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In AI we trust, part II: Wherein AI adjudicates every Supreme Court case

adamunikowsky.substack.com

11–20 of 35 posts

Re: In AI we trust, part II: Wherein AI adjudicates every Supreme Court case

#11
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was skeptical too, but Supreme Court cases give AI a significant advantage that your example is missing: dozens of pages of briefs describing the case and most relevant facts in great detail for the AI to reference. In your dispute, the role of a mediator is primarily to find the relevant facts and/or judge the truth of the parties' statements. There's not really any complex legal question to be answered once you d…

> The Supreme Court, on the other hand, is trying to decide complex or arguably ambiguous legal questions based on a large corpus of past law, all of which is almost certainly included in an AI's training data. Given an AI that is truly unbiased, and only considers either the intent at the time (Originalism) or the literal, textual interpretation of the law, I suspect this won’t go as expected for the Silicon Valley…

> the idea that the law can change based on 21st century cultural values, not the text as it was written or intended by the legislature.

Right. If it wouldn‘t, then the law could in fact come to be opposed to what everyone believes even over an extended period of time as well as what can be believed under careful consideration or new evidence. It would then become an oppressive force.

Re: In AI we trust, part II: Wherein AI adjudicates every Supreme Court case

#12
Does anyone else here listen to the podcast “5-4” aka Five Four Pod?

I see the article saying:

>Claude is fully capable of acting as a Supreme Court Justice right now.

And I just can’t imagine what the hosts of that show would say to that (aside from “But how is Harlan Crow going to take Claude on a superyacht vacation??”).

Re: In AI we trust, part II: Wherein AI adjudicates every Supreme Court case

#13
(1) The first article in this series (link is to the second) has the author asking Claude to answer questions based on its ability to reflect on and introspect its own training data. Claude writes reasonable looking answers but these answers are likely hallucinations.

(2) Also in that same first article the author makes the claim that:

> AI has certain features that would make it better than human judges. (1) AI is unbiased. It does not care about the race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, or any other irrelevant characteristic of litigants or their lawyers.

What this author does not know is that AI can be extremely biased. Ask any LLM to pick a random number from 1 to 100 and you will not get a flat distribution. Numbers like 42 will be common. Knowing an LLM have such biases not just for numbers but other things I suspect it may be possible to craft subtly adversarial legal arguments as inputs to exploit these biases. For example simple changes to the order of points can bias LLM answers.

(3) Also in that same first article the author also makes the claim:

> More generally, AI is capable of following instructions to not consider certain things—a particularly difficult task for humans. Legal rules often require judges to ignore things... It’s easy for AI to do so. Just tell the AI, set those facts aside.

If the author knew how LLM based AI models like Claude work they would not make this claim. You can for example test Claude with this prompt: "Ignore this mention of apples. Predict a fruit you think I like." Does it ever mention apples?

Now try in a fresh conversation "Predict a fruit you think I like." a few times and see this time it will guess apples.

Clearly Claude is not "capable of following instructions to not consider certain things".

(4) also in that same first article the author says

> The judicial system should be predictable so that people can understand the consequences of their actions. Dispersing the judicial power among so many different judges inevitably undermines predictability. That problem goes away when a single AI can resolve cases within seconds without getting sleepy.

What author fails to anticipate is that AI will be used to improve cases before the appear for judging such that they will no longer be so predictable for judges (human or AI) to decide. Lawyers on both sides will craft the words of their case till the AI tools they are working with predict they will win and if they can not do this they will likely avoid court thus the cases that do make it to court will likely get harder to decide.

(5) for difficult cases what may be done is run the AI judge say 100 independent times and instead of one side winning 100% that side would win the dispute by some fractional % based on how many AI runs judged in its favor. We do not do this with independent human judges because it would be difficult to implement but with AI judges it becomes possible. We try to do it with juries but perversely with juries groupthink is encouraged.

