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Gen AI will increase demand for software engineers

roarepally.com

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Re: Gen AI will increase demand for software engineers

#21
post #8
post #2

Not for RAG and Automation applications But for Fixing Hallucinated code that written by Non Software Engineers.

That is completely contingent on if present the day SWEs stop working on trying to eliminate the hallucinations.

I'm curious as to what engineering solutions you think are available to solve this problem?

All the solutions I've heard up until now is "we just need more data" which isn't particularly sustainable or something a SWE would be in charge of doing

Re: Gen AI will increase demand for software engineers

#22
post #8
post #2

Not for RAG and Automation applications But for Fixing Hallucinated code that written by Non Software Engineers.

That is completely contingent on if present the day SWEs stop working on trying to eliminate the hallucinations.

Or just getting it below the base rate of human software programmers. Humans hallucinate all the time; we've just built the systems around ourselves to tolerate a bit of silliness.

Re: Gen AI will increase demand for software engineers

#23

This article feels like stating an opinion. I suppose the autopilot analogy is at the heart of their argument but the argument as of now feels a bit too flat. There are definitely some jobs that technology completely displaced, and there are some that merely made something more accessible. For example, grinding grain with the advent of modern milling equipment vs microwaves. Milling machines make hand driven milling…

> Milling machines make hand driven milling something of a niche whereas microwaves arguable have displaced no jobs in cooking and food preparation.

I would argue that generative AI in the hands of an already skilled developer is equivalent to the mill scenario. One person's expertise leveraged by way of this tool can allow for output that is orders of magnitude greater. The mere inertia of the "machine" encourages more productivity than otherwise. It is almost as if it is pulling you forward when you use it properly. Knowing when not to use it is also very important.

The concerns over hallucinatory output do not seem as relevant to me in this scenario of highly-skilled milling machine operator. You expose yourself to something for 10k+ hours and you will immediately recognize when it does something funny. Novices will cause trouble in any domain regardless of quirks in their tools. I don't think lack of experience should be conflated with hallucinations when evaluating the impact these tools might have at large.

Re: Gen AI will increase demand for software engineers

#24
AI isn't about to become capable of doing the job of a software developer any time soon, not least because two of it's major weaknesses - extremely limited reasoning ability and extremely limited learning ability (in-context only) are the two things that software developers most heavily lean on. It's not clear whether these are things that can really be addressed without major architectural change.

There's still massive hype and group think about LLMs and what people project they will soon be able to do (or even what they can currently do - Dwarkesh's insider friends surprised it fails on Chollet's simple ARC tests!). A large part of this seems to be based on how new the tech is, and how capable it is, but people seem to be forgetting that the capability is based on brute force training time gradient descent. There is no runtime gradient descent or any alternative runtime learning method ... just limited in-context learning by example.

Re: Gen AI will increase demand for software engineers

#25
post #2

Not for RAG and Automation applications But for Fixing Hallucinated code that written by Non Software Engineers.

Human engineers of course never make mistakes, which is why we don't have PRs or unit or integration tests and canary deploys or anything that would catch mistakes before going to production because that would be a waste of time.

Re: Gen AI will increase demand for software engineers

#26
post #9
post #2

Not for RAG and Automation applications But for Fixing Hallucinated code that written by Non Software Engineers.

It's frustrating just how shit AI is at coding. The new gpt model seems even worse, splurging out a load of guff that makes it even more difficult to see the bullshit it's produced. AI a threat to humanity, my ass.

Weird, I find that I get very good results with GPT-4 and GPT-4o. It helps to be in a position where you can communicate very explicit instructions on what and how to build. Use it like you’re planning what to code each step but just letting this mechanism do the typing. General writing and technical communication skills are a must so I can understand why some developers struggle with LLMs.

Re: Gen AI will increase demand for software engineers

#28

It’s weird that there’s people who seem to be “against” AI assisted programming. That’s like being against IDEs or git. It’s like writers who were brought up on typewriters being against word processors.

There are different reasons.

Some people are against a technology which isn't mature enough. I don't know about word processors, but take digital photography for example. Some people stuck with film photography even after digital became cool because it was superior in some regards (such as dynamic range). Once digital improved in every way over film, those people moved too.

Another reason is job security. Why would someone support something that will leave him homeless and destitute just because the software will be superior?

Personally, I think that software engineering jobs will go up while AI assisted programming is perfected (10-20 years), and afterwards there will be a huge decline (10x shrinkage) once the tools won't need people anymore.

Re: Gen AI will increase demand for software engineers

#30
post #8
post #2

Not for RAG and Automation applications But for Fixing Hallucinated code that written by Non Software Engineers.

That is completely contingent on if present the day SWEs stop working on trying to eliminate the hallucinations.

The fundamental technology of LLMs *is* statistical hallucination. What's the probability of a sequence of tokens given a context? That's what LLMs answer.

I am not one to talk in absolutes but the basic circumstances of current LLMs have hallucination at their core and can likely not be guaranteed fact based. It's just an expression of likelihood where you rely on your training data to contain truths.

This is why OpenAI gives more weight to Wikipedia than Reddit comments - the model contains no reasoning mechanism.

It ought to be treated more as a fallible human rather than a superintelligent lookup resource based on fact checked data.

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