brexit supporters, rather than hating the EU for the threats in the first place.

Post reply on HN