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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#211

Post by mlindner »

hbarka wrote: post #120
hankman86 wrote: post #64

They should teach Tesla’s “autopilot” (and its FSD upgrade) in business schools. Turns out you can sustainably push up company valuation on vapourware. You have to wonder if Tesla’s autonomous driving technology was actually ever meant to turn into a product. Or whether it is mostly a tool to justify the lofty Tesla stock price. I very much doubt that it is technologically ahead of its competitors.

Ford’s Blue Cruise is hands-off in mapped highways. Waymo is driverless. Musk is really getting away with all the hype for what Tesla cruise control delivers.

Ford's Blue Cruise is not hands-off on mapped highways, only on portions of some highways where curves are shallow. And it can suddenly demand you take over in a failure mode that completely disables itself forcing you to instantly take over in a split second.

Also it still kills people: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgFPW5esM04

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#212

Post by tsimionescu »

make_it_sure wrote: post #73
tsimionescu wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's only a matter of time" means nothing. It was only a matter of time in Cesar's age before we got supercomputers and planes. Tesla is near the bottom of the pack on self-driving tech, with no real hopes of going beyond the level 2 self-driving of FSD, which is objectively worse than just driving yourself. There are already multiple companies with either actual self-driving fleets (e.g. Waymo) or limited use cases…

you're so wrong. do more research. Driving on a geo-fenced area is much much simple than what Tesla is trying. Eventually they can do that as well without problems if they can't generalise.

Sure, but "we're trying something harder" doesn't mean anything. Waymo is succeeding at a well defined, useful form of driverless tech. They will probably be able to extend this, maybe slowly, to more and more cities.

Tesla is failing at everything they're promising, and not delivering anything useful along the way (FSD as it exists today is more dangerous and more demanding than regular driving).

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#213

Post by krzyk »

debatem1 wrote: post #198
blackeyeblitzar wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is Nvidia's CEO just saying this because Waymo doesn't buy GPUs from them? Waymo works in limited places and relies on a ridiculous number of sensors. Have you seen one in real life with all its equipment? Surely that makes it less advanced or at less ambitious. Assuming something malicious about Nvidia’s CEO seems like a big leap.

Ambition isn't the goal, self driving is. Who cares how many sensors it has as long as it works?

Well, if something will be prohibitively price it is just like not existing.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#214

Post by lll-o-lll »

lagadu wrote: post #181
hankman86 wrote: post #64

They should teach Tesla’s “autopilot” (and its FSD upgrade) in business schools. Turns out you can sustainably push up company valuation on vapourware. You have to wonder if Tesla’s autonomous driving technology was actually ever meant to turn into a product. Or whether it is mostly a tool to justify the lofty Tesla stock price. I very much doubt that it is technologically ahead of its competitors.

While I agree that Tesla is nowhere close to having an actually autonomous driving system, I think that Tesla did invest more into research and probably collected more data than anyone else on the market. This amount of research has to have some results, even if they don't have a product yet.

Yep, because if you want something bad enough, and if it’s clearly possible, enough research will get us there! Except: commercially viable fusion, quantum computers, hyper loops, AGI, interstellar space travel. Hmmm.

That’s the problem with research; much of it turns out to be a dead-end, or exponentially more difficult as you approach the goal. FSD looked extremely likely there for a time, but I think the problem was actually AGI in disguise.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#215

Post by catlikesshrimp »

DennisP wrote: post #157
grumbelbart wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But "works in limited cases" is absolutely not enough, given what it promises. It drove into static objects a couple of times, killing people. Recent videos still show behavior like speeding through stop signs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGOo06xzCeU&t=990s Meaning that it's really not reliable enough to take your hands off the wheel. Waymo shows that it is possible, with today's technology, to do much much bette…

It's not enough for robotaxis yet, and Tesla doesn't claim that it is. They just think they'll get there. What they do claim is that with human supervision, it lowers the accident rate to one per 5.5 million miles, which is a lot better than the overall accident rate for all cars on the road. And unlike Waymo, it works everywhere. That's worthwhile even if it never improves from here. Fwiw you can take your hands off…

The product doesn't work until the human can be human instead of telling followers only subhumans complain.

