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Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

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Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#201
post #172

I can't imagine this turning out well if there is any social media movement around these cars. It's reminding me of that one robot travelling across the country which ended up getting destroyed by some people.

People already have gone around putting traffic cones over the car sensors. https://www.npr.org/2023/08/28/1196487085/anonymous-protesto... .

Just as a comparison, the people who did that also do highway protests. There's a video if you'll scroll down a little https://sfstandard.com/2023/06/08/activists-block-san-franci...

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> humans rely on two eyes in the driver seat Eyes which are orders of magnitude capable than the best cameras, and Teslas come with mediocre cameras, not the best. Eyes which are connected to a brain, and ML is a looooong ways from rivaling that. > That's a reality of life that robotaxis do not need to solve. Robotaxis do not need to account for things jumping out unexpectedly in front of them?

Orders of magnitude more capable than the best cameras? I wish. I need corrective lenses for my eyes to even work at all. With that fixed they feed my brain an image that's upside down, black and white except in the centre, which is covered in blood vessels and which has a blind spot. They also take a long time to adjust to sudden changes in lighting conditions, don't do any true depth sensing, suffer frequent frame…

> My brain tries to hides all this from me

Your brain is _really really_ good at surmounting challenges including many that you did not mention. We don't know how to get close to this in terms of reliability when using cameras and ML alone. Cameras and ML alone can go very far, but every roboticist understands the problem of compounding errors and catastrophic failure. Every ML person understands how slow our learning loops are.

Consider that ML models used in the field have to get by with a fixed amount of power and ram. If you want to process time context of say 5 seconds, and with temporal context 10Hz and with resolution 1080p, how much data bandwidth are you looking at? Comparing what you see with your eyes with a series of 1080p photos, which is better? Up it to 4k: how long does it take to even run object detection and tracking with a limited temporal context?

Your brain is working with more temporal context, more world context, and has a much more robust active learning loop than the artificial systems we're composing today. It's really impressive what we can achieve, but to those who've worked on the problem it feels laughable to say you can solve it with just cameras and compute.

There are plenty of well respected researchers who think only data and active learning loops are the bottlenecks. In my experience they're focused on treating the self driving task as a canned research problem and not a robotics problem. There are as many if not more respected researchers who've worked on the self-driving problem and see deeper seated issues -- ones that cannot be surmounted without technologies like high fidelity sensors grounded in physics and HD maps.

Even if breadth of data is the problem and Tesla's approach is supposedly yielding more data -- there is also the question of the fidelity of said data (e.g. the distances and velocities from camera-only systems are estimated and have noiser gaussians than ones generated with LiDAR). If you make what you measure, and your measurements are noisy, how can you convince yourself or your loss function for that matter that it's doing a good job of learning?

It's relatively straightforward to build toy systems where subsystems have something on the order of 95% reliability. But robotics requires you to cut the tail much further. https://wheretheroadmapends.com/game-of-9s.html

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Further, it seems to me that if you brake hard to avoid a dog, your car should warn me as I’m approaching. I’m not sure why we are trying to teach each car to drive when we could be teaching all the cars and the road to drive.

> Further, it seems to me that if you brake hard to avoid a dog, your car should warn me as I’m approaching. What does this mean? Electric cars are already required to emit a sound as they drive. I guess if it has to brake hard for something, honking might be a good idea, but I wouldn't want cars to constantly be beeping at everything in their vicinity if there's no imminent crash. > I’m not sure why we are trying to…

[deleted]

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#204
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That vision-only argument is marketing spin from Tesla. The biggest thing it leaves out is that humans process their vision input with a human brain, which Tesla vehicles very much do not have. If and when we create true AGI they will have a good argument, but a world where that exists will be wildly different from our current one and who knows if Tesla's tech will even be relevent anymore.

Why are you so confident that AGI, or a human brain, is necessary to be able to drive a car with only cameras? I get annoyed with statements like this because technology changes and advances so quickly, and Tesla has made substantial technical leaps in this field of machine learning. They have the state-of-the-art vision -> voxels/depth models and are only improving.

