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Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

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Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#151

Post by AlexandrB »

stocknoob wrote: post #53
allenrb wrote: post #48

We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens: 1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it. 2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Inte…

You know, you can make money with predictions if you have the conviction.

I also think NVDA is overvalued, but timing is everything. They could stay overvalued for years before coming back down. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" and all that.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#152

Post by jldugger »

hhh wrote: post #105
jessriedel wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you just "notice" them selling 20B? How are you getting better data than the analysts?

try to talk to them and see how hard it is to get a gpu

But that's been known for months now. At one point a bloomberg podcast mentioned in passing that nVidia inventory now has a lead time measured in months. Which kinda sounds like the makings of a bullwhip effect induced bubble[0]. Everybody wants inventory now, so they put in massive orders, hopefully get some fraction of what they asked for, and if they happily get too much they can, in theory, easily sell their surplus into the market. Think about how many "AI platforms" boil down to "we have GPUs!"

_If_ this is the bullwhip scenario, then it's basically a gamble about how many million cards nVidia can ship before their own short supply bubble bursts. Or the AI bubble more generally.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#153

Post by panarky »

anon291 wrote: post #79
UncleMeat wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, my uncle lost a fortune investing in a wireless networking company in the 00s. He has worked an entire career in networking and has contributed to bleeding edge systems in the area. This company had excellent tech, but ultimately didn't succeed. A lifetime of savings kaput. nvidia's p/e is also insanely high. "Wow they sure sell a shitload of product" isn't necessarily enough to justify the price.…

The vast majority of financial issues would be prevented simply by following Buffett's advice to not lose money. It's tongue in cheek, but he's correct. Suppose you have a great idea for investing. It doesn't matter how good it is... don't put your life savings into it. If you do this you will make money. Investing is mostly about not losing money.

> Investing is mostly about not losing money

Counterintuitively, when I focus hard on not losing money, I become too risk averse, I fail to take appropriate risk, and my returns are stuck in the low single digits.

I can't count the times I sold great companies like Apple and Netflix and Tesla years too early because I was afraid to lose money and wanted to "lock in" a 50% gain.

By focusing on potential for high returns instead of not losing money, with a diverse portfolio of assets that don't correlate perfectly with each other, total returns are much greater even though individual bets can show big losses for months or years.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#154

Post by joe_the_user »

ein0p wrote: post #120

What’s baffling about all this is both AMD and Intel have competing offerings and those offerings see next to no traction in spite of being much more attractive from the cost standpoint. I understand why they aren’t taking off on the training side: fragmentation is very counterproductive there. But why not deploy them in large quantities for inference at least? The effort of porting transformer based models is trivia…

I think the problem the other players have is they don't actually want to compete head-on with Nvidia.

AMD actually commissioned a drop-in CUDA emulator and we found out 'cause they stopped financing it and they open-sourced it as parts of the contract.

I would speculate that no one actually wants a "clone wars" situation since it would commodify the GPU and reduce everyone's profit rate.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#155

Post by jldugger »

NoboruWataya wrote: post #143
elevatedastalt wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like insider trading to me. The backorders your company has are material non-public information.

"My company bought their product" does not sound like material non-public information. It certainly doesn't sound material (and for this reason I also think it was sheer dumb luck that the investment paid off so handsomely, rather than intimate knowledge of the business).

It's absolutely treated as insider info by policy where I work. It might not rise to SEC enforcement action, but if caught you probably won't have a job anymore...

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#156

Post by abduhl »

Detrytus wrote: post #60
stocknoob wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know, you can make money with predictions if you have the conviction.

Not GP, but that's exactly what I'm doing. Sold NVIDIA recently at 869 USD (having bought it at 453 USD), and invested profits in Intel :) We'll see how that plays out in a year or two.

$869 sale means you sold between March 2024 and last week. Let’s game this out:

100 shares of NVDA at 453 pared down to just profits from 869 sale would mean holding about 48 shares and selling 52 shares. After today’s after hours movement your invested profit would be worth about $48k, or about $6300 more than when you cashed out your initial investment ($41712).

You take that same $41712 and buy INTC between March and now. If it was bought in March then you’re in for something like $43/share or 970 shares. Intel has been sliding since April and is now at $31. Your profit from NVDA has shrunk by nearly 30%. In the worst case (you bought in March rather than April), you’ve given up near $19k in profit by following your convictions. Your gains have gone from 115% (had you held) to potentially as low as 70%. I guess it’s all house money anyways though, right?

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#157

Post by hiddencost »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

Invest in index funds and stay away from people who give you investing advice. They usually only tell about the times they got lucky.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#158

Post by Vvector »

josephg wrote: post #138
tharmas wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. But another piece of knowledge about Nvidia is its competitors are waaaaaaaaay behind. They stand peerless. Another piece of information is that CUDA software was provide free or cheaply to Universities doing LLM research I think. And the software is easy to use.

> its competitors are waaaaaaaaay behind. They stand peerless. Its competitors are only way behind when it comes to software support. The hardware coming out of Intel and amd is, especially for its price, very capable. Given how much money is being invested in AI right now, I don’t see Nvidia’s moat lasting more than a few more years.

Hardware has never been AMD's problem. Their chips are great, on paper. But their software has always been a few generations behind.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#159

Post by bradfox2 »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

I work at the intersection of power and AI. Buy utility stock. The bottleneck for AI expansion will not be installed GPUs, but the electricity they need to run. We are in an energy crisis and not many realize it yet. Virgina, Texas, Arizona and soon to be Ohio and Georgia are out of generation capacity and the data centers are like locusts.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#160

Post by ryandrake »

jldugger wrote: post #152
hhh wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

try to talk to them and see how hard it is to get a gpu

But that's been known for months now. At one point a bloomberg podcast mentioned in passing that nVidia inventory now has a lead time measured in months. Which kinda sounds like the makings of a bullwhip effect induced bubble[0]. Everybody wants inventory now, so they put in massive orders, hopefully get some fraction of what they asked for, and if they happily get too much they can, in theory, easily sell their surp…

Exactly. Very few people have actual, factual knowledge about whether Wall Street traders analysts are right or wrong about some company performance metric. They say "they know" but it's just hunches and gut feelings. The people who actually know for a fact are insiders and cannot legally trade on the knowledge. Everyone else are just gamblers who think they "have a system" that works.
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