So, LLMs can’t do basic arithmetic very well at all but people use them to analyze financial statements?
Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models
211–219 of 219 posts
Re: Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
As fas as I know the more people use the strategy the worse it performs, the market is not static, it adapts. Other people react to the buy/sell of your strategy and try to exploit the new pattern.
This is an interesting observation in combination with the popular pension strategy to continually buy index funds regardless of performance.
It only works until most people do it
Re: Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think I could probably make more money selling a tool or strategy that consistently, reliably makes ~2% more than government bonds than I could make off it myself, with my current capital.
You can't do it because there are lots of fraudulent operators in the space. Think about it: someone comes up to you offering a way to give you risk-free return. All your ponzi flags go up. It's a market for lemons. If you had this, the only way to make it is to raise money some other way then redirect it (illegal but you'll get away with it most likely), or to slowly work your way up the ranks proving yourself till…
> The fact that you can't reveal how means you can't prove you're not Ponzi. If you reveal how, they don't need you.
This is why I am wary of all those +10 minute YT vids telling you how you can't make significant amounts of money quickly or reliably in a short amount of time with very limited capital.
Re: Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think I could probably make more money selling a tool or strategy that consistently, reliably makes ~2% more than government bonds than I could make off it myself, with my current capital.
You can't do it because there are lots of fraudulent operators in the space. Think about it: someone comes up to you offering a way to give you risk-free return. All your ponzi flags go up. It's a market for lemons. If you had this, the only way to make it is to raise money some other way then redirect it (illegal but you'll get away with it most likely), or to slowly work your way up the ranks proving yourself till…
It's been done again and again by funds. A new fund or fund company convinces someone with some name and reputation to come work for them and they become the name and reputation that gives some credibility and sells the new fund. Clients start by putting in just a little money and more later. Nobody knows the hard details outside of the new firm. Sometimes it goes nowhere and nobody hears of the thing again, sometimes it works out and they let nobody unaware.
Re: Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree this isn't earth shattering, but I think the benefit here is that it's a general solution instead of one trained on financial statements specifically.
That is not a benefit. If you use a tool like this to try to compete with sophisticated actors (e.g. all major firms in the capital markets space) you will lose every time.
If you don't look, you will never see.
Re: Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models
#216great paper.
Re: Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models
#217[deleted]
Re: Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models
#218[flagged]
Re: Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well I work in prop trading and have only ever worked for prop firms- our firm trades it's own capital and distributes it to the owners and us under profit share agreements - so we have no incentive to sell ourselves as any smarter than the reality. Saying it's all high school math is a bit of a loaded phrase. "High school math" incorporates basically all practical computer science and machine learning and statistics…
> It's probably more about avoiding blunders than it is having some genius paradigm shifting idea. I too believe this is key towards successful trading. Put in other words, even with an exceptionally successful algorithm, you still need a really good system for managing capital. In this line of business, your capital is the raw material. You cannot operate without money. A highly leveraged setup can get completely wi…
Here is a simple way to think about it. The markets follow random walk and there is a 50/50 chance of being right or wrong. If you can make more when you are right, and lose less when you are wrong, you are on your way to being profitable.