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Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

nytimes.com

61–70 of 113 posts

Re: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

#61
post #26

> It’s an early but telling sign of the broader distress brewing in the commercial real estate market, which is hurting from the twin punches of high interest rates, which make it harder to refinance loans, and low occupancy rates for office buildings — an outcome of the pandemic. And that's what I think is behind much of the push for RTO. While a lot (if not most) office space is rented, corporate executives are the…

Real estate infuriates me to the point that I find myself hoping it burns to the ground and that the whole industry suffers. “Real estate always goes up” is treated like a damn entitlement to the point that the financial well being of everyone under 40 today has been sacrificed to it. In 2008 it felt like the entire real economy was put on the chopping block to bail it out. I’d love for a real estate market that look…

Hear hear. It's time for a teddy Roosevelt figure to come along and gut real estate investors.

Re: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then, just take the example and imagine they declare bankruptcy. That loan is going to be worth 0 in the vast majority of cases. Loans go to zero. It happens in real estate, it happens in oil and gas, it happens in other places I'm sure. It's not especially common, but it happens.

>> Then, just take the example and imagine they declare bankruptcy. That loan is going to be worth 0 in the vast majority of cases. >> Loans go to zero. It happens in real estate, it happens in oil and gas, it happens in other places I'm sure. It's not especially common, but it happens. It is common, but at the end of a cycle. The chances of second lien loans being worth zero are higher and higher as leverage increas…

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Re: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

#63

> It’s an early but telling sign of the broader distress brewing in the commercial real estate market, which is hurting from the twin punches of high interest rates, which make it harder to refinance loans, and low occupancy rates for office buildings — an outcome of the pandemic. And that's what I think is behind much of the push for RTO. While a lot (if not most) office space is rented, corporate executives are the…

> corporate executives are the kind of people who could have a lot of money invested in commercial real estate

Sure, many of them do.

But there's something else they are far more invested in: their company (through huge pay and even larger stock option grants).

I don't buy this meme that CxOs are willing to hurt company efficiency just to protect personal real estate investments, when for nearly all executive (I'm sure there's some exception but not enough to matter) they own far more share in the company than in their side business in real estate.

Re: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. The de-risking of the housing market has been disastrous for The de-risking has come in the form of artificial scarcity caused by zoning gatekeeping and outdated fire code, amongst other things. It’s time North America took a hard look at the root causes and fixes them before there is a crisis of confidence in leadership (which is already happened to me - I’m moving out instead of buying in to the insanity.)

None of that would be a problem if people could just build. We need to double the number of bedrooms in most major cities.

You probably mean we need to double the number of bedrooms available for sale/rent

Re: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

#65
post #63

> It’s an early but telling sign of the broader distress brewing in the commercial real estate market, which is hurting from the twin punches of high interest rates, which make it harder to refinance loans, and low occupancy rates for office buildings — an outcome of the pandemic. And that's what I think is behind much of the push for RTO. While a lot (if not most) office space is rented, corporate executives are the…

> corporate executives are the kind of people who could have a lot of money invested in commercial real estate Sure, many of them do. But there's something else they are far more invested in: their company (through huge pay and even larger stock option grants). I don't buy this meme that CxOs are willing to hurt company efficiency just to protect personal real estate investments, when for nearly all executive (I'm su…

Agreed. But, companies are owned primarily by funds that in turn are exposed. If there is some pressuring to save real estate, it’s not the C suite, it’s the stockholding giants

Re: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

#66
post #36

I live in perpetual wonder that here in the US I have locked in a 30 year 2.3% mortgage, which I use for leverage, whereas back home in the UK people have to refinance every 2-5 years and so their mortgages trend roughly over the prevailing base rate for the term of the mortgage. Yes this article is about commercial real estate but it shows something is actually very broken from a credit market perspective - my loan…

You can get a fixed 30 year mortgage in the UK. Most people choose not to. There's nothing intrinsicly different about mortgages in the UK compared to the US.

Re: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

#67
post #65
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> corporate executives are the kind of people who could have a lot of money invested in commercial real estate Sure, many of them do. But there's something else they are far more invested in: their company (through huge pay and even larger stock option grants). I don't buy this meme that CxOs are willing to hurt company efficiency just to protect personal real estate investments, when for nearly all executive (I'm su…

Agreed. But, companies are owned primarily by funds that in turn are exposed. If there is some pressuring to save real estate, it’s not the C suite, it’s the stockholding giants

I think this doesn't get enough attention. The biggest shareholders in many companies are index funds like Vanguard and BlackRock, which often have the right to vote on behalf of the shares in their ETFs. Their interests are in ensuring the entire ETF goes up, and a real estate deleveraging would do the opposite.

Re: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. The de-risking of the housing market has been disastrous for The de-risking has come in the form of artificial scarcity caused by zoning gatekeeping and outdated fire code, amongst other things. It’s time North America took a hard look at the root causes and fixes them before there is a crisis of confidence in leadership (which is already happened to me - I’m moving out instead of buying in to the insanity.)

> The de-risking of the housing market has been disastrous for not(1%class) fify, the problems are class-based, not age/generation-based. the intergenerational conflict is fed by the 1% to keep us from paying attention to how they are robbing us.

It's both. The class of younger generations who can afford to be homeowners is much smaller than it was when previous generations were that age. Sure, it was never easy for most 30 year olds to buy a home but now a 30 year old has had to have a LOT of things swing their way to even consider it.

Re: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. The de-risking of the housing market has been disastrous for The de-risking has come in the form of artificial scarcity caused by zoning gatekeeping and outdated fire code, amongst other things. It’s time North America took a hard look at the root causes and fixes them before there is a crisis of confidence in leadership (which is already happened to me - I’m moving out instead of buying in to the insanity.)

> The de-risking of the housing market has been disastrous for not(1%class) fify, the problems are class-based, not age/generation-based. the intergenerational conflict is fed by the 1% to keep us from paying attention to how they are robbing us.

I don’t mind this narrative and you’re true in most areas, but home ownership is so tightly correlated with generation OP’s comment in not incorrect.

At every age baby boomers were more likely to own a home than millennials at the same age.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synops...

Re: Fearing losses, banks are quietly dumping real estate loans

#70
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. But, companies are owned primarily by funds that in turn are exposed. If there is some pressuring to save real estate, it’s not the C suite, it’s the stockholding giants

I think this doesn't get enough attention. The biggest shareholders in many companies are index funds like Vanguard and BlackRock, which often have the right to vote on behalf of the shares in their ETFs. Their interests are in ensuring the entire ETF goes up, and a real estate deleveraging would do the opposite.

>> Their interests are in ensuring the entire ETF goes up...

Things like automatic enrolment in 401K plans, or automatically bumping employee contributions by 1 percent will also benefit the broad market and funds.

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