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OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

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Re: OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

#311

Post by hnaccount_rng »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #169
noahtallen wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The parent is partially right, the keynote mentioned that OpenAI agreed to not track Apple user requests.

I would like to see that codified in a binding agreement regulators can surface in discovery if needed. Trust but verify.

I'm reasonably sure you just described the SEC and the (paraphrasing Matt Levine) "everything is securities fraud"-doctrine. Yes Apple has some wiggle room if they rely on rule-lawyering, but.. I really don't think they can wide-spread ignore the intention of the statements made today.

Re: OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

#312

Post by hnaccount_rng »

talldayo wrote: post #112
Workaccount2 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can only imagine Apple has some kind of siloing agreement with OpenAI, Apple can easily afford whatever price to do so.

Surely Apple wouldn't simply market privacy while lying to their users about who can access their data: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/12/apple-admits-to-...

There is a wide gap between complying with law enforcement requests and judicial orders and intentionally lying. Yes, if Apple can (trivially) read your data, then one must assume that at least the US government can access your data! Though if that's in your threat model I have a couple of other bad news items for you. Apple actively reduces that surface by moving ~everything to ee2e storage with keys held on customer devices. This is pretty transparently the attempt to be able to say "sorry can't do that without changing OS code and for _that_ discussion we have won in court. Really sorry that we can't help you". And yes, that's probably just to decrease the compliance costs. Still same result

Re: OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

#313

Post by thesz »

ben_w wrote: post #230
wg0 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, just in three to five years, lots of "AI boxes" and those magical sparkling icons next to input fields summoning AI would be silently removed. LLMs are not accurate, they aren't subject matter experts that'll be maybe within 5% error margin. People will gradually learn and discover anf the cost of keeping a model updated and running won't drastically reduce so we'll most likely see dust settling down.

> LLMs are not accurate, they aren't subject matter experts that'll be maybe within 5% error margin. The Gell Mann amnesia effect suggests people will have a very hard time noticing the difference. Even if the models never improve, they're more accurate than a lot of newspaper reporting. > People will gradually learn and discover anf the cost of keeping a model updated and running won't drastically reduce so we'll mo…

> So, you're betting on no significant cost reduction of compute hardware? Seems implausible to me.

This is not about compute, but about data.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.04125

"...our study reveals an exponential need for training data which implies that the key to "zero-shot" generalization capabilities under large-scale training paradigms remains to be found."

Re: OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

#314

Post by inferiorhuman »

whimsicalism wrote: post #30
mvdtnz wrote: post #26

I still don't know a single person who wants this crap. I don't want "AI" in my web browser, I don't want it in my email client, I don't want it on my phone, I just don't want it. And it feels like everyone I speak to agrees! So who is this all for?

maybe you come on too strong for people who disagree to voice it personally i like it and want it, except in places where it is shoehorned

Considering how AI folks tend to start foaming at the mouth like Elon stans anytime someone doesn't shower Altman or AI with praise, I doubt it.

Re: OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

#315

Post by thesz »

onion2k wrote: post #156
wg0 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, just in three to five years, lots of "AI boxes" and those magical sparkling icons next to input fields summoning AI would be silently removed. LLMs are not accurate, they aren't subject matter experts that'll be maybe within 5% error margin. People will gradually learn and discover anf the cost of keeping a model updated and running won't drastically reduce so we'll most likely see dust settling down.

LLMs are not accurate, they aren't subject matter experts that'll be maybe within 5% error margin. You're asserting that the AI features will be removed in 3 to 5 years because they're not accurate enough today , but you actually need them to remain inaccurate in 3 years time for your prediction to be correct. That seems unlikely. I agree that people will start to realize the cost, but the accuracy will improve, so p…

My experience suggests that LLMs become not less accurate, but less helpful.

Two years ago they output a solution for my query [1] right away, now they try to engage user to implement that thing. This is across the board, as far as I can see.

These LLMs are not about helping anyone, their goals are engagement and mining data for that engagement.

[1] The query is "implement blocked clause decomposition in haskell." There are papers (circa 2010-2012), there are implementations, but not in Haskell. BCD, itself, is easy, and can be expressed in a dozen-two lines of Haskell code.

Re: OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

#316

Post by nativeit »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #258
valine wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Llama 3 8B captures that 'magic' fairly well and runs on a modest gaming PC. You can even run it on an iPhone 15 if you're willing to sacrifice floating point precision. Three years from now I full expect GPT4 quality models running locally on an iPhone.

