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Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

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Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with much of this and I'll add one of my biggest stressors - opaque pricing. One of the biggest "innovations" in the US in the last decade or so seems to be to add as many hidden fees as possible to every service imaginable. Obviously it's hardly a new idea; I'm sure that human nature being what it is, they had to deal with it in Mesopotamia. But it makes budgeting very difficult; I suppose it's like living i…

>> I'll add one of my biggest stressors - opaque pricing. Economic "models" make assumptions like markets being efficient. Meanwhile in the business classes next door they teach how to avoid competition because it's a race to the bottom. They all learn the prisoners dilemma as an example because it's how you need to think to avoid overt collusion. I'd like an economic model as powerful as the laws of thermodynamics,…

> Economic "models" make assumptions like markets being efficient

No? You’re thinking of a specific class of models. Generally speaking, prescriptive economics is about characterising what an efficient market would look like and then identifying why reality is not that. (And whether that deviance is good or bad.)

This article could be seen doing that. It seems like domains should be closed to $2, given an efficient market. But they’re nine going on twelve.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#42
post #32
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about the wars the US is fighting directly in 13 different sovereign countries presently? That’s gotta be slightly costly.

Damn I must have missed this news. What countries is the US at war with?

None of it is declared war; it’s all just “special military operation” kinda stuff. It’s actually crazy how many different places the US has boots on the ground.

More details in the ET podcast episode, in public rn and can’t find/transcribe. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2Fcid5hjKbdgLWmvHreOpV

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#43

I very much agree with the premise that economists unduly focus on a few metrics of dubious quality - labor force participation, personal consumption expenditures, market capitalization, wage growth, etc - and overfit them to construct a coherent narrative about the "strength" of the economy and what the experience of living in that economy must be like. There's a story right now being peddled by all the talking head…

Some factors on my list of sentiment drags:

* Manufacturers reducing product quality without buyers' knowledge. E.g., Pyrex or some SSD makers.

* Shrinkflation: grocery stores selling slightly smaller-sized packages without buyers' knowledge. E.g., containers that used to be square, staying equally wide (for shelf space facing) but less deep.

* Widespread Terms and Conditions / EULAs that undermine previously reliable consumer protections.

* The sense that privacy-preserving products are now out of my financial reach, due to surveillance capitalism.

I guess the main pattern in these things is a sense of failed consumer protections.

EDIT: I'm ranting about consumer sentiment, which is probably different from economic sentiment. Apologies for going off topic.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#44

I think in many areas the name of the game is to move the entire market to a place where no real competition is possible. Housing in most parts of the world is a good example, there’s no reason prices for housing should’ve gone up 300-400 % above inflation as we really haven’t run out of space in most places, yet here we are. I have a hard time believing this is just the outcome of unfortunate market conditions, it s…

Housing costs are primarily due to zoning and other local and state government policies that limit or prohibit construction.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#45

I very much agree with the premise that economists unduly focus on a few metrics of dubious quality - labor force participation, personal consumption expenditures, market capitalization, wage growth, etc - and overfit them to construct a coherent narrative about the "strength" of the economy and what the experience of living in that economy must be like. There's a story right now being peddled by all the talking head…

The issues have been well understood for decades but the fixes involves dismantling existing power structures so nothing simple about it. Short summary of the issues - https://michael-hudson.com/2023/07/global-economic-history-i...

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#46

I very much agree with the premise that economists unduly focus on a few metrics of dubious quality - labor force participation, personal consumption expenditures, market capitalization, wage growth, etc - and overfit them to construct a coherent narrative about the "strength" of the economy and what the experience of living in that economy must be like. There's a story right now being peddled by all the talking head…

> method for understanding the economy is flawed and is not properly capturing what all consumers know intuitively

It’s not flawed, economic literacy in the general population just sucks and thus so does the popular discourse. The closer you are to the minimum wage or tech sector, the worse you’re doing; the more you make and more assets you have the better you’re doing [1].

The measures are there. They show a bifurcating economy, and in particular, one fracturing along social lines, thereby inhibiting information permeation. They’re just buried in e.g. the Fed’s Beige Books, which aren’t consumed as vociferously as TV news.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/economic-data-paint-a-...

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#47
The fundamental problem all these examples are linked to is the rise of centralized power in the economy, and the antidote has been known for a long time, see this 1952 book by John Galbraith:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Capitalism

> "...private decisions could and presumably would lead to the unhampered exploitation of the public, or of workers, farmers and others who are intrinsically weak as individuals. Such decisions would be a proper object of state interference or would soon so become."

Economists like Michael Hudson (I'm a fan) repeatedly refer to the rentier class in this context, and a rentier system (wiki) can be described as one in which

> "productive investments are largely lacking, the highest possible share of income is skimmed off from ground-rents, leases and rents and thus in many developing countries, rentier capitalism is an obstacle to economic development. A rentier is someone who earns income from capital without working. (wiki)"

Note that if you take capital and use it in a different way, e.g. to build a factory in which you are actively involved in design and production, you are not a rentier, but rather an industrial capitalist (I think we can safely put Elon Musk in this category, and Warren Buffett in the rentier group, for example). For more on this notion:

https://thebaffler.com/salvos/dilemmas-of-the-rentier-class

There are several policies which undermine the power of the rentier class - antitrust in competetive industries is one, but equally important is the nationalization and state control of fundamental sectors that are non-competitive and thus fall under the natural monopoly heading - water, roads, ports, electrical grids, fiber optic networks, basic public health care and education, emergency services, etc. - basically the infrastructure that makes all other economic activity possible, and which the likes of Buffett - a noted utility investor - have had their fat fingers in for many decades.

China has incorporated these concepts into its state capitalism model and that's why it is outperforming the USA and Europe when it comes to technological and economic development in almost all sectors, from solar panels to high speed rail to water projects, and now, chips. They're still behind in space tech, but that's really only due to the phenomenon of SpaceX.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#48
My most recent instance of this is online ordering with Dunkin’ Donuts. The app has no feedback to indicate what items are in stock, so it’s possible to order things that can’t be fulfilled. If you don’t want their substitute, the store cannot cancel the order. You have to call an 800 number and plead your case. Sure, it’s not a huge hardship, but it’s another instance of making the cancellation path more difficult to frustrate people into writing off the order.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#49
Economic Termite is a useful new term and I do hope it becomes more popular.

Some other examples that the author didn't cover:

Payment processors: VISA/ Mastercard have near monopoly over transaction fees

Digital Ads: Google & Facebook are the Economic Termites in that space.

Cloud Service Providers: The ET's here are AWS and Azure!

Text book publishers: Prices always ever go up as the publishers control the market tightly.

Re: Economic Termites: Monopolies not noticeable enough for most of us

#50

What I find odd about the article is that it does very little to substantiate its core claim - that the reason the economy is broken are small monopolists-but-not-really-monopolists who are trying to fleece you. It opens with the example of rising construction costs. The only remotely relevant example here is Autodesk, but by the article's own admission, "the cost of these products remains relatively minor". And that…

The areas I might agree with this for construction would be something like lumbermills - where we have plenty of timber available but there’s a bottleneck of capital for mill capacity and they’ve been able to raise prices sharply in the past few years. Investors don’t want to pay to build enough capacity to bring prices down because then only older paid-off mills would win a pricing war if there were any excess capacity.
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