121–130 of 166 posts
https://www.useequityval.com/model?ticker=CRSP Current Price: $56.22 Projected Price: $20,806,772,549,824,028.00 Difference: 37,009,556,296,378,460% Glad I'm long.
I’m consistently surprised at the lack of basic financial literacy in the HN crowd. The title says this is a tool to create financial models , not that it is a well-tuned financial model. Yeah, you have to make better assumptions than straight-line extrapolation from last year’s trend to arrive at reasonable valuations. The point is that this shows you what assumptions you have to make to arrive at a rationally-calcu…
>The models that make the big bucks are the ones that ingest a ton of other external data to predict the numbers that go in the data entry cells here. And yeah, those don’t get posted online for free. Do such models even exist? As far as I know NN are only good at function approximation. Why do we think that the market evolves according to a mathematical function? To me, financial markets seem chaotic in nature.
I’m consistently surprised at the lack of basic financial literacy in the HN crowd. The title says this is a tool to create financial models , not that it is a well-tuned financial model. Yeah, you have to make better assumptions than straight-line extrapolation from last year’s trend to arrive at reasonable valuations. The point is that this shows you what assumptions you have to make to arrive at a rationally-calcu…
... But with one year lag.
Very nice, coincidentally I have been thinking about making a similar tool lately, but I'd make it quite a bit more conservative. I'd want to be able to define a model like "I think the fair value of a company is its net current assets plus its last 5 years of earnings", and have the tool email me whenever I can buy shares in any company substantially below that price, or sell them substantially above. It wouldn't be…
Hi the data is from https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs
https://www.useequityval.com/model?ticker=CRSP Current Price: $56.22 Projected Price: $20,806,772,549,824,028.00 Difference: 37,009,556,296,378,460% Glad I'm long.
Yeah, there should be multiple massive disclaimers on this site. I'd be worried about regulatory issues as well. Edit: why disagree?
Also there is no real company / person mentioned as an owner at least on the website so the privacy policy is kind of a "trust me bro".
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>The models that make the big bucks are the ones that ingest a ton of other external data to predict the numbers that go in the data entry cells here. And yeah, those don’t get posted online for free. Do such models even exist? As far as I know NN are only good at function approximation. Why do we think that the market evolves according to a mathematical function? To me, financial markets seem chaotic in nature.
It’s like asking why are gym memberships and diet advice more marketed than eating less and free body weight exercises you can do anywhere. There is a market for solutions and good news, whereas there isn’t one for bad news, even if it’s free.
But the noble thing to do is to stop luring people into these wealth-gap increasing casinos.
https://www.useequityval.com/model?ticker=CRSP Current Price: $56.22 Projected Price: $20,806,772,549,824,028.00 Difference: 37,009,556,296,378,460% Glad I'm long.
Im skeptical whether these types of models can help you make better investment decisions. The fate of a company usually hinges on some fundamental question. For Apple it is whether they can stay a prominent platform that can capture a significant portion of the value created on it. For Tesla it is how fast their self driving tech will evolve. For Google it is whether AI will make search obsolete or more valuable.
Yes - it is well known there is no "secret investing sauce" - this has been proven over and over. The only people who tell you otherwise are people with something to sell you, or people who have tricked themselves into believing otherwise. This kind of stuff pops up whenever the market is on a tear.
Your model projects the price of Nvidia will rise to $30,173. How does it arrive at that?
I’m consistently surprised at the lack of basic financial literacy in the HN crowd. The title says this is a tool to create financial models , not that it is a well-tuned financial model. Yeah, you have to make better assumptions than straight-line extrapolation from last year’s trend to arrive at reasonable valuations. The point is that this shows you what assumptions you have to make to arrive at a rationally-calcu…
If you look at the Price Targets for many "growth stocks", you'll see that professional analysts struggle with this as much as anyone.
Even for stocks with predictable profit models like resource extraction companies, it can be near useless because as soon as some external catalyst people didn't expect comes along triggers the commodity price to change significantly, the DCF valuation goes out the window.
IMO DCF is more useful for sensitivity analysis than actually valuing a business in some "accurate way".
All that being said -- it is definitely valuable to understand where price targets come from!