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Barcelona will eliminate tourist apartments

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Re: Barcelona will eliminate tourist apartments

#371

Post by codemac »

verteu wrote: post #355
codemac wrote: post #78

This sounds silly. 70% is ~5.4% yearly, 40% is 3.4% growth yearly. Seems, fine? These are incredibly reasonable growth rates. Am I missing something?

You are missing that Spain's economy is not growing like the USA's. Spanish wages grew only 2.7%/yr L10Y [1], and its nominal GDP/capita looks completely flat [2]. This explains why the city is affordable for international tourists but not locals. Regardless, a high "tourist tax" would probably be better for their economy than an outright ban. [1] https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=59150 [2] Compare https://www.wo…

At 2.7% that's 2.7% and .7% growth faster than wages.

Let's look at the bay's wage growth[0]: 11% (or ~1%/yr) from 2010-2020, but they removed CPI-U inflation[1], so it's something higher (annual was ~1-3% in that time period). Which puts the bay area housing at 5%+ higher growth, 2x to 7x worse than Spain.

So, once again - Spain is doing well when it comes to housing prices. Tourism frustrates locals because they think it's increased their housing costs wildly - but in fact it's because their economy is switching to a tourist economy unless they find an industry to grow.

[0]: https://bayareaequityatlas.org/indicators/income-growth?year... [1]: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0&output_view=pct_...

Re: Barcelona will eliminate tourist apartments

#372

Post by verteu »

codemac wrote: post #371
verteu wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are missing that Spain's economy is not growing like the USA's. Spanish wages grew only 2.7%/yr L10Y [1], and its nominal GDP/capita looks completely flat [2]. This explains why the city is affordable for international tourists but not locals. Regardless, a high "tourist tax" would probably be better for their economy than an outright ban. [1] https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=59150 [2] Compare https://www.wo…

At 2.7% that's 2.7% and .7% growth faster than wages. Let's look at the bay's wage growth[0]: 11% (or ~1%/yr) from 2010-2020, but they removed CPI-U inflation[1], so it's something higher (annual was ~1-3% in that time period). Which puts the bay area housing at 5%+ higher growth, 2x to 7x worse than Spain. So, once again - Spain is doing well when it comes to housing prices. Tourism frustrates locals because they th…

I don't follow your calculations; It appears you're doing arithmetic with CAGRs from three different date ranges (2010-2020, 2012-2019, and L10Y).

An apples-to-apples comparison illustrates my point:

L10Y cumulative change in:

Bay Area rent: +46.0% [0]

Bay Area wages: +45.7% [1]

Vs:

Barcelona rent: +70% (if we believe TFA)

Spain wages: +30% [2]

Or:

Cumulative 2010-2020 change in:

Bay Area rent: +57% [0]

Bay Area wages: +34% [1]

which also looks bad (but not as bad as Barcelona L10Y). Indeed, there were lots of complaints about housing costs in SF then.

[0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA422SEHA [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06418840500000003 [2] https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=59150

Re: Barcelona will eliminate tourist apartments

#373

Post by kranke155 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #304
kranke155 wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im not saying one should ignore it. Just that it’s not a particularly good industry for a country, particularly poor countries. The pay in tourism is terrible, usually minimum wage, except for the owners of capital, who gain enormous returns on investing in hotels / airbnbs / tourist aimed businesses. That means it has an awful return for the ones most in need which are the poor. It’s not a distributive industry. On…

> Can tourism be A PART of a healthy economy ? Sure. But it shouldn’t be in charge of that economy This is true of any sector. New York get volatile when over-reliant on FIRE; San Francisco goes into a depression when valuations dip. Also, this is a story about Barcelona. An industrial city. Tourism is a minority.

Tourism has widely distorted market prices for housing and accommodation in Barcelona however. Proving it can have very nefarious effects even in relatively diverse economies.

Re: Barcelona will eliminate tourist apartments

#374

Post by corinroyal »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #300
JeremyNT wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reads like the Nirvana Fallacy to me [0]. Will this move solve the problem? No, but what alternative are you comparing it to where it fares so poorly? I suspect even the staunchest proponents of unregulated construction of denser housing would only claim that it mitigates the problems of housing affordability, not that it solves them. This new STR policy could be one of many pieces of the puzzle. [0] https://en.…

Unregulated construction of denser housing solves housing affordability. It doesnt make housing free, but if we built china style mega towers with minimal regulation housing would be affordable for most people working full time.

Yes, let's replicate the model that was a famous disaster for China. Why do people feel the need to pontificate on issues they never bothered to learn about?

Re: Barcelona will eliminate tourist apartments

#375

Post by codemac »

verteu wrote: post #372
codemac wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At 2.7% that's 2.7% and .7% growth faster than wages. Let's look at the bay's wage growth[0]: 11% (or ~1%/yr) from 2010-2020, but they removed CPI-U inflation[1], so it's something higher (annual was ~1-3% in that time period). Which puts the bay area housing at 5%+ higher growth, 2x to 7x worse than Spain. So, once again - Spain is doing well when it comes to housing prices. Tourism frustrates locals because they th…

I don't follow your calculations; It appears you're doing arithmetic with CAGRs from three different date ranges (2010-2020, 2012-2019, and L10Y). An apples-to-apples comparison illustrates my point: L10Y cumulative change in: Bay Area rent: +46.0% [0] Bay Area wages: +45.7% [1] Vs: Barcelona rent: +70% (if we believe TFA) Spain wages: +30% [2] Or: Cumulative 2010-2020 change in: Bay Area rent: +57% [0] Bay Area wage…

Yeah I didn't have good data sources, and took shortcuts on the math.

I guess it just doesn't look bad to me in terms of their real estate, thanks for pointing me to these better data sources.

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