Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us • Hacker News Board

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#311

Post by johnnyanmac » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 9:29 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #131

nequo wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are two Americas, the one that HN folks inhabit and the underclass. > The former is doing great. This is at odds with what I've been hearing on HN and in adjacent places. For a year or two now, people have been saying that finding a job in tech has become much harder. Some say that it hasn't been this bad in a decade. Some say it hasn't been this bad since the dotcom bubble burst.

Generalizations are always only somewhat true. But what you're probably seeing is a reaction to the end of a period when, assuming at least a pulse and some vague familiarity with computers (and maybe some ability to navigate tech interviews), you could walk out of a job on Friday and have multiple offers within a week. This was basically never the norm with most professional jobs that could take months of job-huntin…

>This was basically never the norm with most professional jobs that could take months of job-hunting with no guarantee of a higher salary or not needing to move.

It's not the norm for most professional jobs to need to study content unrelated to the actual responsibilities for your role, and going through 3-5+ stages of interviews just to get a thumbs up. no other sector is studying interview questions on the side. they either have a standardized license exam to vet their technical expertise, can do a contract/trial period to show their chops ("contractors" in tech aren't really a "downgrade"/less compensated role like in other industries), or otherwise have testing that closely mirrors their day to day.

>I expect very few of them have taken fast food jobs which absolutely happened in 2001.

I was in elementary for 2001, so I can't comment much on 2001 or 2009. I have indeed heard some of those people consider 2023/4 to be even worse for the market, however. Just "being good at your job" isn't enough these days, where it sounds like that sufficed in 2001, and the study space for 2009 was at least manageable. But that's secondhand accounts.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#312

Post by johnnyanmac » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 9:30 PM UTC

api wrote: post #118

nequo wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are two Americas, the one that HN folks inhabit and the underclass. > The former is doing great. This is at odds with what I've been hearing on HN and in adjacent places. For a year or two now, people have been saying that finding a job in tech has become much harder. Some say that it hasn't been this bad in a decade. Some say it hasn't been this bad since the dotcom bubble burst.

It’s harder than it was a few years ago to find a six figure upwardly mobile job. This is a different world from the one where hundreds of thousands are committing suicide with fentanyl.

I'd take any job, but very few bites outside of tech. So chasing that tech job is literally my path of least resistance.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#313

Post by CPLX » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 9:36 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #298

gruez wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet as a whole, people estimate the nation's economy worse than their own. Clearly this can't be the case if everyone thinks their economic circumstances are the nation's economic circumstances, because if that were the case you'd expect them to align on a national basis. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/05/23/views-of-the...

I think you could (almost) build a consistent picture: Economic output is doing well, a lot of people are working, but the rich are taking all the gains and the workers are just barely surviving. The problem is, if that's the case, who's buying all the output? It's not just going into warehouses. So people must be able to buy all this stuff. An alternate view would be that people have been buying all this stuff, most…

> I think you could (almost) build a consistent picture: Economic output is doing well, a lot of people are working, but the rich are taking all the gains and the workers are just barely surviving.

You figured it out.

Maybe replace "the rich" with "those with capital and market power" but that's mostly a distinction without a difference.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#314

Post by CPLX » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 9:40 PM UTC

gruez wrote: post #218

Izkata wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's exactly the point - there's some sort of disconnect and people just want to say "they're wrong" instead of trying to figure out why people feel that way.

>people just want to say "they're wrong" instead of trying to figure out why people feel that way. Why are these two things positioned as opposing/contradictory? Why can't those people be wrong but we still try to figure out why they think that way?

Ask yourself the reverse question now.

Why can't it be true that the economics profession is wrong, or better yet "not even wrong" and not really even talking about anything that has real world applicability?

