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Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-8 Max Experienced Dutch Roll

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Re: Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-8 Max Experienced Dutch Roll

#221

Post by sitharus »

epolanski wrote: post #183
throwup238 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1) Even if the max had hiccups, plenty of them, it is an absolutely safe airplane by any measure. Except fatalities.

Even by fatalities. 737 Maxes have flown more than a couple of million of flights, at least, since they entered service, that puts their fatal incident rate at similar levels of the A320. The only two incidents, also, as you know, were related and both happened 5+ years ago.

That’s comparing apples to two sacks of apples, one of which is 30 years older.

The A320neo entered service in 2016 and has over 3,000 of the type in service and has zero fatal accidents involving passengers or flight crew (there have been five fatalities from two incidents involving runway incursions by ground crew). There have been no serious in-flight incidents.

The 737max was introduced in 2017 and has over 1500 in service, about half of the airbus A320 neo. It has had two fatal accidents resulting in 346 fatalities and one serious in-flight incident. The record is not great.

If you want to compare all 737 models back to the first flight of the A320 I’m pretty sure it’ll be closer, but flying is much safer than it was even with the 737max.

However I do believe that Boeing will resolve the issues. It will take time to fix the culture that resulted caused them though.

Re: Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-8 Max Experienced Dutch Roll

#222

Post by krisoft »

somenameforme wrote: post #213
krisoft wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You're having a failure where you keep misreading something the same way. And you are having a failure where you are not quoting what you think I'm misreading. Look at the table. First column labeled "ACCIDENT TYPE". Second row first column "All accident rate (accidents per one million flights)". Last column labeled "5-YEAR AVERAGE (2019-2023)" The data in second row last column "1.19 (1 accident every 0.88 million…

Ahhh!!! I see how you're reading it, and yeah - I think the mistake is much more on them than you. The parenthesis are not describing the value before them, but indicating what is IN the parenthesis! I'm the sort that ignores infographics and goes straight to the text, and it's much clearer there. Check out the report highlights: --- The all accident rate was 0.80 per million sectors in 2023 (one accident for every 1…

That explains it! Dang! Thank you for the help figuring that out.

Re: Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-8 Max Experienced Dutch Roll

#223

Post by grapescheesee »

JWlrCk9PkipFTDq wrote: post #43
kcplate wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it’s worse than it looks? The video was kind of a dramatic let down to be honest. I preferred the mystery.

It looks a bit more intense in real footage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tgfkGiHhxs

Yeah, this has some elevation reference, and much more dramatic shifting.

Re: Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-8 Max Experienced Dutch Roll

#225

Post by russfink »

exabrial wrote: post #107

What the news about Boeing has done is make me pay more attention to commercial aviation in general. The number of aviation incidents is actually pretty crazy, and no, Boeing is not at the center of them despite what the media would have you believe. What is amazing though is the actual injury and fatality rate is really low due to well trained crews and measured responses by air controllers.

Potentially dumb comment, but how long until AI replaces - or at least complements - ATC personnel?

Re: Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-8 Max Experienced Dutch Roll

#226

Post by rootusrootus »

ceejayoz wrote: post #45
notfried wrote: post #10

This is what a Dutch Roll looks like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zmjam1evDD4

This seems to really under-sell the severity; the real-world example someone else linked is much more dramatic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tgfkGiHhxs

That's not real world, though, that is a demo flight where they induced a strong dutch roll on purpose.

Re: Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-8 Max Experienced Dutch Roll

#227

Post by rootusrootus »

sitharus wrote: post #221
epolanski wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even by fatalities. 737 Maxes have flown more than a couple of million of flights, at least, since they entered service, that puts their fatal incident rate at similar levels of the A320. The only two incidents, also, as you know, were related and both happened 5+ years ago.

That’s comparing apples to two sacks of apples, one of which is 30 years older. The A320neo entered service in 2016 and has over 3,000 of the type in service and has zero fatal accidents involving passengers or flight crew (there have been five fatalities from two incidents involving runway incursions by ground crew). There have been no serious in-flight incidents. The 737max was introduced in 2017 and has over 1500…

> If you want to compare all 737 models back to the first flight of the A320

That's easy, the 737 has a better record. The 737NG in particular has arguably the best safety record of any airliner ever produced.

Re: Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-8 Max Experienced Dutch Roll

#228

Post by rootusrootus »

amarant wrote: post #201
epolanski wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Even if the max had hiccups, plenty of them, it is an absolutely safe airplane by any measure. 2) Your fleet may mostly be formed by Boeing airplanes, having all of those move to Airbus airplanes is also a safety issue. Pilots have to re-learn and even forget things they accrued and evolved to react instantly for decades. At some point you need to weigh the odds of increasing human error vs relatively safer Airbus…

Everything is relative, and compared to other airplane models, the 737max has absurdly high rate of fatality flights. The only commercial model in history with a higher rate of fatal crashes, as far as I can tell, was the Concorde. And we don't use those anymore.

> Concorde

It seems like this would be a pretty big hint that you're looking at statistics the wrong way. When a single fatal crash can make your airliner the 'most dangerous statistically' then perhaps that's not a good airliner to use in any kind of comparison because the number of total flights is way too low to be meaningful.

Re: Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-8 Max Experienced Dutch Roll

#229

Post by rootusrootus »

masklinn wrote: post #28
amarant wrote: post #25

It kinda bothers me that airlines are still placing orders for new Boeing airplanes. Taking delivery of old orders is one thing, since they can't really back out of those, but placing new orders implies that some level of trust remains for this company, and I just don't see how that makes any sense at all?

Boeings are still flying, and Airbus has no availability. On the neos, they have more than a decade worth of orders, and the order book A350 is not much shorter.

Boeing has many years of backlog, too, this is really normal with airplane manufacturers. The airlines commit ahead, they wouldn't actually want to take delivery today anyway, so the manufacturing system is designed to work this way.

Re: Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-8 Max Experienced Dutch Roll

#230

Post by rootusrootus »

somenameforme wrote: post #189
krisoft wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay. So let's compare accidents per flights to accidents per trip with bike/car. IATA reports 1.19 accidents per million flights in the 2019-2023 years. [1] Your turn to find a comparable number for road vehicles. 1: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2024-releases/2024-02-28-0...

You pretty quickly shifted the goal posts there didn't you? That's for all flight vessels, not just Boeing's 737 class. You're also misreading your stats (that's per sector, not per million), but in either case I'm more interested in fatality rates. Your site gives a hull loss rate of 1 per 4.94 million flights for jets. For vehicles, the average person makes two trips a day over a total of 29.2 miles. [1] So we can…

> That's for all flight vessels, not just Boeing's 737 class

That works in your favor, though. The 737NG has a terrific record, probably the best in the industry. Including all airplanes drives the crash rate higher, which will help your comparison with other modes of travel.

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