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Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

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Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#331

Post by dkrich »

parineum wrote: post #136
PaulKeeble wrote: post #89

This likely has more staying power than the crypto boom that fueled AMD's GPUs to enormous heights but when that crashed AMD ended up holding a lot of stock it couldn't shift and had an enormous right down of inventory. This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task or a realisation that the issues with AI just can't be solved and a cooling off of the market hype. What I fear is…

AI is still fueled by hope. The actually applications of it (they do exist and they are valuable) pale in comparison and value to what it's valuation is based on, it's future promise. When the people who say things like "AI is going to replace all accountants!" stop speaking the the future tense, it's value will be justified. For now, it's OpenAI spending billions developing a product they hope will make trillions an…

Right now I’d say it’s 5% functionality and 95% marketing hype for companies that want investors to believe they are innovative. For the most part these companies are just incorporating chat bots and inaccurate abstraction layers into their platforms and calling it the greatest transformation in history. What feels off to me is that most of these people don’t have great track record with these types of predictions and are historically trend followers.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#332

Post by mike_hearn »

latchkey wrote: post #199
Vvector wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hardware has never been AMD's problem. Their chips are great, on paper. But their software has always been a few generations behind.

They are moving a lot more quickly now on resolving those issues. It won't happen over night, but the ship is definitely changing course on that.

We've been hearing that line for years, but HN comments are a valuable source of info on where NVDA might go in future. You're the only poster here I could name who is strongly pro-AMD in the AI space. Everyone else seems to put their toes in the water in the hope of being able to get an edge by avoiding NVIDIA's monopoly prices, immediately gets burned by trash software quality and runs away screaming "never again".

I only dabble in AI stuff but have decades of experience doing quick surface-level quality checks of open source projects. I looked at some of AMD's ROCm repos late last year. Even basic stuff like the documentation for their RNG libraries didn't inspire confidence. READMEs had blatant typos in, everything gave off a feeling of immense lack of effort or care. Looking again today the ROCrand docs do seem improved, at least on the surface, I haven't tried it out for real.

But if we cast the net a little wider again, the same problems rear their ugly head. Flash Attention is a pretty important kernel to have if working with LLMs, maybe I'd like one of those for AMD hardware?

https://github.com/ROCm/flash-attention

We're in luck! An official AMD repo with flash attention in it, great! Except.... the README says at the top:

Requirements: CUDA 11.4 and above. We recommend the Pytorch container from Nvidia, which has all the required tools to install FlashAttention.

Really? Ah, if we scroll down all the way to the bottom we can find a new section that says "AMD/ROCm: Prerequisite: MI200 & MI300 GPUs". Guys, why not just rewrite the README, literally the first thing you see, to put the most important information up front? Why not ensure it makes sense? It takes 10 seconds and is the kind of attention to detail that makes me think the rest of your work will be high quality too.

Checking the issue tracker we see people reporting that the fork is very out of date, and that some models just mysteriously don't work with it due to bugs. These issue reports go unanswered for months. And let's not even go there on the hardware compatibility front, everyone already knows what "AMD support" really means (not the AMD cards you might actually own) vs what "NVIDIA support" means (any device that supports the needed CUDA version, of any size).

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#333

Post by guenthert »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

That seems like fine advise, if the market were rational.

I'd think, it's as important to understand people than it is to understand businesses when it comes to the stock market.