Tesla, who use cameras only, have not demonstrated full self driving, despite trying for a decade. Elon Musk has stated "It is increasingly clear that all roads lead to AGI. Tesla is building an extremely compute-efficient mini AGI for FSD" [1]

Waymo, who use additional sensors like lidar, have a driverless taxi service which needs no safety drivers.

The evidence kinda speaks for itself, IMHO.

[1] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1740641473849352450?s=20

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#205

I highly recommend everyone try it out if you're in SF. It's an incredibly smooth and sure ride. The cars are really nice too (Jaguar I-Pace electric cars), clean and spacious. The first time you ride in one, it feels truly sci-fi. But within 5 minutes, you're almost bored of it - that's how good it is. If I had to choose between an Uber of questionable cleanliness and driver temperament and a Waymo with a slightly l…

I’d say the same, maybe. But yesterday I had an Uber with a guy that had a degree in history and a love for SF lore, and told me about the tomb of Starr King, and then I went on a quest to find it with my friend. Just saying that there’s magic out there that’s not technological.

Not so difficult to add this feature with the help of human like voice and LLM backend.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#206
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Orders of magnitude more capable than the best cameras? I wish. I need corrective lenses for my eyes to even work at all. With that fixed they feed my brain an image that's upside down, black and white except in the centre, which is covered in blood vessels and which has a blind spot. They also take a long time to adjust to sudden changes in lighting conditions, don't do any true depth sensing, suffer frequent frame…

The cameras we are talking about have poor angular resolution, worse dynamic range than the human eye, and don’t do any direct depth sensing either.

Are we talking about Tesla's cameras or the "best" cameras? There are smartphone cameras that do depth sensing and HDR, and cameras are cheaper than eyeballs so composing them to get more angular resolution seems OK.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't see any evidence to suggest the modern model that Tesla has developed for their vision system is their limiting factor in the slightest to reach L4/L5 For one, frame rate and processing rate on human eyes is way higher than cameras. Dynamic range is another. Also, Cruise and Waymo are some of the only companies that have hard internal data / ability to simulate how well their safety drivers do, and in the v…

> For one, frame rate and processing rate on human eyes is way higher than cameras. I don't think it's exciting to say that you must have theoretical parity with something to use it for this use case. Tesla's solution monitors ~6? cameras at once with accurate depth in each. That's 6x more views than a human can see. I wish people would stop comparing apples to oranges. > Robotaxis need to avoid any accident that a h…

> Tesla's solution monitors ~6? cameras at once with accurate depth in each

No, the depth is estimated. It's not accurate, at least not in the way you need for L4.

> I never said anything to the contrary. Animals get hit all the time, not just because a human wasn't paying attention.

I was just clarifying what the bar is. The bar is that avoidable accidents need to be avoided. Nobody will get mad if a plane crashes due to unavoidable circumstances (freak accident where two engines go out due to bird strikes or something). People will stop flying in the plane when it becomes clear that the airline is not doing everything it can to avoid fatalities.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#208
post #18
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ubers don't smell bad until someone shits or pukes in one. I can't imagine these will be any different...

About half the Ubers I get in have overpowering air "fresheners" (perfumes). I'll always roll down a window unless the driver has disabled it (which is one more thing not to like about Ubers).

Without those perfumes the scent of vomit and faeces would be more present.

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#209
post #173
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that a function of the limited population in the beta though?

It's a function of the filtered population. The cars are at full capacity day and night so the increased number of users won't affect a single car's cleanliness nearly as much as the type of people that will be riding in them.

What do you mean by the type of people who will be riding in them?

Re: Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

#210
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d say the same, maybe. But yesterday I had an Uber with a guy that had a degree in history and a love for SF lore, and told me about the tomb of Starr King, and then I went on a quest to find it with my friend. Just saying that there’s magic out there that’s not technological.

Not so difficult to add this feature with the help of human like voice and LLM backend.

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