171–180 of 219 posts
To everyone thinking they can sell a LLM wrapper based on this - this is a very tough domain. You will soon run into data, distribution, and low demand. Funds that would actually use this are already using it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxxmzoZTRW4
there are other videos on their youtube channel on the more analytical aspect of it, I just decided to share the latest one.
It's been a hit and miss for now, depending on the model used (chatgpt/gemini/clause etc.) the results can vary somewhat.
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They hire people who know that maths doesn't "top out here", so they can point to them and say "look at that mathematicians/physicists/engineers/PHD's we employ - your $20Bn is safe here". Hedge funds aren't run by idiots, just a different kind of "smart" to an engineer. The engineers are are incredibly smart people, and so the bots are "incredibly smart" but "finance" is criticised by "true academics" because financ…
It is just a different (applied) discipline. It's like math v engineering - you can come up with some beautiful pde theory to describe this column in a building will bend under dynamic load and use it to figure out exactly the proportions. But engineering is about figuring out "just make its ratio of width to height greater than x" Because the goal is different - it's not about coming up with the most pleasing descri…
My interpretation of "finance is where brains go to die" is more along the lines of finance being less good for society at large compared to pure science. Like if someone invents something new and useful in a lab for their phd, then they go find a job in finance. The brain died because it was onto something and then abandoned it for being a cog in the machine.
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agreed. most people can't create a custom tailored finance statement model. but many people can write the following sentence: "analyze this financial statement and suggest a market strategy." and if that sentence performs as well as an (albeit old) custom model, and is likely to have compound improvements in its performance over time with no changes to the instruction sentence...
"buy and hold the S&P 500 until you're ready to retire"
That is bad advice.
VGT Vanguard Technology ETF has outperformed S&P 500 over the past 20 years.
All the people who say “VTSAX and chill” disappeared in the past 3-4 years because their cherished total passive index fund is no longer the best over long horizons. And no, the markets are not efficient.
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They hire people who know that maths doesn't "top out here", so they can point to them and say "look at that mathematicians/physicists/engineers/PHD's we employ - your $20Bn is safe here". Hedge funds aren't run by idiots, just a different kind of "smart" to an engineer. The engineers are are incredibly smart people, and so the bots are "incredibly smart" but "finance" is criticised by "true academics" because financ…
It is just a different (applied) discipline. It's like math v engineering - you can come up with some beautiful pde theory to describe this column in a building will bend under dynamic load and use it to figure out exactly the proportions. But engineering is about figuring out "just make its ratio of width to height greater than x" Because the goal is different - it's not about coming up with the most pleasing descri…
Top story on HN because we all secretly think we can be the next Jim Simons when in reality we're a few months away from posting loss porn to /r/WSB. If standardized LLM models are used to analyze statements, expect the statements to be massaged in ways that produce more favorable results from the LLM.
I can’t wait until there’s warnings on stock market apps like cigarettes and lottery tickets. Well actually I guess there are no warnings on lotto tickets, probably for the exact same reason as why the government doesn’t protect people from being scammed by hedge funds with way more info than they have: the government needs that revenue.
“78% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.”
https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-confirms-perm...
Of course, there are a lot more ways to lose money than CFDs.
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Do you use llama 3 for your work?
No hedge fund registered before the last 2 weeks will use Llama3 for their "prod work" beyond "experiments". Quant trading is about "going fast" or "being super right", so either you'd need to be sitting on some huge llama.cpp/transformer improvement (possible but unlikely) or its more likely just some boring math applied faster than others. Even if they are using a "LLM", they wont tell you or even hint at it - "eff…
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Far too much in the way of "maybe in a few years" LLM prediction relies on the unspoken assumption that there will not be any gains in the state of the art in the existing, non-LLM tools. "In a few years" you'd have the benefit of the current, bespoke tools, plus all the work you've put into improving them in the meantime. And the LLM would still be behind, unless you believe that at some point in the future, a radic…
Specialists exist because the human generalist can no longer possibly learn and perfect all there is to learn in the world not because the specialist has magic powers the generalist does. If there were some super generalist that could then the specialist would have no power.
"I didn't violate a red light. I wasn't even driving, the AI was!"
"The AI said you did, that's 50,000 yuan please."