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The fastest path to African prosperity

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Re: The fastest path to African prosperity

#21

Post by robertlagrant »

washedup wrote: post #14
ThrowawayTestr wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do.

1. Financial Inclusion: Many Africans lack access to traditional banking services. Bitcoin provides an alternative financial system that is accessible to anyone with a smartphone, enabling people to participate in the global economy without needing a bank account. 2. Remittances: Bitcoin facilitates cheaper and faster international remittances. Traditional remittance services often charge high fees and take several d…

Just some thoughts on this:

1. Africans already use mobile banking services that don't even need a smartphone, via USSD[0]. This started almost 20 years ago[1]. Once you have a smartphone you can use loads of different banks, so you don't need Bitcoin for that.

2. This is probably true, yes.

3 and 4 - they seem to be the same point. Other currencies such as USD or GBP might be better value stores, given their relative security. But people in poverty aren't going to be buying Bitcoin or pounds, and if they are it's a gamble. Maybe middle classes, or people with mid-level government jobs who already have their Audi Q7, might a bit, it's true. But that's not a pro-poverty scenario.

Some off the cuff counterpoints are:

1. Getting your money out may be a problem. Banks are insured up to a value.

2. Where's my wallet? Just on my smartphone? In that case, if it breaks or I lose it, or it's stolen, I lose my money? Or in an exchange? In that case, it's not my coins, and any of numerous well-known failures[2] might mean I lose them forever.

3. And a meta point: people who like Bitcoin own Bitcoin. It's like talking to someone in a pyramid scheme. Of course Herbalife is the best way to lose weight. Of course Amway make the best cleaning products, Jeremy.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unstructured_Supplementary_Ser...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa

[2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63704034

Re: The fastest path to African prosperity

#22

Post by zie »

washedup wrote: post #14
ThrowawayTestr wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do.

1. Financial Inclusion: Many Africans lack access to traditional banking services. Bitcoin provides an alternative financial system that is accessible to anyone with a smartphone, enabling people to participate in the global economy without needing a bank account. 2. Remittances: Bitcoin facilitates cheaper and faster international remittances. Traditional remittance services often charge high fees and take several d…

As I understand it: 1 and 2 are already done with phone minutes in many, many parts of the African continent. Should phone minutes be currency? probably not, but arguably it's better than Bitcoin, at least the value is easy to understand.

With bitcoin's volatility I'm not sure how you can believe #3 is even remotely true.

Bitcoin is a hard asset? What exactly is your definition of "Hard Asset"? As I think we are talking about very, very different things. Here is my definition for comparison: A hard asset refers to a tangible asset or resource with fundamental value. Think productive farm animals, vehicles, things of that nature.

Re: The fastest path to African prosperity

#23

Post by bilbo0s »

metalliqaz wrote: post #13
wood_spirit wrote: post #12

Rory Stewart, a well known British politician turned pundit, often talks compellingly about how giving money directly to women is the way to lift countries out of poverty. The charity he is involved in: https://www.givedirectly.org/team/rory-stewart/

Doesn't that only work if you first ensure that they will be able to use it before it is stolen from them?

Actually, it doesn't work at all. It just allows Westerners with a new "development program" to conduct yet another experiment likely to end in failure.

Your comment on theft is spot on. The entire system starts and ends at strong rule of law coupled with a strong societal contract with private property. You don't have that in most of Africa. Even in the places the article mentions, it's hit or miss in practice. Giving money to women, or men, or children, or 3 legged camels with purple polka dots won't amount to a hill of beans without at least those two pillars in place.

And if those pillars are in place, and truly functional, giving away money won't work in any case. As doing so would make that nation dependent on your currency. Chinese, American or European. It's no coincidence that none of the ideas presented by "development experts" ever involve ideas that would make a sub-saharan African nation dependent only on itself, or other sub-saharan African nations. Where costs of trading have a chance in Hades of going down.

The cost of delivering a truck from the US or China is enormous. The only real way to bring that down is to manufacture it in sub-saharan Africa, and then drive it where it is needed. Anything less is just maintaining a steady flow of money and resources out of these nations.

