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Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

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Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#71

Post by JumpCrisscross »

criddell wrote: post #59
init2null wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be tough for Russian pride to see their nation sink to the level of North Korea as a dependent of China. Given the brilliance of the USSR's scientific developments, it's a long way down.

I think it's going to be closer to how a bunch of countries in Africa are being hollowed out by China. Russia is loaded with natural resources and I expect control of most of them to fall into Chinese hands over the next 20-50 years. Putin may have wanted to reassemble the USSR but in reality he's weakening Russia so much China will eventually control all of it. North Korea, on the other hand, doesn't have much to of…

> expect control of most of them to fall into Chinese hands over the next 20-50 years

5 to 10 if the IEA is correct [1].

[1] https://www.axios.com/2024/06/12/oil-peak-demand-iea-project...

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#72

Post by lolinder »

endofreach wrote: post #63
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth. Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to…

the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives. "Weapons will stop this war"? How? What's the end game? When it started the people believed it would be over in 3 days. Now all of a sudden people believe ukraine can destroy russia? How many more ukranian and russian soldiers must die? This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. But if it was, i can't see a defeated…

What do you think the feasible outcome is of Ukraine caving and yielding territory? Do you really think Russia will stop at eating up Eastern Ukraine?

Russia believes that war is the best way to get what they want. If the war in Ukraine ends with a Russian victory it won't mean world peace, it will mean we wait a few more years for Russia to build back up before it's on to the next war of aggression.

Where does it end if it doesn't end in Ukraine?

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#73

Post by pmontra »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #50
psunavy03 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you really were in the defense industry for 25 years and you're making takes like that, I can only imagine you never worked on anything of consequence. This is like saying you worked in tech for 25 years and don't get what the big deal is about version control or CI/CD. Or at least that you have no idea how your business makes money or what your users want your code for. Explainable for a new hire, but for a 25-ye…

I once spent 25 minutes having coffee with the CIA director (just the two of us) and once Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird slapped me on the back after I gave a presentation, giving me effectively an ‘atta-boy’. I was just a computer programmer, but I did OK. My friend, times change, and we need to re-evaluate the world situation, and what is in our best interests. Someone in this thread mentioned England’s reach of…

England disengaged because they could not afford to run their empire anymore. They ended up as a vassal state of the USA. They were lucky because they remained in the same general cultural area. I wonder whom the USA will be a vassal to.

BTW the UK and France resisted that disengagement when they attempted to keep Suez from Egypt in 1956 but that expedition failed, also because the USA didn't like it.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#74

Post by SXX »

contingencies wrote: post #61
zrn900 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russian banks went down en masse Huh? In what world? > the Russian narrative Dont say such things after saying stuff like you just did above. You people live in such a delusional false reality propagated by your establishment that its worse than 2003. Ukraine is 'winning' despite losing, Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy and having major increase in real wages, US economy is 'doing fine' ev…

Here's some independent data points. 1) Everyone I personally knew in Russia has left, and every international collaboration in science I have seen seems to have ended. 2) People I know who are full time online teachers report that Chinese have virtually overnight lost their spot as the most numerous students, replaced by hordes of Russians seeking to emigrate. 3) Indisputable military points of clarity from global n…

While some people do left Russia many are returning back because there are very few countries that make it easy to immigrate there from Russia and in some of them there are no jobs or no one hire english speaking staff.

Unfortunately west do nothing to deprive Russia of it's human resources. If only EU and US offered easier path for immigration there would be literally 100,000 of IT personnel who would happily left the country.

Lont-term country is gonna be in terrible conditions, but not because of people leaving.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#75

Post by mark_l_watson »

lolinder wrote: post #60
mark_l_watson wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once spent 25 minutes having coffee with the CIA director (just the two of us) and once Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird slapped me on the back after I gave a presentation, giving me effectively an ‘atta-boy’. I was just a computer programmer, but I did OK. My friend, times change, and we need to re-evaluate the world situation, and what is in our best interests. Someone in this thread mentioned England’s reach of…

> giving me effectively an ‘atta-boy’. I was just a computer programmer, but I did OK. I'm a highly respected computer programmer in my organization, but if I went in to the CEO and tried to advise him that his business strategy was wrong and he needed to do something different, he'd listen to me politely and then explain all the ways in which I misunderstood the situation. And he would be correct. You can have been…

True enough, that is why I never talked about high level strategy at work, it wasn’t my job, I was a pure tech guy, and in very narrow areas.

But this is not work, this is HN. I posted some unpopular views here and most people here disagree with me. I am good with that! It still feels good to express my opinions.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#76

Post by JumpCrisscross »

mrtksn wrote: post #44
lawn wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. You're really not looking closely. In the beginning they were invading with tanks. Now they send Chinese golf carts and mopeds to the front to power the meat grinder.