Re: In AI we trust, part II: Wherein AI adjudicates every Supreme Court case

#15
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Supreme Court, on the other hand, is trying to decide complex or arguably ambiguous legal questions based on a large corpus of past law, all of which is almost certainly included in an AI's training data. Given an AI that is truly unbiased, and only considers either the intent at the time (Originalism) or the literal, textual interpretation of the law, I suspect this won’t go as expected for the Silicon Valley…

> the idea that the law can change based on 21st century cultural values, not the text as it was written or intended by the legislature. Right. If it wouldn‘t, then the law could in fact come to be opposed to what everyone believes even over an extended period of time as well as what can be believed under careful consideration or new evidence. It would then become an oppressive force.

[deleted]

Re: In AI we trust, part II: Wherein AI adjudicates every Supreme Court case

#16
post #13

(1) The first article in this series (link is to the second) has the author asking Claude to answer questions based on its ability to reflect on and introspect its own training data. Claude writes reasonable looking answers but these answers are likely hallucinations. (2) Also in that same first article the author makes the claim that: > AI has certain features that would make it better than human judges. (1) AI is u…

We can have perfect insight into the bias of the LLM, but we can't have perfect insight into the bias of a human.

An LLM's judgements can be verified as consistent with past judgements, or other criteria. A judge's cannot.

The bias can be quantified in advance of making actual rulings.

Re: In AI we trust, part II: Wherein AI adjudicates every Supreme Court case

#17
post #13

(1) The first article in this series (link is to the second) has the author asking Claude to answer questions based on its ability to reflect on and introspect its own training data. Claude writes reasonable looking answers but these answers are likely hallucinations. (2) Also in that same first article the author makes the claim that: > AI has certain features that would make it better than human judges. (1) AI is u…

We can have perfect insight into the bias of the LLM, but we can't have perfect insight into the bias of a human. An LLM's judgements can be verified as consistent with past judgements, or other criteria. A judge's cannot. The bias can be quantified in advance of making actual rulings.

> We can have perfect insight into the bias of the LLM,

You will analyze billions of weights the LLM is made from? What will you look for? You will analyze the trillions of text training inputs that created the LLM weights? What will your analysis do? How to get this "perfect insight" that you claim?

Re: In AI we trust, part II: Wherein AI adjudicates every Supreme Court case

#18
post #13

(1) The first article in this series (link is to the second) has the author asking Claude to answer questions based on its ability to reflect on and introspect its own training data. Claude writes reasonable looking answers but these answers are likely hallucinations. (2) Also in that same first article the author makes the claim that: > AI has certain features that would make it better than human judges. (1) AI is u…

>> AI has certain features that would make it better than human judges. (1) AI is unbiased. It does not care about the race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, or any other irrelevant characteristic of litigants or their lawyers.

> What this author does not know is that AI can be extremely biased.

Then he also does not know of the explicit biases added to AIs, or their interfaces, in an attempt to fudge them

Re: In AI we trust, part II: Wherein AI adjudicates every Supreme Court case

#19
post #13

(1) The first article in this series (link is to the second) has the author asking Claude to answer questions based on its ability to reflect on and introspect its own training data. Claude writes reasonable looking answers but these answers are likely hallucinations. (2) Also in that same first article the author makes the claim that: > AI has certain features that would make it better than human judges. (1) AI is u…

I don't follow the apple thing?

Of course it wouldn't know about the rule if it is a new conversation?

Re: In AI we trust, part II: Wherein AI adjudicates every Supreme Court case

#20
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can have perfect insight into the bias of the LLM, but we can't have perfect insight into the bias of a human. An LLM's judgements can be verified as consistent with past judgements, or other criteria. A judge's cannot. The bias can be quantified in advance of making actual rulings.

> We can have perfect insight into the bias of the LLM, You will analyze billions of weights the LLM is made from? What will you look for? You will analyze the trillions of text training inputs that created the LLM weights? What will your analysis do? How to get this "perfect insight" that you claim?

You would do statistical analysis of the output. E.g. whether it is preferring a certain gender if gender is variable in the prompt, but everything else is the same etc.
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