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Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

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Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#61

Post by contingencies »

zrn900 wrote: post #47
lawn wrote: post #4

It's mentioned in the article, but the reaction to the sanctions seem fairly severe? Russian banks went down en masse, the spread of foreign currencies was larger than the official numbers, and people were queuing outside the banks to withdraw money. Of course, the Russian narrative is that this will hurt the west more than it will hurt Russia...

> Russian banks went down en masse Huh? In what world? > the Russian narrative Dont say such things after saying stuff like you just did above. You people live in such a delusional false reality propagated by your establishment that its worse than 2003. Ukraine is 'winning' despite losing, Russia is sinking despite becoming the 4th largest economy and having major increase in real wages, US economy is 'doing fine' ev…

Here's some independent data points.

1) Everyone I personally knew in Russia has left, and every international collaboration in science I have seen seems to have ended.

2) People I know who are full time online teachers report that Chinese have virtually overnight lost their spot as the most numerous students, replaced by hordes of Russians seeking to emigrate.

3) Indisputable military points of clarity from global news are that Russia failed to capture Ukraine's capital after planning and attempting to do so, lost much of its Black Sea fleet, and suffered from a brief internal military uprising.

4) Russia's petro-diplomacy clearly backfired: the entire world has pivoted away from fossil fuels and the IEA just announced peak oil will occur this decade.

I think any summary version of reality that includes Russia 'winning' at this stage is probably more stage-managed than the alternatives. Yes, they can grind people to death more than the Ukraine because of their larger population. No, that doesn't mean they 'win'. Both Russia and Ukraine will suffer long term macro-demographic structural issues from this war, however it ends. The people of Ukraine have greatly suffered. The Chinese will suffer too, because this aids Xi Jinping's narrative of resisting the west during a period in which he is asserting authoritarian nationalism and increasing financial, economic and cultural controls.

Few people are making money. Certainly not Russia.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#62

Post by SXX »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #57
SXX wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. But nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions and unlikely to happen anytime soon. At current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely just by pumping money into economy and making society pay for it. Old soviet joke: Dad: Looks like vodka will become more expensive. Son: Dad, are you going to drink less now? Dad: No, son, now you are going to eat less.

> nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions The semiconductor shortage is militarily relevant, as are the increasing delays in repairing damaged refineries and power plants [1]. > current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely Setting aside demographics, his war engine relies on oil, an increasingly-stranded asset [2]. (Over geopolitical time scales.) Putin is blowing grandma’s inheritance on fast cars. [1] ht…

> The semiconductor shortage is pretty big

What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries. US and EU exports to ex-USSR countries are booming.

Of course Russia can't just sneak up some giant oil refinery or LPG equipment, but semiconductors are super easy to smuggle. Even more so since they have unlimited budget.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#63

Post by endofreach »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #32
SXX wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately nothing really happened in Russia because the only meaningful exchange rate of RUB / USD pair is not set by some central bank or exchange, but crypto market: https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html There was drop of like 5-10%, but that's nothing special. You can still go and buy as much USDT as you want for reasonable price. And this is what majority of normal people use to move money…

> sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth. Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to…

the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives.

"Weapons will stop this war"? How? What's the end game? When it started the people believed it would be over in 3 days. Now all of a sudden people believe ukraine can destroy russia? How many more ukranian and russian soldiers must die?

This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. But if it was, i can't see a defeated russia, but a destroyed world.

Or what is the end-game here with the weapons? What do you think is a feasible outcome here?

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#64

Post by JumpCrisscross »

endofreach wrote: post #63
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia Correct. Long term, the effects of a materially-high real interest rate, capital controls and the demographic and technological degradation of sanctions and the war directly are starting to show their teeth. Sanctions won’t stop this war. But they’ll facilitate degrading Russia so it is in no position to…

the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives. "Weapons will stop this war"? How? What's the end game? When it started the people believed it would be over in 3 days. Now all of a sudden people believe ukraine can destroy russia? How many more ukranian and russian soldiers must die? This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other. But if it was, i can't see a defeated…

> How? What's the end game?

Plenty of options. From complete Russian withdrawal (unlikely absent a Russian civil war) to a return to 2015 borders with neutral zones manned with international peacekeepers.

Worst case: keeping the fronts where they are while Putin burns war materiel.

> This war will not be stopped by weapons. Just like any other.

You’re claiming wars have never been stopped by weapons?

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#65

Post by mark_l_watson »

throwadobe wrote: post #43
mark_l_watson wrote: post #2

As a US taxpayer I don’t particularly like this. We rely on being the world’s reserve currency, and many things get more expensive, e.g., serving government debt. In 2000-2001 we were able to effectively bully three countries that were talking about moving away from the US dollar, but I am not sure if that works now. I have a lot of personal theories how my country can best cope with future geopolitical adjustments.…

this has very little impact on the strength of the dollar. if anything, it's a better signal of Russia's economic weakness (in the face of sanctions) than a power shift in favor of the Yuan. forgoing foreign bases and limiting the US military presence to domestic only is such a ludicrous take that I'm willing to bet would have you laughed out of any room discussing defense.

Well, organizations making large profits would like to laugh me out of the room. Next to tech stocks, ‘defense’ stocks are my second largest basket of stocks. I don’t expect that these companies will stop making large profits for the near future, but I keep an eye on my investments.

I find it interesting, in general, in this thread, that so many people dismiss what on the surface is a contrarian view (i.e., drastically reduce our overseas military presence), without more open debate.

