Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

bmjpublichealth.bmj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 77 posts

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#51

Post by deng »

auggierose wrote: post #38
DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

thanks for sharing this. I initially wrote your comment off as an anti-vaxx lunatic but after reading the actual paper I decided to vouch for this comment instead after it's been dead.

Oh, I am vaccinated (non-MRNA though). I am just running a social experiment. I am interested in what people think about the document.

> I am just running a social experiment.

So you're just a troll.

> I am interested in what people think about the document.

The "document" is a 300-page book of medical studies. How about you read it and give us a summary?

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#53

Post by The_Colonel »

brabel wrote: post #21

"In 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic onset and implementation of containment measures, records present 1 033 122 excess deaths (P-score 11.4%). In 2021, the year in which both containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines were used to address virus spread and infection, the highest number of excess deaths was reported: 1 256 942 excess deaths (P-score 13.8%). In 2022, when most containment measures were lifted an…

> but wouldn't the number of excess deaths in a hypothetical world where no measures had been taken at all

To me, a more likely scenario is that the virus would basically run through the world's population during the first year, killing most susceptible quickly. The fact the original was a more deadly strain and the complete overloading of medical care would not help either.

> ignoring the fact that viruses naturally become less lethal over time, as killing too many hosts is bad for spreading further

This is likely not a strong factor in Covid since it's not enough deadly and there's enough time to spread the virus before dying.

A more fitting explanation is the reversion to the mean. Covid-19 was/is an exceptionally deadly strain of coronavirus, it's more likely that its mutations will trend in the direction of mean coronavirus lethality.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#54

Post by admissionsguy »

myrmidon wrote: post #47
admissionsguy wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is incredibly important to make the life of decision makers from the covid times as unpleasant as possible in order to reduce the chance of a repeat when the next pandemic comes.

Which decisions were made during Covid that went so strongly against facts known at the time that people should be imprisoned for making them?

The most clear cut case is 1st amendment violation / censorship (e.g. Berenson v. Biden - civil case, but it should just be the beginning). There is possible fraud in Fauci's case regarding covid origins, which would also imply perjury charges. But ultimately I and many others want to see people held responsible for the arbitrary, oppressive and selective exercise of power during covid (e.g. lockdowns for some but not for BLM, firing people for not injecting the vaccine, and so on).

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#55

Post by weberer »

unsupp0rted wrote: post #45
rrr_oh_man wrote: post #6

I've been watching EuroMoMo¹ since early 2020² and it's done a great job visualizing the stats. Especially if you break it down by countries and age groups. ¹ European Mortality Monitor: https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps ² Blog post from Jan 29 2020: https://romanabashin.com/coronavirus-2020-outbreak/

What happened here? https://imgur.com/8cq4ak3

That spike is on week 40. Scroll down to the results by country and see that the spike was just in Israel. Week 40 2023 includes October 7th, so it was due to those attacks.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#56

Post by myrmidon »

admissionsguy wrote: post #18
ellrob88 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that based on your personal interpretation of the facts, or do you think there is part of this study that proves that?

The part re excess mortality due to non-covid causes means Fauci killed lots of people. Even if he had saved more from covid (he had not), it would not change the fact that his policies killed many who would not have died otherwise.

> The part re excess mortality due to non-covid causes means Fauci killed lots of people.

No. To establish that "Fauci killed lots of people" you would have to show that cumulative deaths would have been lower without actions that Fauci was responsible for (=> difficult because you lack a good baseline). This report most definitely does NOT show that.

Then, to have an actual case, you would also have to show that those decisions were made in a manner criminally neglecting facts known at the time (=> not 4 years later!).

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#57

Post by PaulKeeble »

Bellamy wrote: post #39

Received: 9 June 2023 Accepted: 20 March 2024 First Published: 3 June 2024 Is it normal that it takes so long to go from Received to Accepted?

Yes. The NIH intermural study on ME/CFS took well over a year to get published.

The sheer volume of papers on Covid/Long Covid et el is staggering too something like 3/4s of a million individual bits of research have been published (all showing its bad news for humans!) and that combined with the doubling of days out sick everyone is enduring due to multiple Covid infections and the brain fog from Long Covid is likely not helping to get things handled quickly.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#58

Post by admissionsguy »

myrmidon wrote: post #56
admissionsguy wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The part re excess mortality due to non-covid causes means Fauci killed lots of people. Even if he had saved more from covid (he had not), it would not change the fact that his policies killed many who would not have died otherwise.

> The part re excess mortality due to non-covid causes means Fauci killed lots of people. No. To establish that "Fauci killed lots of people" you would have to show that cumulative deaths would have been lower without actions that Fauci was responsible for (=> difficult because you lack a good baseline). This report most definitely does NOT show that. Then, to have an actual case, you would also have to show that tho…

> cumulative deaths would have been lower without actions that Fauci was responsible for

Ethically, it is enough to show that his policies killed people. I cannot go into a tobacco factory, kill the night guard, burn the factory to the ground and expect recognition for saving lives. So starting from the position that unjust things were done during COVID, it is now the time to investigate what specific laws were breached, so that justice can be sought. Hence the slogan 'arrest Fauci'.

The report mentions excess death from non-COVID causes. Is it disputable that these were due to non-pharmaceutical interventions? There is also a large number of contemporary warnings regarding the effect of lockdowns on diagnosis and treatment of other diseases.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#59

Post by elzbardico »

yyggvbb wrote: post #43
elzbardico wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

My mom died of COVID.

Well man, mine too. My mother already had a poor health and even before covid I was aware that any respiratory infection like the one she had two years before covid could be fatal. But at least in 2018 she was promptly treated, with medicines to avoid the progression of secondary infection and fluid accumulation and despite the scare, was given oxygen, and she was saved. In 2021, despite her old age, doctors were prohibited in her city to pro-actively avoid secondary infection and in the end when they finally decided to treat her, she was put in a ventilator and had complications commonly associated with the use of ventilators. You can call me anything you want, but I will never stop believing that despite her death certificate says she died of Covid, she was an iatrogenic death.

Re: Excess mortality across the Western World since the Covid pandemic

#60

Post by eru »

myrmidon wrote: post #40
eru wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That in itself is strongly anti-democratic behavior [...] Not sure what this has to do with democracy? Seems more like a rule of law issue?

I don't think it should be punishable to call for political opponents to be imprisoned. But derailing a discussion from factual criticism into emotional populism appears extremely harmful to the concept of democracy itself to me: In an ideal democracy, candidates would be elected based on how their political alignment and intended actions match up with voters. But if politicians denigrate their competition instead, a…

Well, blame the voters who reward the politicians who use these tactics with their vote?
Post reply on HN