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Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

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Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#131

Post by mewpmewp2 »

allenrb wrote: post #48

We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens: 1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it. 2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Inte…

There is also third option - which I'm not saying I think happens, but if AGI was to happen then there is possibility of just few winners taking it all. Whoever gets there first would simply snowball away. It would be end game of capitalism.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#132

Post by andrewmcwatters »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

Total crap. Doesn't pass the smell test when 99% of people say this.

Would you buy a lemon for 2.336T? No? Probably not. What do you specifically value Nvidia at? Not the share price. Your own calculation. You, AnotherGoodName, are going to buy Nvidia outright. You're basically Elon Musk, and you think you can create better AI chips.

You don't know what that number is? Then you don't intimately know the value of the company.

Knowing tech intimately means nothing.

You know how much a banana costs, right? You probably wouldn't buy one for $10.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#133

Post by tintor »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

How is this not insider trading?

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#134

Post by jbverschoor »

elevatedastalt wrote: post #126
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #46

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we…

Sounds like insider trading to me. The backorders your company has are material non-public information.

Yet it is not

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#135

Post by mnau »

tharmas wrote: post #116
UncleMeat wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, my uncle lost a fortune investing in a wireless networking company in the 00s. He has worked an entire career in networking and has contributed to bleeding edge systems in the area. This company had excellent tech, but ultimately didn't succeed. A lifetime of savings kaput. nvidia's p/e is also insanely high. "Wow they sure sell a shitload of product" isn't necessarily enough to justify the price.…

True. But another piece of knowledge about Nvidia is its competitors are waaaaaaaaay behind. They stand peerless. Another piece of information is that CUDA software was provide free or cheaply to Universities doing LLM research I think. And the software is easy to use.

Isn't CUDA basically hidden behind pyrorch and others?

I know that it's touted as the key competitive advantage, but it seems to stem from the fact it actually works, unlike others.

Still great advantage, but not a lock in. If competitors get their act together, couldn't they just replace CUDA with another API, all hidden somewhere in the sw stack?

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#136

Post by parineum »

PaulKeeble wrote: post #89

This likely has more staying power than the crypto boom that fueled AMD's GPUs to enormous heights but when that crashed AMD ended up holding a lot of stock it couldn't shift and had an enormous right down of inventory. This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task or a realisation that the issues with AI just can't be solved and a cooling off of the market hype. What I fear is…

AI is still fueled by hope.

The actually applications of it (they do exist and they are valuable) pale in comparison and value to what it's valuation is based on, it's future promise.

When the people who say things like "AI is going to replace all accountants!" stop speaking the the future tense, it's value will be justified. For now, it's OpenAI spending billions developing a product they hope will make trillions and Nvidia is happy to sit in the background selling billions of dollars in compute.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#137

Post by Clubber »

ein0p wrote: post #120

What’s baffling about all this is both AMD and Intel have competing offerings and those offerings see next to no traction in spite of being much more attractive from the cost standpoint. I understand why they aren’t taking off on the training side: fragmentation is very counterproductive there. But why not deploy them in large quantities for inference at least? The effort of porting transformer based models is trivia…

CUDA is their API and is proprietary. It's very fast and it's a significant competitive advantage.

https://analyticsindiamag.com/is-cuda-nvidias-competitive-mo...

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#138

Post by josephg »

tharmas wrote: post #116
UncleMeat wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, my uncle lost a fortune investing in a wireless networking company in the 00s. He has worked an entire career in networking and has contributed to bleeding edge systems in the area. This company had excellent tech, but ultimately didn't succeed. A lifetime of savings kaput. nvidia's p/e is also insanely high. "Wow they sure sell a shitload of product" isn't necessarily enough to justify the price.…

True. But another piece of knowledge about Nvidia is its competitors are waaaaaaaaay behind. They stand peerless. Another piece of information is that CUDA software was provide free or cheaply to Universities doing LLM research I think. And the software is easy to use.

> its competitors are waaaaaaaaay behind. They stand peerless.

Its competitors are only way behind when it comes to software support. The hardware coming out of Intel and amd is, especially for its price, very capable. Given how much money is being invested in AI right now, I don’t see Nvidia’s moat lasting more than a few more years.

Re: Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

#140

Post by alecco »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #55
nabla9 wrote: post #19

Bloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were: 400% earnings growth and 242% revenue growth. The reality was 461% earnings growth (629% GAAP) 262% revenue growth. 78.9% gross margin. Nvidia did it again.

Intel could get lucky like Nvidia if Intel doesn't buy back stock and instead spends money on R&D. edit: "Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger raised a few eyebrows by attributing Nvidia's current dominance of the AI market to luck" - https://www.extremetech.com/computing/nvidia-engineer-respon... .

They would need a culture change. Starting with a mostly independent Skunk Works division and a rethink of their software stack. I wouldn't bet on any of that happening.
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