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The rise of the disposable car

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Re: The rise of the disposable car

#231

Post by xnx »

bityard wrote: post #196
nimbius wrote: post #75

The rich have been flogging this idea since cash for clunkers. That, because they run through cars like shit through a goose, you will too. Speaking as a master diesel mechanic, this is a deleterious line of thinking for anyone with less than a few million dollars. Every car has 20 years of parts, and most Japanese cars have closer into 50 years of parts. Any engine built after 2010 will likely last half a million mi…

I live in the rust belt, where the average life expectancy of a car is about 10 years. 12-15 if you _really_ baby it. Except for one car that was totaled (got rear-ended by a texter), all of the cars I no longer own succumbed to a rotted out frame. Engines were fine, bodies were fine, interiors were fine. But a frame. Can't really replace a frame. You can _sometimes_ repair it. You can buy some time by paying for an…

> I live in the rust belt, where the average life expectancy of a car is about 10 years.

Are you saying the "rust belt" region of the US, named for its history of steel manufacturing, is an area where cars rust more? Cars rust more where salt is used to deice roads. Salted roads overlap with the rust belt, but they are not related.

Re: The rise of the disposable car

#232

Post by leoh »

jseliger wrote: post #9

I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time, crash rates plummet, and these kinds of articles come to resemble articles from 1910 about horse-related problems. Humans suck at driving: https://jakeseliger.com/2019/12/16/maybe-cars-are-just-reall...

Waymo in SF is super expensive. Like, $1/min+. Is Phoenix more financially accessible? I’d love to ditch my car for Waymo but I’d easily drop $40+/day which is a lot more than, say, a $300/month lease.

Re: The rise of the disposable car

#233

Post by NullPrefix »

bityard wrote: post #196
nimbius wrote: post #75

The rich have been flogging this idea since cash for clunkers. That, because they run through cars like shit through a goose, you will too. Speaking as a master diesel mechanic, this is a deleterious line of thinking for anyone with less than a few million dollars. Every car has 20 years of parts, and most Japanese cars have closer into 50 years of parts. Any engine built after 2010 will likely last half a million mi…

I live in the rust belt, where the average life expectancy of a car is about 10 years. 12-15 if you _really_ baby it. Except for one car that was totaled (got rear-ended by a texter), all of the cars I no longer own succumbed to a rotted out frame. Engines were fine, bodies were fine, interiors were fine. But a frame. Can't really replace a frame. You can _sometimes_ repair it. You can buy some time by paying for an…

IIRC some Audis have aluminum frames

Re: The rise of the disposable car

#234

Post by aitchnyu »

magicalhippo wrote: post #116
throwaway48476 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern cars aren't designed to be easy to work on which really inflates the labor hours required for even trivial issues.

The my front left indicator light went on my BMW i3. Tried looking up the specs for the bulb to buy a new one. Of course it wasn't that simple. Oh boy was I naive. No, it required a whole new headlight assembly, $800 plus labor. Funnily enough, the car got totalled shortly after, before I had decided to go ahead with the repair. Someone hit my SO as she was in a roundabout, and the impact moved the car several meters…

Damn, crash tests should include repair costs for many types of minor accidents. Maybe we will see two piece rear bumpers and sacrificial headlight lenses.

Re: The rise of the disposable car

#235

Post by smackeyacky »

nimbius wrote: post #75

The rich have been flogging this idea since cash for clunkers. That, because they run through cars like shit through a goose, you will too. Speaking as a master diesel mechanic, this is a deleterious line of thinking for anyone with less than a few million dollars. Every car has 20 years of parts, and most Japanese cars have closer into 50 years of parts. Any engine built after 2010 will likely last half a million mi…

I have mixed feelings about this - having owned and repaired a lot of vehicles for my own use I don't think it's always true an engine will last half a million miles, just go watch the "I do cars" channel on youtube and you'll get some idea.

The big problem here is survivorship bias - the cars that did last will likely keep lasting. You see this with notoriously terrible cars like 1980s Jaguars. The owners have persisted through various catastrophic failures that would make ordinary people abandon the vehicle, so you end up with a subset of Jags that run nicely and have all the engineering problems sorted out by the after market.

Re: The rise of the disposable car

#236

Post by fingerlocks »

nimbius wrote: post #86
jandrese wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's usually not the engine that fails. The transmission is far more likely to be the weak point, and after that it is rust destroying the body or frame. The average age of a car is like 13 years old. Most people are definitely not buying new ones every 5 years.

I agree, a transmission is really only good for around 200k miles. However, you can buy a used transmission in most cases for under 3 grand, and again labor for this thanks to automation is likely less than $500. The real blocker I dont mention is time. Your shop will need that car for a few days and shipping will take time too. At some point the wait isnt worth it anymore. The upside is, 2 used Toyotas are still che…

You didn’t mention the third option: rebuilding.

A transmission rebuild refreshes consumables like bronze bearings and seals, damaged pinions are replaced, and the rest are machined back to precision spec. This is cheaper than a used transmission. I paid less than a thousand for this service, when the quality used goes for $4k.

Re: The rise of the disposable car

#237

Post by fingerlocks »

blakes wrote: post #152
nimbius wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, a transmission is really only good for around 200k miles. However, you can buy a used transmission in most cases for under 3 grand, and again labor for this thanks to automation is likely less than $500. The real blocker I dont mention is time. Your shop will need that car for a few days and shipping will take time too. At some point the wait isnt worth it anymore. The upside is, 2 used Toyotas are still che…

There is probably no transmission in a US road car that can be replaced for $500 in labor at an auto shop. Your buddy or some rando may do it, but no shop will for that price. Typical shop rate is $120-$220/hour. Most shops are going to charge a minimum of 4 hours, but probably closer to 8 hours. Have you ever been under a car? The amount of "automation" required to replace a transmission is still in the arena of sci…

I have personally replaced a Volkswagen transmission in under an hour. I did it alone, in a driveway, with a regular floor jack, a skateboard, and a set of harbor freight wrenches.

Re: The rise of the disposable car

#238

Post by jazzyjackson »

dsalfdslfdsa wrote: post #7
dragontamer wrote: post #4

https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/avera... The opposite. With cars reaching much more advanced ages today, when a collision happens it's a write-off. The modern car isn't 'disposable'. In fact, all statistics point to us holding onto cars longer today than ever before. Today's cars are the most durable that they've ever been.

The OP's article was careful to make this distinction, and I think it's very interesting (as well as being the crucial point of the article). Cars are now more reliable and last longer, but when they do develop a problem, it's less economically viable to repair them.

isn't it the more economically viable thing to not have to make any repairs?

Re: The rise of the disposable car

#239

Post by jazzyjackson »

vel0city wrote: post #70
timw4mail wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that CVTs are more like a chain, i.e. a segmented metal belt. It sure seems like they would be great for large trucks if they could be made beefy enough.

When people use the term "chain" in this context, they're usually thinking of it moving a sprocket with teeth that fit in between gaps on the chain. You're right that automotive CVTs are made with a lot of metal bits connected on a band for greater durability, but most would still just call it a belt as it relies on the friction between the edges of it and the cones to move the cones instead of pulling on teeth. Thin…

after hearing that the prius cvt didn't use a belt I had to watch a few youtube videos on planetary gearsets - mind bending stuff and dead simple to boot!
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