Re: The fastest path to African prosperity

#24

Post by TMWNN »

TheLoafOfBread wrote: post #20
metalliqaz wrote: post #8

According to C. J. Cregg, the answer is roads.

In many African countries there were trains and railways. After colonizers left, railway gradually fell into disrepair and cease to be used. So I don't think that roads are the answer.

>After colonizers left, railway gradually fell into disrepair and cease to be used.

Infrastructure in general.

Recent history of Zimbabwe http://imgur.com/a/VdQdD>

Re: The fastest path to African prosperity

#25

Post by TMWNN »

bilbo0s wrote: post #23
metalliqaz wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't that only work if you first ensure that they will be able to use it before it is stolen from them?

Actually, it doesn't work at all. It just allows Westerners with a new "development program" to conduct yet another experiment likely to end in failure. Your comment on theft is spot on. The entire system starts and ends at strong rule of law coupled with a strong societal contract with private property. You don't have that in most of Africa. Even in the places the article mentions, it's hit or miss in practice. Givi…

>Your comment on theft is spot on. The entire system starts and ends at strong rule of law coupled with a strong societal contract with private property.

Agreed. Yesterday I saw the question posed: "What is more important, property rights or human rights?" I decided that property rights is more important because, as you said, strong rule of law gives people confidence in building a societal contract with others that includes things like freedom of speech. That's what happened in Western civilization.

Re: The fastest path to African prosperity

#27

Post by deciplex »

TMWNN wrote: post #25
bilbo0s wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, it doesn't work at all. It just allows Westerners with a new "development program" to conduct yet another experiment likely to end in failure. Your comment on theft is spot on. The entire system starts and ends at strong rule of law coupled with a strong societal contract with private property. You don't have that in most of Africa. Even in the places the article mentions, it's hit or miss in practice. Givi…

>Your comment on theft is spot on. The entire system starts and ends at strong rule of law coupled with a strong societal contract with private property. Agreed. Yesterday I saw the question posed: "What is more important, property rights or human rights?" I decided that property rights is more important because, as you said, strong rule of law gives people confidence in building a societal contract with others that…

I mean I suppose you could have said something like "property rights are human rights" but then you'll just get the follow-up question "what is more important, the human rights that are property rights, or all other human rights?"

That said, even if you take as a given that property rights enable those other rights (certainly a contentious claim), it still seems like you're missing the point of the question. If you value the right of a person not to be murdered, more than you value the right of a person to own a factory and to pay people to work in it, you should just say so.

Re: The fastest path to African prosperity

#28

Post by canuckthrow »

wood_spirit wrote: post #12

Rory Stewart, a well known British politician turned pundit, often talks compellingly about how giving money directly to women is the way to lift countries out of poverty. The charity he is involved in: https://www.givedirectly.org/team/rory-stewart/

See example charity: OnlyFans.com

Re: The fastest path to African prosperity

#29

Post by photochemsyn »

markatkinson wrote: post #17
photochemsyn wrote: post #11

If you don't put energy and infrastructure first, nothing else will follow. This raises an immediate issue: Western economies are still largely fossil-fuel-reliant and there is no way Africa can start burning fossil fuels at the rate the USA does. Ignoring the pollution and climate aspects, there simply isn't enough fossil fuel production for that scenario. This means step one - securing the energy needed to support…

Zambia has had almost 100% renewable energy for a very long time. It's only recently with more extreme weather patterns that energy consistency is becoming an issue. We've been exporting electricity for decades. Despite that the country has remained incredibly poor and continues to circle the drain. So I'd suggest, "they don't need X they need Y", is always going to be wrong because what is really needed is a blend o…

If you want to have an industrial-scale civilization, well, 100% renewable might sound good but the scale is not enough for factories and modern infrastructure needs. Compare and contrast the average usage in Zambia vs. the USA, per person:

per capita Zambia = 669.89 kWh

per capita USA = 11,695.27 kWh

Now the USA isn't the most efficient user of electricity (probably the least), but still, asking the US economy to function with only 1/20th the normal energy use? Implausible at best.

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