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Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

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Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#131
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical that FB would be higher today if it had IPOd lower.

It would be higher relative to the IPO price . Among other things, this means that employee options would still be above water. Rather more motivating than underwater options after years of death-march hours.

Wait, I don't understand this bit. Surely the employees don't have options with a face value of $38, do they?

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#132
post #40

There are only two parties hurt by this: 1. The premiere clients of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who bought into the lie that FB should trade at >100:1 P/E; and 2. Facebook. (1) I don't care about. (2) is the interesting one. You'll note that I don't include the employees in the list of injured parties. They're largely in a lockout anyway (I assume?). Whether it opens at $38 and drops to $30 or starts at $20 and…

If PE is so important why is LinkedIn http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ALNKD not getting bashed as fb is. Both are kind of social networks (used differently with different target audience) . LinkedIn is trading at 600+ PE.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can anyone explain to me how the P/E ratio is a meaningful metric for a company's stock price and what it "should be" at when that company does not distribute earnings to the shareholders? There are two ways to gauge the value of a company. One way (the way to which you allude) is to buy it and hope that in the future, someone thinks it's worth more than what you paid for it. Some people call this the Greater Fool th…

So does this mean that if you use the Graham-Dodd-Buffet model of valuation, a company that pays a dividend to shareholders would get a higher valuation (all other factors being equal) than the hypothetical same company that does not pay dividends?

No

Because if the company keeps the cash it still is part of the company worth calculation (unless investors expect managers to steal it in the future). Not issuing a dividend is also a signal that the company believes it can earn a better return on the cash then if it were returned to the shareholder.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#135
post #62
post #40

There are only two parties hurt by this: 1. The premiere clients of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who bought into the lie that FB should trade at >100:1 P/E; and 2. Facebook. (1) I don't care about. (2) is the interesting one. You'll note that I don't include the employees in the list of injured parties. They're largely in a lockout anyway (I assume?). Whether it opens at $38 and drops to $30 or starts at $20 and…

Honest question: Why do you think that a share price of $30 is appropriate? Facebook still has a P/E more 6 times that of Google or Apple. To me (I don't understand a lot about the stock market), $30 sounds just as arbitrary as $38.

You shouldn't really look at stock price (it's an arbitrary number). You should instead look at Market Value - should FB be worth 80bn when Google is worth 200?

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#136
post #40

There are only two parties hurt by this: 1. The premiere clients of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who bought into the lie that FB should trade at >100:1 P/E; and 2. Facebook. (1) I don't care about. (2) is the interesting one. You'll note that I don't include the employees in the list of injured parties. They're largely in a lockout anyway (I assume?). Whether it opens at $38 and drops to $30 or starts at $20 and…

Clients of investment banks in an IPO have a choice to invest or pass on the deal. There are many things they consider when making this decision, and the price of the deal is one of those. Assuming they are not given inaccurate information, they are not getting "bilked" by the banks if the stock goes down in the aftermarket. The clients know this is a possibility, and they chose to invest at $38 per share. Right now those shares are worth less than the offer price, which is disappointing to the clients, but they made the decision to invest at $38 per share.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be higher relative to the IPO price . Among other things, this means that employee options would still be above water. Rather more motivating than underwater options after years of death-march hours.

Wait, I don't understand this bit. Surely the employees don't have options with a face value of $38, do they?

Two bits.

No, the strike likely isn't 38. But downward valuation on stocks or options decreases their value.

If options were granted (and apparently this isn't the case at FB, see the RSU comment -- restricted stock units), then there would be _some_ strike value. Often shares are granted at some price as well (though it's frequently at some nominal "par" value, typical $0.01).

With options, it's possible for employees to end up with no value at all. In some cases, companies have re-issued "above-water" grants, though this has been frowned on in recent years.

With stock, again, you have the situation of sitting on, say, a few hundred or thousand shares, and watching your paper worth drop from $40k to $20k to .... Now, according to Zuck, that's not cool money, but to your typical Valley engineer, it's still plenty green, and hurts to see it wash away.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the app has been out since 2008, gone through multiple iterations, currently holds a 2-star rating on the App Store, and still hasn't managed to monetize 60% of their impressions.

It's not that is hasn't "managed to monetize," they haven't even TRIED. Very big difference.

But who is monetizing mobile banner ads?

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the app has been out since 2008, gone through multiple iterations, currently holds a 2-star rating on the App Store, and still hasn't managed to monetize 60% of their impressions.

It's not that is hasn't "managed to monetize," they haven't even TRIED. Very big difference.

> "they haven't even TRIED. Very big difference."

Oh yes, even less confidence-inspiring.

So what you mean to say is, we have here a company whose traffic has been bleeding off their monetized, desktop platform into the unmonetized, mobile platform that has existed for four years, and they still haven't done anything about it?

Are we still talking about FB? I swear this sounds more like RIM.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#140

under $29 now! How low will it go?

is there a point after which a decrease fulls itself ? I know nothing about stock market, first day drop might signals frailty or wrong pricing but won't stable negative continuity trigger a global resell reflex ?
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