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But it also feels silly that if we did need protection from robots destroying humanity, that it should be performed by the companies creating the robots.
What is the actual threat of AI? Job loss? Tech already did that, the little old ladies that opened your envelope at sears and roebuck got replace by computers a long time ago... Deepfakes? Are we talking the moon landing? Avengers movies? AGI taking over the world? Does no one realize that without people going out every day and doing work the world ends in a week... Does no one remember when we had the spate of tran…
“Can we just turn it off?"
"It has thought of that. It will not give you a sign that makes you want to turn it off before it is too late to do that."
What is the actual threat of AI? Job loss? Tech already did that, the little old ladies that opened your envelope at sears and roebuck got replace by computers a long time ago... Deepfakes? Are we talking the moon landing? Avengers movies? AGI taking over the world? Does no one realize that without people going out every day and doing work the world ends in a week... Does no one remember when we had the spate of tran…
The threat basically boils down to runaway destructive swarms which destroy infrastructure or poison the atmosphere etc. Imagine an AI agent which manipulates exposed SCADA systems. That could be incredibly destructive!
GP's point (and I agree) is that an evil actor could, in principle, do those things already (and a much more intelligent one, while we're at it).
And yet, it doesn't happen. Why? Because reality is not a "winner takes all" game. Actions carry consequences and other factors limit the extent of damage any actor could do.
It is way more threatening to human life that there exists, today, a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons all around the world.
What is the actual threat of AI? Job loss? Tech already did that, the little old ladies that opened your envelope at sears and roebuck got replace by computers a long time ago... Deepfakes? Are we talking the moon landing? Avengers movies? AGI taking over the world? Does no one realize that without people going out every day and doing work the world ends in a week... Does no one remember when we had the spate of tran…
If AI ever replaces white collar jobs then that will be at an unprecedented scale and with essentially nowhere to shift to.
But so far it doesn‘t seem to happen.
Jan Leike Resigns from OpenAI - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40363273 - May 2024 (391 comments)
Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40361128 - May 2024 (781 comments)
What is the actual threat of AI? Job loss? Tech already did that, the little old ladies that opened your envelope at sears and roebuck got replace by computers a long time ago... Deepfakes? Are we talking the moon landing? Avengers movies? AGI taking over the world? Does no one realize that without people going out every day and doing work the world ends in a week... Does no one remember when we had the spate of tran…
Our parents and grandparents getting scammed by deepfakes seems like a very real threat. Not only do anecdotes abound (plus FBI's database of reports) but the elderly were already vulnerable to these scams since before the telephone was invented. LLMs and all the voice cloning tech really turns up scammers' psychological weapons to 11 and scale up processes that were previously very manual.
> AGI taking over the world? Does no one realize that without people going out every day and doing work the world ends in a week... Does no one remember when we had the spate of transformer shootings? A rifle or a bucket of water ends AGI threats
This isn't a real threat and I think most people are missing the more practical threat: someone - either a nation state or a small group of well resourced individuals - hitting an industrial singularity, allowing them to rapidly scale up self-improving robotics and automation to the point where their only limit is their ability to acquire raw materials. I think by definition, long before we hit an AI singularity with runaway super intelligence that can take over the world, we'll have a much dumber AI capable of maximizing killer paperclips for their human overlords to take over the world (that's my plan anyway :-)).
I don't think we're anywhere near the latter yet, but the language in the OpenAI blogpost announcing Sora points in that direction. The first step to an AI that can orchestrate a factory is learning the physical world through video. Once an AI model can follow instructions and directly control a robotic arm via camera, we'll be entering the next stage of the industrial revolution.
What is the actual threat of AI? Job loss? Tech already did that, the little old ladies that opened your envelope at sears and roebuck got replace by computers a long time ago... Deepfakes? Are we talking the moon landing? Avengers movies? AGI taking over the world? Does no one realize that without people going out every day and doing work the world ends in a week... Does no one remember when we had the spate of tran…
You might enjoy this article ( https://aisafety.dance/ ) the section: "No, AI Safety isn't a fringe concern by sci-fi weebs" > AI Safety / AI Risk used to be less mainstream, but now in 2024, the US & UK governments now have AI Safety-specific departments![10]10 This resulted from many of the top AI researchers raising alarm bells about it. These folks include: > Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio > Stuart Russell and…
An actual plausible threat should be easy to describe. In terms of arguments, vagueness indicates weakness.
What is the actual threat of AI? Job loss? Tech already did that, the little old ladies that opened your envelope at sears and roebuck got replace by computers a long time ago... Deepfakes? Are we talking the moon landing? Avengers movies? AGI taking over the world? Does no one realize that without people going out every day and doing work the world ends in a week... Does no one remember when we had the spate of tran…
So, some organization deliberately plugging the technology into something dangerous like a defense computer network that includes computers that can be used to control weapons systems. That would potentially be more worrisome because one would assume that the organization setting it up, being a military agency, would be building it to be more resistant to attack than your average municipal power grid.
Also, we don't necessarily need to posit that it deliberately tries to take over the world, Skynet-style. Just that it does something surprising and unintended. Which is not necessarily all that far-fetched? Despite the leaps and bounds we've made in raw performance at certain tasks, this whole branch of technology continues to be notoriously flaky.
What is the actual threat of AI? Job loss? Tech already did that, the little old ladies that opened your envelope at sears and roebuck got replace by computers a long time ago... Deepfakes? Are we talking the moon landing? Avengers movies? AGI taking over the world? Does no one realize that without people going out every day and doing work the world ends in a week... Does no one remember when we had the spate of tran…