I expect that the UK will end up rejoining the EU on much worse terms than we had before. Sooner or later it'll happen.
Don't think EU will let them back in.
The UK's Brexit dream is dead
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Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead
#12I've always thought actually Brexit supported the left much more than the right.
I think we see that with two of Labour's key manifesto pledges would be either impossible or very difficult to do with EU/SM membership.
Firstly - VAT cannot be levied on private school fees under EU law. Potentially you could argue for some exemption but I think it would be very slow.
Secondly - Labour's idea of "nationalising" the UK railways is really at odds with EU policy. Netherlands has an ECJ case pending because they do not allow private operators to bid for at least parts of it. I think this could potentially be mitigated but it is really not the spirit or direction of travel of EU law.
I think it's also important to add while a lot of legislation wasn't repealed, a lot of EU legislation is not being added to UK statue books. I think the UK would want to take a very different path on AI regulation vs the EU for example, and had we stayed in would have been a huge point of contention.
There is a lot more nuance in this Brexit argument. While I certainly didn't support it, this does not mean everything the EU does is good, especially in tech. There is too much black and white thinking going on with it. I'd also add that EU growth has been exceptionally poor compared to the US. Something is going wrong in Europe as a whole; and I suspect poor quality overregulation by the EU on growth industries is a (potentially small) part of that picture.
Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead
#13I expect that the UK will end up rejoining the EU on much worse terms than we had before. Sooner or later it'll happen.
I doubt it. Politicians and voters will keep pointing the finger at Switzerland and Norway how they succeeded without the EU and that they can too.
Don't think UK can get a similar sweetheart deal as Switzerland has.
Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead
#14Earlier quoted context omitted.
... Eh? Is this the new line now? Brexit was a disaster not because it was an extremely silly idea, but rather due to saboteurs? I mean, I suppose you can tell yourself that if you want, but...
That was the narrative only weeks after the vote. In realising nothing could be delivered, the saboteur story was invented to shift blame on to some Others. Scapegoating is a story as old as time.
On the brightside, this narrative probably contributes to the potential death of the Conservative party today as a plurality of brexit voters are projected to abandon them for Reform.
Recent tweet from them:
> YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU: Only one party can save Britain from the corrupt establishment.
> Today, vote with your HEART and vote for what you TRULY believe in.
Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead
#15I expect that the UK will end up rejoining the EU on much worse terms than we had before. Sooner or later it'll happen.
I doubt it. Politicians and voters will keep pointing the finger at Switzerland and Norway how they succeeded without the EU and that they can too.
One of the immediately likely things after the election is for Labour to rejoin various eurpean standards things, like on Chemicals, accepting the EU rules with no direct say in them, just like Norway and Switzerland.
> [Labour Chancellor] Reeves said she does not think “anyone voted Leave because they were not happy that chemicals regulations were the same across Europe”,
Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead
#16Anyone who thought the Brexit dream was going to be anything other than a nightmare was either a fraud, or convinced by one.
Oddly, it's not nearly the disaster I anticipated. It looks like an ordinary weak economy, the kind you get from time to time.
It's certainly a disaster compared to "we hold all the cards", said by a fraud and many were convinced by that fraud. I hope they are coming to understand that relative nightmare and turn out the fraudsters for a very long time.
At the end of that time I suspect they'll find themselves mostly not-as-well-off-as-they-could-be, rather than actually poverty stricken and isolated. It'll be the kind of thing economists point to on charts, but not really easy to see in the various economic noise.
I hope it's no worse than that. And maybe, just maybe, that somebody somewhere learned something.
Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead
#17Anyone who thought the Brexit dream was going to be anything other than a nightmare was either a fraud, or convinced by one.
I am not British, but as an outsider looking in it was very obvious that they were shooting themselves in the foot by distancing their closest trading partners.
At the time of the vote I remember a conversation with a friend's wife, who is British. I simply asked her opinion. The response I got was so caustic and vitriolic. She was very much supportive of the separation, but had no real reason other than "the foreigners are taking jobs from those born in the UK".
She was fully convinced and pissed that I even asked because it clearly meant that I was challenging their rights and freedoms.
It was then that I knew it was not only a bad decision economically, but that it was being made out of irrational thinking and not logical decision making.
Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead
#18> Radical plans to tear EU regulations off Britain’s statute books en masse have already been abandoned. The benefits of buccaneering free trade agreements (FTAs) have proved elusive. Britain's public services, far from receiving a promised boost, have in many cases almost stopped working. The number of people moving to Britain from abroad is higher than ever. It’s not what advocates of Leave had in mind. No, but it'…
Of the three Prime Ministers we’ve had since leaving the EU, two had campaigned for Brexit. (The other was outlasted by a lettuce.) If Conservative Prime Ministers aren’t part of the establishment, who is?
We've had four: May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak.
Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead
#19I expect that the UK will end up rejoining the EU on much worse terms than we had before. Sooner or later it'll happen.
I doubt it. Politicians and voters will keep pointing the finger at Switzerland and Norway how they succeeded without the EU and that they can too.
Norway is effectively in the EU but without a vote; it's subject to ~all EU laws but does not participate in making them. Switzerland is messier, but it is subject to most EU rules via a series of treaties. The EC considers the Switzerland situation unsatisfactory and messy and would probably be reluctant to do another one (and Swiss business are still significantly disadvantaged vs European ones in trade with Europe).
I can't _really_ see people in the UK opting for a Norway type arrangement vs EU membership, though I suppose to some extent I suppose it does depend on how it's sold; per the Brexit referendum the public is not _that_ interested in the actual facts of the matter vs the marketing.
Re: The UK's Brexit dream is dead
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
That was the narrative only weeks after the vote. In realising nothing could be delivered, the saboteur story was invented to shift blame on to some Others. Scapegoating is a story as old as time.
On the brightside, this narrative probably contributes to the potential death of the Conservative party today as a plurality of brexit voters are projected to abandon them for Reform. Recent tweet from them: > YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU: Only one party can save Britain from the corrupt establishment. > Today, vote with your HEART and vote for what you TRULY believe in.
I find it remarkable that, if it really is an existential crisis, it'll be because the Lib Dems outnumber them. Just a decade ago it was a terrible alliance with the Lib Dems that put the Tories in power in the first place, setting up Brexit.
All they got in exchange was a failed referendum on alternative voting. They proceeded to get crushed and almost vanished.
But here they are, potentially taking over from the Tories. There's some nine dimensional chess for you.