As noted by chat in EDA stream, Max Q is projected to be 10s later than previous tests: grep -i 'max q' ift* | sed -e 's;^; ;' ift2-timeline.csv:00:00:52 Max Q (moment of peak mechanical stress on the rocket) ift3-timeline.csv:00:00:52 Max Q (moment of peak mechanical stress on the rocket) ift4-timeline.csv:00:01:02 Max Q (moment of peak mechanical stress on the rocket)
None of the past tests has reached orbit (IFT3 got to orbital altitude, but not orbital velocity), so I believe SpaceX is essentially a projection that they will reach orbit this time.