Maybe my idea is wrong, but I feel it is worth a conversation.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#66

Post by pmontra »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #15
lolinder wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I were in charge, the first thing I would do would be to close most foreign military bases. We can have the strongest military in the world and have them largely based in the US. The strategy behind the foreign military bases isn't just about having the strongest military in the world. They serve two purposes: First, we want to preserve the credible threat of boots on the ground anywhere in the world within just…

I don’t argue with your main points except to question if it is worth the money now. I was in the defense industry for 25 years, and my comments above are just my opinions on what is in the best interests of the US taxpayer today in 2024. I am questioning the value of having 800 military bases in foreign countries in 2024. What was once a good idea may not be worth the money and resources now. What does the US give u…

What would happen is that some of those countries will switch to a different geopolitical block. It's difficult to make a proposition to a country with a foreign army stationed in their territory, maybe because they lost a war 80 years ago or needed help not to lose it. It's easier if that army goes back home. If the USA want to give up their empire to China or Russia, they start with closing the bases. The fallout is economical as well, because American culture and products are going to have more competition and less reach.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#67

Post by mrtksn »

airstrike wrote: post #49
mrtksn wrote: post #8

How isn't "the West" shooting themselves in the feet with these sanctions when Russia is able to get the war stuff through Turkey/Kyrgyzstan etc when not able to buy and sell civilians stuff? Also, the Dollar and Euro can have effect on the Russian economy and tracked for intelligence only if they are used. I wonder if this will be considered a great blunder, looking back in few years. Forcing worlds most energy and…

> How isn't "the West" shooting themselves in the feet with these sanctions when Russia is able to get the war stuff through Turkey/Kyrgyzstan etc when not able to buy and sell civilians stuff? what damage do you really think this does to "the West"? the lack of access to cheap Russian energy is the only thing I can think of, and that's a dependency better resolved now than punted to the future. had Europe never grow…

Lack of access to cheap energy is a big one, its shaping the politics and the economy.

Also, western brands are losing markets and brand recognition.

IMHO the sanctions should have been for military equipment/weapons and precision tooling only and enforced religiously.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#68

Post by exceptione »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20
mark_l_watson wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t argue with your main points except to question if it is worth the money now. I was in the defense industry for 25 years, and my comments above are just my opinions on what is in the best interests of the US taxpayer today in 2024. I am questioning the value of having 800 military bases in foreign countries in 2024. What was once a good idea may not be worth the money and resources now. What does the US give u…

> What does the US give up not protecting the rest of the world? The number of lives we’d lose in the next world war. The end of Pax Americana won’t be sweet. That said, I agree there should be more thought as to the marginal benefit of the 800th base.

> The end of Pax Americana won’t be sweet.

This.

Plus:

  - America gets soft power in return, countries keep American interests in eye too. This requires understanding the concept of win-win versus the you lose-I win mentality. 


  - Economic contraction. There is not much growth and prosperity in a world of feuding dictatorships. Incentives in those systems are opposite to global well fare.
For American oligarchs, like for their Russian counter parts, there might be some insane short-term opportunities. Chances for the sharks, not for you though. You are fish.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#69

Post by JumpCrisscross »

SXX wrote: post #62
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> nothing critical has happened yet due to sanctions The semiconductor shortage is militarily relevant, as are the increasing delays in repairing damaged refineries and power plants [1]. > current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely Setting aside demographics, his war engine relies on oil, an increasingly-stranded asset [2]. (Over geopolitical time scales.) Putin is blowing grandma’s inheritance on fast cars. [1] ht…

> The semiconductor shortage is pretty big What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries. US and EU exports to ex-USSR countries are booming. Of course Russia can't just sneak up some giant oil refinery or LPG equipment, but semiconductors are super easy to smuggle. Even more so since they have unlimited budget.

> What semiconductor shortage? Who is affected by them? Russia is buying literally everything through Turkey, Kazakhstan and other ex-USSR countries

Which increases cost and lag time. It also means they’re restricted to commodity components; it’s even harder for them to have custom components fabricated.

Blockade runners have always been a thing. The point of the blockade is to increase cost, lag and uncertainty. That’s the difference between blockade/sanctions and siege.

Re: Chinese yuan becomes Russia's main foreign currency, replacing dollar and euro

#70

Post by orwin »

mrtksn wrote: post #21
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russians simply get their stuff from others With less variety, slower and at higher cost [1]. And they’re not getting much of the high-tech kit [2]. (The Germans also had blockade runners. Everyone does. That doesn’t make a blockade less onerous.) Russian natural gas sales have also cratered; Beijing is leveraging its position as a monopsony to demand price concessions [3]. [1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-sto…

Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. They still get their precision machinery and simply eat M instead of McDonalds. Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west really. Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership.

I really, really dislike the "extremist" politics discourse, especially when it's from a position created by a mix of Atlas network [1] talking points and original radical centrism, al merging together a position historically French know pretty well, the extreme center [1].

As long as the executive power do not try to subvert the legislative, judicial or, in a more limited way, informative power, we can't call "extremist politics". Which is why i reject the idea that reactionnaries like the RN in France are still fascists as their rethoric against judges and informative power is really tame (they could be lying, making them cryptofascists, but this is subject to personal beliefs and not facts).

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Network

[1]"L'Extrême Centre ou le poison français : 1789-2019", Pierre Senna

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