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Can men live without war? (1956)

theatlantic.com

191–200 of 237 posts

Re: Can men live without war? (1956)

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Artificial scarcity, the proposal is for the elimination of the ability of owning classes to restrict supply of a given good through various means. That said, >100 years in the future it could be possible to make more land with rotating habitats in space, which would functionally eliminate land scarcity.

I would think I creating islands would be the first stop for "more land in good places" considering it's already possible.

It's much more economically viable, but it comes with a lot of ecological and environmental risk that we care about a lot more now (which is right and good). Same with preserving Antarctica, the other one people always bring up. The fact is we care hugely about the environment in the modern day, people who don't care about the environment are a loud minority, so in terms of making new habitable land on a large scale space is the most realistic even though it's more difficult in an economic and engineering sense.

Re: Can men live without war? (1956)

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The weaker version of madman scenario is a head of state believing they can use nukes in a limited scope to achieve its political goals. Imagine this scenario: the war in Ukraine goes for some more time, Russia starts to have economic problems and is desperate to settle it (without having to compromise), force Ukraine to surrender and demand sanctions to be lifted. So he uses a couple of small tactical nukes along th…

Note that the smallest tactical nuke, the Davy Crockett, is One-Million times smaller than the largest nuke ever tested (The Tzar Bomba). USA Policy is that all nukes are nukes. The idea being that we've never wargamed a scenario where small nukes were used that didn't turn into the treadmill of larger and larger nukes anyway. (Well, they used a 50 ton nuke. We should respond with a 500ton nuke, then they respond wit…

So the minute a 'Small Nuke' is used, we should just respond with the biggest nuke.

In any case the U.S. has stated that it won't do that unless it was a close strike against a very close ally (NATO partner or similar, or their deployed units). Most likely won't reciprocate to a nuclear strike against just Ukraine (provided it were of "limited" scope such as a warning or sequence of tactical shots).

Re: Can men live without war? (1956)

#194
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would you propose as an alternative?

Don’t work on terrible weapons. If you’re smart enough to create them you’re smart enough not to misuse them. But the last act in creation is relinquishing control. You’re putting them in the hands of people who aren’t smart enough to build them. And you don’t get to choose who that is. The US president who bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki didn’t even fully understand that he was bombing civilian targets. How could he b…

Without the ability to keep other people from creating them, not creating them is suicide.

Re: Can men live without war? (1956)

#195
post #32
post #23

The thing is without force your stuff gets taken. We haven't got a good way around this. Our current peace is heavily based on nuclear weapons and the implied threat of force. Don't like the status quo? Use force to try to change it. Do like the status quo? Use force to try to keep it that way. We don't have a stable equiliubrium where no force exists in the system. Many in this thread effectively say "You can do wha…

You have a nice theory there, would be a shame if something happened to it. I played this older computer civilization-like space game. In it, there was an hyperaggressive race that always went to war with everybody. They always died out first. I think conflict will always exist, but violence? I am not sure. I think it comes down to availability of information. People don't like a*holes. Once world becomes a global vi…

> People don't like a*holes.

And yet they manage to get elected to office and hired as CEOs.

Re: Can men live without war? (1956)

#196
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

very admirable. prepare to be invaded.

When is the last time Switzerland has been invaded? Or at war? And I am sure that Swiss men don't feel like peace is any threat to their manliness either.

Helps when you're willing to bank Nazis gold while the rest of the continent was being conquered or trying to resist. Also helps to have US led NATO provide cover against the Soviets.

Re: Can men live without war? (1956)

#197
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither seems realistic or achievable, except the latter by nuclear armageddon.

Depopulation is super easy. Provide universal access to contraception and give people the choice to not have babies. Evidence shows that works.

>Provide universal access to contraception and give people the choice to not have babies. Evidence shows that works.

Not realistically achievable within my kid's lifetimes.

Re: Can men live without war? (1956)

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The weaker version of madman scenario is a head of state believing they can use nukes in a limited scope to achieve its political goals. Imagine this scenario: the war in Ukraine goes for some more time, Russia starts to have economic problems and is desperate to settle it (without having to compromise), force Ukraine to surrender and demand sanctions to be lifted. So he uses a couple of small tactical nukes along th…

Note that the smallest tactical nuke, the Davy Crockett, is One-Million times smaller than the largest nuke ever tested (The Tzar Bomba). USA Policy is that all nukes are nukes. The idea being that we've never wargamed a scenario where small nukes were used that didn't turn into the treadmill of larger and larger nukes anyway. (Well, they used a 50 ton nuke. We should respond with a 500ton nuke, then they respond wit…

> So the minute a 'Small Nuke' is used, we should just respond with the biggest nuke. No point dilly dallying, if we are all going to die we might as well get it over with faster and in a way that is to our advantage.

Yeah, it's one of those crazy nuclear doctrines. Another is Launch on Warning, or the idea you can use nukes tactically without escalation.

Now, think about what's the point of publishing such strategic information? Isn't it a huge disadvantage when the enemy can anticipate how you will respond? In reality, you declassify information which you want that your enemy knows. These mentioned policies are meant as a deterrence, they're a bit of "playing madman" captured as a policy, because they're thought to provide an advantage when the enemy believes them.

I believe that the US has war game scenarios where one side uses a nuke, without the situation escalating into an all-out war, but these are extremely sensitive and thus highly secret. You don't want your enemy to believe there is some way where they can get away with using nukes, so in public you only mention the doomsday scenarios.

So, overall, I believe that the actual nuclear doctrine differs from the one published and should be less crazy. Note also that the head of states are not bound by the doctrine.

> The issue is that Russia or China may not see it that way. They might see the small nukes as a different thing that doesn't deserve the response of the larger nuke.

Part of it is again the deterrence aspect. Russia has a clear conventional disadvantage in comparison to US / NATO, so threatening with tactical nukes is a way to deter NATO from directly engaging Russia. It is in Russia's advantage to at least pretend that they think that tactical nukes can be used without major escalation. Just like US wants others to think there's no way to win a nuclear exchange, Russia wants you to think there's no way to win a conventional conflict (because it will soon escalate to nukes).

I'm not saying it means they're completely bullshi*ing, but there can be again a gap between what they think and what position they're trying to project.

> Also note: we stopped making larger nukes for political reasons. There seemed to be no end to the size of 'Large' nukes. The H-Bomb seemed to scale as large as we ever wanted.

Nukes become impractically large / heavy in that size, and as you mention, more numerous smaller nukes do more damage.

10 * 10 Mt is more destructive than 1 * 100 Mt, but 1000 * 100 Kt is much more destructive still.

Re: Can men live without war? (1956)

#199
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> War between nuclear powers doesn't happen any more It didn't happen yet, but there are no is reasons for nuclear war to be avoided indefinitely.

All it takes is one madman to get near the button and gain enough power that his button-press is honored. It almost seems inevitable given a long enough time frame.

Is there a type of geo engineering that can soften the effects of a nuclear exchange?

Re: Can men live without war? (1956)

#200
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It must be repeated: Ukraine is it's own nation and Ukrainian people fight because their own decision.

No, they are fighting because the government wants it. Ukrainian men have no choice: they can't fly away from the country, they can't safely walk on the streets because the special patrol with take them to the military registration and enlistment office without consent. But some of them are really do. Stop repeating your propaganda.

All Ukrainian men fight because they are force to? Do you talk to any Ukrainean person?

Stop repeating Russian propaganda.

Also if we are here: Do you Russian think, Russian soldiers like to die in meat waves?

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