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Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

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Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#421

Post by Dunedan »

kajecounterhack wrote: post #110
bangaladore wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only selling point of FSD (Supervised) is that it (can) work "everywhere." This is because it only relies on navigation information and what the car can see. Waymo and similar companies all use HD Mapping. Ignoring the specifics, it can be thought of as a centimeter-level perfect reconstruction of the environment, including additional metadata such as slopes, exact lane positions, road markings, barriers, traffic…

> Reliance on HD Mapping gets you to "robotaxis" quicker and easier, but it doesn't and likely cannot scale. If you can make the unit economics work for a large quantity of individual cars, mapping is a small fixed cost. I agree that it's not economical to map every city and road in the US, since you need to generate revenue from every mapped road and city. So you can think of HD maps as amounting to building roads.…

> Tesla lacks the ability to resim counterfactuals with confidence since they don't have HD ground truth.

Tesla does have HD ground truth data for verification generated by their own LIDAR-equipped vehicles. However, according to a recent tweet by Elon Musk [1], they don't need LIDAR for that anymore.

[1]: https://nitter.poast.org/elonmusk/status/1788064109633875999

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#422

Post by jessriedel »

LeoPanthera wrote: post #140
jessriedel wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be clear: Waymo can take you to basically any address in those city limits, but it doesn't do so by taking the freeways like 101 and 280 that pass through it.

I saw a Waymo on 280 the other day. Maybe it was being driven by hand, but the lidar was spinning.

Yes they’ve been testing them with drivers for a while. We were discussing the actual operating envelope of the deployed pay service.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#423

Post by teractiveodular »

zooq_ai wrote: post #385
shkkmo wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is still stuck at Level 3 while Waymo has been operating at level 4 for years. If Tesla does manag to jump straight from level 3 to level 5, they have a chance to compete, but that seems unlikely. They also might move to level 4 and be able to expand level 4 coverage faster, but that still remains to be seen. Waymo has years of experience with the other hard part of self driving taxis: actually picking up and d…

A fan-boy would never call Musk a narcisstic a*hole. Technology progress is non-linear. Yes, Tesla is at L3 and Waymo at L4. But, you completely missed the point of rate-of-innovation, which was why I made that as first point. My GOOG holdings are 4x than TSLA. But in terms of who will deliver FSD at better margins, it's hands down TSLA. It's simple Math and Elon's obsession about cutting material costs & process to…

The main concern many observers (and I) have that is that Elon's insistence on not using LIDAR may mean that it's not possible to reach L4 with the current Tesla hardware stack, in which case TSLA can't even compete.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#425

Post by dventimi »

lmm wrote: post #406
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is posiionting itself as a premium product. Defending that brand precludes letting the cars go to shit.

They may be trying to, but when has Google ever successfully positioned something as a premium product and defended that?

There's always a first time.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#426

Post by zizee »

llamaimperative wrote: post #154
TulliusCicero wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will get faster definitely, but how much faster is the question. We've only seen full rollout to two cities so far, so hard to extrapolate.

Well you can definitely bet it will be faster not slower than the first two, especially given the basic (i.e. shared/city-agnostic) engineering required and the policy component, which will get easier and easier with each city as risk aversion turns to FOMO.

It also seems like a process that should scale horizontally pretty predicably.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#427

Post by fragmede »

llamaimperative wrote: post #154
TulliusCicero wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will get faster definitely, but how much faster is the question. We've only seen full rollout to two cities so far, so hard to extrapolate.

Well you can definitely bet it will be faster not slower than the first two, especially given the basic (i.e. shared/city-agnostic) engineering required and the policy component, which will get easier and easier with each city as risk aversion turns to FOMO.

I would not bet on bureaucracy speeding up anytime anywhere soon.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#428

Post by zooq_ai »

DannyBee wrote: post #388
zooq_ai wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A fan-boy would never call Musk a narcisstic a*hole. Technology progress is non-linear. Yes, Tesla is at L3 and Waymo at L4. But, you completely missed the point of rate-of-innovation, which was why I made that as first point. My GOOG holdings are 4x than TSLA. But in terms of who will deliver FSD at better margins, it's hands down TSLA. It's simple Math and Elon's obsession about cutting material costs & process to…

"A fan-boy would never call Musk a narcisstic a*hole." FWIW - You definitely come off as as irrationally in favor of tesla, regardless of reason. Nobody missed any of your points, they just don't agree with most them or believe the rest follow from your points.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ffhD_dNzoM0

Any driver that makes this kind of move is typically in the top 5%ile of driving skills. Yes, it's an asshole and slightly illegal move, but the level of intelligence that needs to be applied for this move is all you need to know about Tesla's advantages.

I have been extremely critical of Musk's reliance on only cameras, but I'm impressed with the progress they have made because of the new architecture in 12.x series. Considering it'll be trained with 100x more compute, I'm willing to bet that Tesla will overtake Waymo's capabilities.

Yes, it's a speculation and you can disagree, but unless proven you can't tell it's wrong

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#430

Post by aeyes »

Zenzero wrote: post #325
majormajor wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest problem with cleaning is that compared to Uber where there's a human driver, the autonomy factor will almost certainly lead to more people fucking shit up simply because they can. Look at anything else that goes unattended in the public way: ebikes, delivery bot things, scooters... nasty combo of "I want to fuck with The Man" and "haha nobody is here watching I don't need to be as careful with my messy sa…

That's my biggest concern too. My fear is in 20 years nobody will be excited to go in these because the interiors will be whittled down to dilapidated NY subway seats.

Once these become more common I am sure they'll adapt the interior to be more similar to the subway (plastic seats, no carpet, hard plastic everywhere) instead of having luxury car seats.
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