True but they are far from running out of this stuff(soldiers of any kind with any equipment) before the west. Russians have criminal level of tolerance for lost lives.

> they are far from running out of this stuff(soldiers of any kind with any equipment) before the west

They destroyed their veterans in the opening gambit. Mowing down unequipped numpties at staggering loss ratios isn’t a problem for Kyiv so long as its ammunition supplies are assured.

> Russians have criminal level of tolerance for lost lives

Russia is an empire. Moscow isn’t sending its children to the front, it’s sending Siberians and Chechens.

The mobilisation was politically difficult for Putin and damaging to Russia. There aren’t that many more Putin can pull off while retaining the public’s favour.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#77

Post by mepian »

pmontra wrote: post #73
mark_l_watson wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once spent 25 minutes having coffee with the CIA director (just the two of us) and once Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird slapped me on the back after I gave a presentation, giving me effectively an ‘atta-boy’. I was just a computer programmer, but I did OK. My friend, times change, and we need to re-evaluate the world situation, and what is in our best interests. Someone in this thread mentioned England’s reach of…

England disengaged because they could not afford to run their empire anymore. They ended up as a vassal state of the USA. They were lucky because they remained in the same general cultural area. I wonder whom the USA will be a vassal to. BTW the UK and France resisted that disengagement when they attempted to keep Suez from Egypt in 1956 but that expedition failed, also because the USA didn't like it.

Putin's propaganda really likes to portray allies as suzerains and vassals to turn them against each other.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#78

Post by pmontra »

mepian wrote: post #77
pmontra wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

England disengaged because they could not afford to run their empire anymore. They ended up as a vassal state of the USA. They were lucky because they remained in the same general cultural area. I wonder whom the USA will be a vassal to. BTW the UK and France resisted that disengagement when they attempted to keep Suez from Egypt in 1956 but that expedition failed, also because the USA didn't like it.

Putin's propaganda really likes to portray allies as suzerains and vassals to turn them against each other.

I know what Russia says about reduced sovereignity. Every world and regional power pulls the strings of their allies in their sphere of influence, Russia too.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#79

Post by JumpCrisscross »

mrtksn wrote: post #53
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society American manufacturing is at an all-time high [1]. Are you conflating manufacturing employment with power? > if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff Uh, I’m fairly deep into drone manufacturing in America. This is multi-level nonsense. One: you’re confusing quadcopters with military dro…

All time high as of producing small amount of very expensive stuff won't be good if can't produce huge amount of basic stuff. Is USA capable of producing huge number of electric motors? Other "not profitable enough to produce here" stuff? Remember how the west wasn't able to deliver enough artillery shells simply because it can't produce enough? Now it might be ramping up in the shells department but there's so many…

> All time high as of producing small amount of very expensive stuff

You’ve made a series of wrong, uncited claims. This is another one.

> Is USA capable of producing huge number of electric motors?

Siemens is the world’s largest manufacturer of electric motors. They have massive plants in Germany, Ohio and Missouri [1][2]. Toshiba, the second largest, in Houston and Canada [3]. ABB, third largest, with plants across 8 states, directed from Arkansas, as well as in India [4].

China has cheaper labour and laxer environmental laws than America. But we have some of the world’s cheapest and most-abundant energy. Motor manufacturing isn’t dirty or labour intensive. I’m not sure where your obsession with electric motors comes from, because it’s an example of Allied manufacturing vastly outstripping China.

> Remember how the west wasn't able to deliver enough artillery shells simply because it can't produce enough?

Yes, in part because we want to maintain reserves. We matched Ukraine’s military budget to the entirety of Russia’s [5]. As a side project.

[1] https://www.siemens.com/us/en/company/about/siemens-in-the-u...

[2] https://www.siemens.com/us/en/products/drives/electric-motor...

[3] https://www.toshiba.com/tic/inside-toshiba/manufacturing-ser...

[4] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABB_Motors_and_Mechanical

[5] https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/w...

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#80

Post by mark_l_watson »

pmontra wrote: post #73
mark_l_watson wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once spent 25 minutes having coffee with the CIA director (just the two of us) and once Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird slapped me on the back after I gave a presentation, giving me effectively an ‘atta-boy’. I was just a computer programmer, but I did OK. My friend, times change, and we need to re-evaluate the world situation, and what is in our best interests. Someone in this thread mentioned England’s reach of…

England disengaged because they could not afford to run their empire anymore. They ended up as a vassal state of the USA. They were lucky because they remained in the same general cultural area. I wonder whom the USA will be a vassal to. BTW the UK and France resisted that disengagement when they attempted to keep Suez from Egypt in 1956 but that expedition failed, also because the USA didn't like it.

re: “”I wonder whom the USA will be a vassal to.””

I hope not (!) and don’t think so. We have major natural resources and advantages. I can’t imagine a future where, assuming we mostly withdrew from the world’s stage, that any country would mess with us.

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