Said that, don't take financial advise from me, I haven't had much luck with my bets.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#334

Post by czl »

anon291 wrote: post #296
panarky wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Investing is mostly about not losing money Counterintuitively, when I focus hard on not losing money, I become too risk averse, I fail to take appropriate risk, and my returns are stuck in the low single digits. I can't count the times I sold great companies like Apple and Netflix and Tesla years too early because I was afraid to lose money and wanted to "lock in" a 50% gain. By focusing on potential for high retur…

It's impossible to lose money you don't bet. I don't understand this mentality. If you have a 30k portfolio... fine bet the 5-10k... even if you lose it you're fine. > I can't count the times I sold great companies like Apple and Netflix and Tesla years too early because I was afraid to lose money and wanted to "lock in" a 50% gain. Ah the sunk cost fallacy. Having an exit strategy is important. Never beat yourself u…

FYI: This isn't a case of the sunk cost fallacy. The sunk cost fallacy involves continuing an investment due to the amount already invested, regardless of future potential. What you're describing is more related to regret aversion and hindsight bias.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#335

Post by Detrytus »

eaenki wrote: post #94
Detrytus wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not GP, but that's exactly what I'm doing. Sold NVIDIA recently at 869 USD (having bought it at 453 USD), and invested profits in Intel :) We'll see how that plays out in a year or two.

really? intel a sideways stock from the 70s is the best long you found in the entire planet? out of all the financial instruments and all the markets and all the categories u actually believe that’s the best pain to gain ratio play

Well, I'm betting on Gelsinger's plan to launch Intel 18A process, and regaining process lead - this should bring Intel's stock price from current $31 to at least $70. Also, it's a hedge against China invading Taiwan and blowing up TSMC, in which case it would probably skyrocket to $100+. In the meantime Intel pays nice dividends.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#336

Post by Detrytus »

abduhl wrote: post #156
Detrytus wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not GP, but that's exactly what I'm doing. Sold NVIDIA recently at 869 USD (having bought it at 453 USD), and invested profits in Intel :) We'll see how that plays out in a year or two.

$869 sale means you sold between March 2024 and last week. Let’s game this out: 100 shares of NVDA at 453 pared down to just profits from 869 sale would mean holding about 48 shares and selling 52 shares. After today’s after hours movement your invested profit would be worth about $48k, or about $6300 more than when you cashed out your initial investment ($41712). You take that same $41712 and buy INTC between March…

You're talking about this with benefit of hindsight. When I was selling at $869 I would not know how it will go. And, as a matter of fact, a week or two after I sold NVDA dipped to $700, although temporarily. So, it's just a matter of personal risk tolerance, I guess.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#337

Post by sumedh »

hi-v-rocknroll wrote: post #194

And they only have ~18 months of absurd profits from just a couple of customers (Meta and Microsoft/OpenAI) who are likely to realize they don't have the revenue to support 10 figure CapEx and will chose to develop their own chips, cutting NVIDIA out of the loop. I foresee Nvidia stock playing out like a softer version of iomega that will still have consumer demand, but not as much temporary demand from the megacorps…

Isnt one of the reason to buy all this compute is to attract skilled AI people who want all that compute power, makes it easier to hire them.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#338

Post by hatenberg »

allenrb wrote: post #48

We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens: 1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it. 2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Inte…

What is happening is that every government on the planet is forced to procure local DC compute capacity to protect national sovereignty. The US ensured this with SWIFT deplatforming Russia.

And there is nobody else they can buy from on their timelines.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#339

Post by UncleMeat »

bdangubic wrote: post #262
floatinglotus wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

THIS. As much as I wish I put all my money into NVDA when I bought it, I’m happy to have a lot of diversity in high tech IT. The daily swings are not nearly as bad and aim not biting my fingers all day long.

THIS is a way to get rich. To get wealthy, you cannot be diversified. No wealthy person is diversified.

It is also a great way to get poor. Every lottery winner bought a lottery ticket, after all.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#340

Post by tnel77 »

theGnuMe wrote: post #245
burningChrome wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> There are highly profitable companies that nevertheless see their stock price turn around. This happened with a local sports drink maker. It was branded for kids, more healthy, less sugar then Gatorade and energy drinks. Company took off, went public, stock went through the roof for about two years. Blue skies, everything coming up roses, lots of articles in the local business mags and websites. Then their supply…

Nvidia has been around for along time.

Yes, but it does somewhat feel like you missed the point they were trying to make.
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