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Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

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11–20 of 163 posts

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#11
post #9

I wonder if this is like an immune system response by mother nature, it’s attacking the thing that’s warming it up i.e. air travel? Self correcting systems

No, it just turns out that things get more energetic when you dump a lot of energy into a system.

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#12
post #2

> The Prosser report outlines one of the primary reasons for the increase in CAT events as the intensification of the jet streams, driven by the warming of the planet. As global temperatures rise, the temperature gradients between the equator and the poles become more pronounced, strengthening the jet streams and increasing the likelihood of turbulence . I was under the impression that, as the poles are MORE affected…

Got some references?

They are cited in TFA

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/202...

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#13
post #2

> The Prosser report outlines one of the primary reasons for the increase in CAT events as the intensification of the jet streams, driven by the warming of the planet. As global temperatures rise, the temperature gradients between the equator and the poles become more pronounced, strengthening the jet streams and increasing the likelihood of turbulence . I was under the impression that, as the poles are MORE affected…

You might be thinking of the Gulf Stream, which is an oceanic current and definitively weakening, rather than the jet stream, which is an air current.

The jet stream is also driven by temperature differences. Same with most wind and weather, it's all various forms of heat engine.

(Edit: though apparently the additional moisture in the Tropics more than counteracts any reduction in temperature difference: see link in Retric's comment)

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#15
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s also what I read: The poles warm FASTER than the equator. Thus, the global temperature gradients are getting smaller. And as a result, not only does the Jetstream weaken: as a result, weather patterns become more stable which leads to greater continuous periods of draught or flooding.

jetstream != gulf stream

Jet stream is also driven by temperature differences, like basically all weather. Heat engines.

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#16
post #2

> The Prosser report outlines one of the primary reasons for the increase in CAT events as the intensification of the jet streams, driven by the warming of the planet. As global temperatures rise, the temperature gradients between the equator and the poles become more pronounced, strengthening the jet streams and increasing the likelihood of turbulence . I was under the impression that, as the poles are MORE affected…

That’s also what I read: The poles warm FASTER than the equator. Thus, the global temperature gradients are getting smaller. And as a result, not only does the Jetstream weaken: as a result, weather patterns become more stable which leads to greater continuous periods of draught or flooding.

Your intuition is incorrect. Global warming increases the jet stream.

“The new study, by University of Chicago Professor Tiffany Shaw and NSF NCAR scientist Osamu Miyawaki, uses climate models to show that climate change intensifies this density contrast because moisture levels for air above the tropics will increase more than above the poles.”

https://news.ucar.edu/132935/jet-stream-winds-will-accelerat....

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#17
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

jetstream != gulf stream

Jet stream is also driven by temperature differences, like basically all weather. Heat engines.

It’s a heat engine but more than just temperature changes are occurring.

“The new study, by University of Chicago Professor Tiffany Shaw and NSF NCAR scientist Osamu Miyawaki, uses climate models to show that climate change intensifies this density contrast because moisture levels for air above the tropics will increase more than above the poles.”

https://news.ucar.edu/132935/jet-stream-winds-will-accelerat....

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#18
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jet stream is also driven by temperature differences, like basically all weather. Heat engines.

It’s a heat engine but more than just temperature changes are occurring. “The new study, by University of Chicago Professor Tiffany Shaw and NSF NCAR scientist Osamu Miyawaki, uses climate models to show that climate change intensifies this density contrast because moisture levels for air above the tropics will increase more than above the poles.” https://news.ucar.edu/132935/jet-stream-winds-will-accelerat... .

Fair enough, I guess it's a pretty non-linear system!
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