Being more specific: Product either requires a certification, like a driving license, or is foolproof.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#216

Post by blueboo »

hankman86 wrote: post #64

They should teach Tesla’s “autopilot” (and its FSD upgrade) in business schools. Turns out you can sustainably push up company valuation on vapourware. You have to wonder if Tesla’s autonomous driving technology was actually ever meant to turn into a product. Or whether it is mostly a tool to justify the lofty Tesla stock price. I very much doubt that it is technologically ahead of its competitors.

Fake it til you make it is a fundamental principle of startups. We just don’t usually see it at such a vast scale.

There’s a timeline where Theranos was acquired for 9b by UnitedHealth if they could keep the grift alive juuust a bit longer and Elizabeth Holmes ascends to the tech firmament permanently while her enablers congratulate each other.

Tesla has even more and deeper financial and branding defense mechanisms. That said, the clock is ticking, now, I think

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#217

Post by pas »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #196
hankman86 wrote: post #64

They should teach Tesla’s “autopilot” (and its FSD upgrade) in business schools. Turns out you can sustainably push up company valuation on vapourware. You have to wonder if Tesla’s autonomous driving technology was actually ever meant to turn into a product. Or whether it is mostly a tool to justify the lofty Tesla stock price. I very much doubt that it is technologically ahead of its competitors.

Give it some time ! When the dust settles, it will certainly be taught in business schools. And Musk will be in prison (not for FSD specifically). I watched the shareholders meeting yesterday - it was amazing. Elon repeated all the same things, he kept telling for the past 5 years at least, none of which is close to become a reality. And none was described in any tangible detail - all very vague promises. As for FSD,…

as GME, that trump social thing, et al. already showed it a couple of times fundamentals don't matter. Tesla is held by folks who either don't care (ETFs, institutions, hedge funds, blablabla) or Elondong lovers.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#218

Post by TheAlchemist »

lukan wrote: post #205
TheAlchemist wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give it some time ! When the dust settles, it will certainly be taught in business schools. And Musk will be in prison (not for FSD specifically). I watched the shareholders meeting yesterday - it was amazing. Elon repeated all the same things, he kept telling for the past 5 years at least, none of which is close to become a reality. And none was described in any tangible detail - all very vague promises. As for FSD,…

"And Musk will be in prison" Or closer to formal political power.

Yep, agree ! Sad as it is.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#219

Post by mlindner »

lucianbr wrote: post #154
drcode wrote: post #131

I have FSD v12 and for my drives, in my part of the country, I have to do a mild safety intervention maybe once a week (like, getting closer to another car than I'm comfortable with) sorry other people are having different experiences, but FSD is a significant quality of life improvement for me. Nothing is nicer than getting in the car after a long day and letting it chauffeur me home. (yes I still pay attention)

I wonder if the guy who died when his Telsa drove under a truck would have written a similar comment the day before. What do you think? I mean this one: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2023/t...

Why do people keep bringing up this incident that happened in the very early days of the system when it wasn't even called FSD? It isn't representative.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#220

Post by throw0101d »

deng wrote: post #134
devnull3 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> old Italian city Try traffic in India [1][2] If it were a game, then India will be the last boss fight in ultra-hard mode. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs [2] https://youtu.be/WC2FUEmKEu8?t=412

It already fails in Manhattan. I know that by US standards, the traffic in Manhattan is already considered chaos, but it's usually pretty tame compared to other countries. There are these videos by this HUGE Tesla fanboy, just look here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo_hC84OSwg where at 8:20 it fails to properly deal with a cop car and the fanboy complains that the cop did not obey traffic laws (good luck arguing t…

> where at 8:20 it fails to properly deal with a cop car and the fanboy complains that the cop did not obey traffic laws

More specifically, the cop car had its lights on and emergency siren going, so presumably was trying to respond to a call, in which case it is the responsibility of other vehicles to get out of the cop's way.

> US people might consider this "chaos", but it's perfectly normal behavior in many countries, where a red light for pedestrians is more a suggestion than a rule...

Also worth nothing the "jaywalking" is not a thing in many jurisdictions:

* https://www.vox.com/2015/1/15/7551873/jaywalking-history

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaywalking

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