Given the last few decades that should probably be the starting premise of any analysis.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#315

Post by kjkjadksj » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 9:43 PM UTC

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #128

torpfactory wrote: post #53

I have a theory that one of the core problems is that American businesses just expect to make too much money. Everyone seems to be aiming for 30% gross margin or more, and then working to get monopoly power or regulatory capture in order to achieve that. When I work with businesses in China they sort of expect cutthroat competition and I'm sure they're not seeing 30% margins. Low a behold stuff is a lot cheaper there…

> I have a theory that one of the core problems is that American businesses just expect to make too much money. If you pay attention to certain board meetings, earnings calls, and so on, or if you had the opportunity to work for certain companies, you'll find people talking about the growth of growth, i.e. second order. It seems that the notion of sustainable growth is just gone. Corporations chasing lofty goals in a…

Its modern investing. People are selling options covered by their shares. Little movements from headlines can turn into big double digit percent gains on a position in a day due to the way options are priced.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#316

Post by marcosdumay » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 9:44 PM UTC

hobs wrote: post #39

DarkContinent wrote: post #28

Re LinkedIn as an example of an economic termite: It's certainly true that LinkedIn is the go to for white collar professionals seeking to make their resumes visible passively to recruiters. But isn't life still easier with LinkedIn than in the before times, when recruiters would dig deep to get folks' phone numbers and then have to call each of those people individually? (I think the modern equivalent would be email…

2022 Stack discontinued their job posting options as it was not viable.

I wouldn't use Stack Overflow as an example of the market not being viable. 2022 SO had a horrible reputation problem, and their main value proposition (that is, qualifying the candidates) used a metric that was completely broken and probably counterproductive in practice (but we can't know that one for sure).

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#317

Post by boringg » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 9:54 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #211

Four. That's the magic number. There have to be four competitors of significant size before prices go down. There are both EU and US studies substantiating this. It's been seen in cellular phone networks, ISPs, drugstores, and banks. Drop below the threshold of four, and the magic happens. Prices go up, margins go up, and consumers lose. Four should be the basis of antitrust policy. Less than four, and there are two…

Cant wait for somehow the government to require four companies in order to ensure good competition by some well intentioned poorly reasoned and executed policies.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#318

Post by gruez » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 9:59 PM UTC

CPLX wrote: post #314

gruez wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>people just want to say "they're wrong" instead of trying to figure out why people feel that way. Why are these two things positioned as opposing/contradictory? Why can't those people be wrong but we still try to figure out why they think that way?

Ask yourself the reverse question now. Why can't it be true that the economics profession is wrong, or better yet "not even wrong" and not really even talking about anything that has real world applicability? Given the last few decades that should probably be the starting premise of any analysis.

>Why can't it be true that the economics profession is wrong, or better yet "not even wrong" and not really even talking about anything that has real world applicability?

I'm not ruling it out, only pointing out that it's a lazy argument to handwave away the statistics while not providing evidence that's equal or better than the ones you're trying to refute. This is especially true when the discrepancy is from a group of people who can't get basic facts right. Maybe they're actually right but there's some contrived reason they're not answering straightforward factual questions correctly, or maybe they're just wrong.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#319

Post by Dalewyn » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 10:14 PM UTC

cjblomqvist wrote: post #300

saulpw wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None, if each of the companies were 1/4 of the size.

Not necessarily true. Economies of scale is a thing.

This. More, smaller companies mean more duplication and overhead which can manifest in higher prices. One of the biggest factors behind market consolidation and centralization is because it reduces duplication and overhead which can increase margins and might reduce prices.

Merely increasing competition doesn't necessarily drive prices down.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#320

Post by citizenpaul » Sun, Jun 09, 2024, 10:19 PM UTC

lupire wrote: post #122

citizenpaul wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is basically a variation on tragedy of the commons. The solution is right there in front of everyone and "simply" requires everyone to do it coordinately. I've told this solution to numerous people, just log onto your bank website and click "dispute" and thats it you are done. Nope, they either don't believe me or are afraid of doing it because "banks". They continue to just allow crappy businesses to effectivel…

Why do you believe that people who think Starbucks is bad are the people who love Starbucks? The vast majority of people aren't coffee snobs.

Oh man... it was just a random example of a business people regularly slam publicly for bad behavior with tons of alternatives. Feel free to fill in a bad company of your choice but often people simply keep going back to the company that ripped them off even when its trivial to change was my point.