Three years is more than twice the time since GPT-4 was released to now. Almost twice the time ChatGPT existed. At this rate, even if we'll end up with GPT-4 equivalents runnable on consumer hardware, the top models made available by big players via API will make local LLMs feel useless. For the time being, the incentive to use a service will continue. It's like a graphics designer being limited to chose between loca…

I know this isn’t really the point, but Adobe CC hasn’t really improved all that much from Adobe CS, which was purely local and perfectly capable. A better analogy might be found in comparing Encyclopedia Brittanica to Wikipedia. The latter is far from perfect, but an astounding expansion of accessible human knowledge that represents a full, worldwide paradigm shift in how such information is maintained, distributed, and accessed.

On the same token, those of us who are sufficiently motivated can maintain and utilize a local copy of Wikipedia…frequently for training LLMs at this point, so I guess the snake has come around, and we’ve settled into a full-on ouroboros of digital media hype. ;-)

Re: OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

#317

Post by nativeit »

berniedurfee wrote: post #300
RodgerTheGreat wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I truly hope the reckless enthusiasm for LLMs will cool down, but it seems plausible that discretized, compressed versions of today's cutting-edge models will eventually be able to run entirely locally, even on mobile devices; there are no guarantees that they'll get better , but many promising opportunities to get the same unreliable results faster and with less power consumption. Once the models run on-device, ther…

I just want to sit down in front of my TV, put on my Bluetooth headphones and have the headphones and TV connect automatically. Then, when I’m downstairs in my office and want to listen to music on my iPhone. I want my headphones to connect to my iPhone and not my TV upstairs! I don’t need Skynet, I just need my devices to be a little less stupid. I would consider that akin to magic at this point. Let’s start there a…

The University of Washington is studying an AI application where a pair of headphones will isolate a single voice in a crowd when one simply looks at them. Amazing stuff…until you try it anywhere near your car, and then it starts playing the voice over your car stereo (presumably).

Re: OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

#318

Post by nativeit »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #262
wg0 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, just in three to five years, lots of "AI boxes" and those magical sparkling icons next to input fields summoning AI would be silently removed. LLMs are not accurate, they aren't subject matter experts that'll be maybe within 5% error margin. People will gradually learn and discover anf the cost of keeping a model updated and running won't drastically reduce so we'll most likely see dust settling down.

> People will gradually learn and discover anf the cost of keeping a model updated and running won't drastically reduce so we'll most likely see dust settling down. As mentioned elsewhere, 3 to 5 years is some 3x to 5x as long as GPT-4 exists; some 2-3x as long as ChatGPT exists and LLMs suddenly graduated from being obscure research projects to general-purpose tools. Do you really believe the capability limit has al…

Tool seems like a strong term for whatever ChatGPT is right now. Absurdly overhyped curiosity? Insanely overengineered autocorrect? Dystopian MadLibs? Wall Street Wank Sock?

I’m not trying to downplay its potential, but I don’t know of anyone who trusts it enough for what I’d consider “tooling”.

Re: OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

#319

Post by nativeit »

ben_w wrote: post #236
dpkirchner wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's hundreds+ of companies making LLMs we can choose from, and the switching cost is low. There's only one company that can make self-driving software for Tesla. Basically, competition should lead to improvements.

Tesla aren't the only people trying to make self-driving cars, famously Uber tried and Waymo looks like they're slowly succeeding. Competition can be useful, but it's not a panacea.

Mercedes seems to be eating Tesla’s breakfast on FSD, in particular where safety and real-world implementation is concerned. Their self-driving vehicles are equipped with aqua-colored lights to alert other drivers that it is being controlled via computer, and Mercedes has chosen to honor its liability for incidents/accidents.

Re: OpenAI and Apple Announce Partnership

#320

Post by nativeit »

ben_w wrote: post #230
wg0 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, just in three to five years, lots of "AI boxes" and those magical sparkling icons next to input fields summoning AI would be silently removed. LLMs are not accurate, they aren't subject matter experts that'll be maybe within 5% error margin. People will gradually learn and discover anf the cost of keeping a model updated and running won't drastically reduce so we'll most likely see dust settling down.

> LLMs are not accurate, they aren't subject matter experts that'll be maybe within 5% error margin. The Gell Mann amnesia effect suggests people will have a very hard time noticing the difference. Even if the models never improve, they're more accurate than a lot of newspaper reporting. > People will gradually learn and discover anf the cost of keeping a model updated and running won't drastically reduce so we'll mo…

> …they’re more accurate than a lot of newspaper reporting.

Is that when they’re cribbing straight out of the newspaper pages, or is this just a cynical snipe at the poor state of media that, not for nothing, tech companies have had a fair hand in kneecapping?

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