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Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

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531–540 of 651 posts

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#531

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo…

The problem is the long tail. Neural networks are not great at handling edge cases and it's not clear whether they will ever be.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#532
post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you remotely detect if car stinks or not?

> How do you remotely detect if car stinks or not? Why do you think they need to? These cars go to a centralize location every night, I would assume, and cleaning at scale can happen. How often do you think an Uber driver cleans their car in comparison?

Not to mention the problem is pretty eminently solvable: let users flag a car as having an unacceptable condition. If that happens dispatch a new car and send the dirty car directly back to home base for cleaning.

The main problem with Uber/taxi quality is that the responsibility for cleanliness is on individual drivers, with widely varying results as a natural outcome. In fact a lot of problems with Ubers and taxis is downstream from the ownership and responsibility model.

The advantage of something like Waymo is that the responsibility is now on Waymo itself.

Worth noting that this is a problem in other lines of business: it's harder to ensure quality in franchises vs. stores operated directly by the brand. The more independent parties you have in the mix the more incentives become misaligned and the fewer levers you have available to ensure compliance to some standard.

This also isn't impossible to solve with human drivers, because ultimately this isn't a technological problem but an organizational one. Livery car services where drivers are employees (as opposed to independent owner-operators contractors) can centralize cleaning and training, and have more means to ensure compliance to a standard.

The "downside" of such a model is that there are many more laws to ensure you can't shovel your own expenses onto the employee.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#533

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo…

Why?

Many Chinese EVs with self-driving features include Lidar and manage to undercut Tesla on price.

Solid-state Lidar has become so affordable that most cars include multiple ones, with the spinny ones seemingly on the way out.

Also assuming that Tesla will hold on to the mass-market self-driving monopoly for long is a bit of a stretch.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#534

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo…

It could be better than Waymo today and it wouldn't matter. As long as Elon runs that compant with his middle finger extended to regulators, they'll never be allowed to do what Waymo has done by being so careful.

Look at Cruise. They had actual robotaxis on the streets of SF and were firmly in second place. Then they had a bad accident and covered it up. Now they're set back by years and billions of dollars. Now imagine Tesla's behavior ...

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#535
post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how we've gone from "Taxis are gross and dirty, that's why I love Uber!" to "Ubers are gross and dirty, that's why I love Waymo!" in the span of 5 years. What do you think comes next? These cars are literally unsupervised.

> These cars are literally unsupervised. Unsupervised in what sense? There's internal cameras that are periodically checked. Weight and seatbelt sensors that give alerts if a passenger is or puts objects in the drivers seat, or if too many individuals get in the car. I'd be shocked if a similar or greater level of observability doesn't also exist outside the car.

If the cameras are not AI monitored now, they will be next month.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#536
post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you remotely detect if car stinks or not?

> How do you remotely detect if car stinks or not? Why do you think they need to? These cars go to a centralize location every night, I would assume, and cleaning at scale can happen. How often do you think an Uber driver cleans their car in comparison?

People take taxis because they're too drunk to drive.

This sometimes leads to in-car vomiting.

There are also still smokers among us.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#537
post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how we've gone from "Taxis are gross and dirty, that's why I love Uber!" to "Ubers are gross and dirty, that's why I love Waymo!" in the span of 5 years. What do you think comes next? These cars are literally unsupervised.

> These cars are literally unsupervised. Unsupervised in what sense? There's internal cameras that are periodically checked. Weight and seatbelt sensors that give alerts if a passenger is or puts objects in the drivers seat, or if too many individuals get in the car. I'd be shocked if a similar or greater level of observability doesn't also exist outside the car.

There's internal cameras that are periodically checked.

Not appealing for me personally.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#538
post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These cars are literally unsupervised. Unsupervised in what sense? There's internal cameras that are periodically checked. Weight and seatbelt sensors that give alerts if a passenger is or puts objects in the drivers seat, or if too many individuals get in the car. I'd be shocked if a similar or greater level of observability doesn't also exist outside the car.

How do you remotely detect if car stinks or not?

Amazon has plenty of odor detectors for ~$50: https://www.amazon.com/odor-detector/s?k=odor+detector

I assume there are sensors available suitable for Waymo taxis.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#539
post #534

Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo…

It could be better than Waymo today and it wouldn't matter. As long as Elon runs that compant with his middle finger extended to regulators, they'll never be allowed to do what Waymo has done by being so careful. Look at Cruise. They had actual robotaxis on the streets of SF and were firmly in second place. Then they had a bad accident and covered it up. Now they're set back by years and billions of dollars. Now imag…

There are cheating devices that simulate hands on the wheel. If FSD becomes good enough they could go from suicidal to popular. Regulators wouldn't be able to stop illegal aftermarket modifications for obvious reasons. I still think Waymo will win, but this is how I think a Tesla victory would look.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is indeed silly. And yet every taxi driver has plenty of horror stories, and that's with a human sitting there.

Taxis have basically no recourse if you just ditch. Waymo has a video of you, your full name, your billing address and your credit card on file.

Waymo has a video of you, your full name, your billing address and your credit card on file.

The future is awesome

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