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This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

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Re: This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

#91

Post by InclinedPlane »

ajross wrote: post #85
InclinedPlane wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Inexorably". Yes. Now, if we believed that any consistent trend over a period of about a decade would last forever, where would we all be? Buying multi-million dollar 2-bedroom homes in Detroit with our pets.com investment proceeds, I'd imagine.

Your point being what, that there's a speculative boom in petroleum prices? It's a finite resource with a growing demand. Seems like my argument requires less in the way of elaborate justification. I don't expect to convince you of anything. So: write it down. In 2012 you thought $4 gas was going to stop getting more expensive. In 2014 when it hits $5, you'll probably think similarly. At $10, maybe you're change your…

For most of the 90s gas was underpriced compared to historical levels. This was due to a variety of reasons, some technological, some economic, some geopolitical. Over the last decade or so gas has gone up in price though the price is still quite volatile. Short-term estimates are that gas prices probably won't go much higher. Longer-term estimates are tricky, but increasing production of crude oil and natural gas from North America will probably cause prices to fall.

The "finite resource" aspect is a bit of a misnomer. Yes, oil is finite, and it is used up. But what matters is how long can current rates of use be maintained. If it's only a decade then prices will definitely skyrocket, if it's more like a century then prices might not outpace inflation.

I could argue all day about technology and production but the best argument is the simplest one, more often than not the claim that "this time it's different" is seldom justified. What argument do you have that "this time it's different" in regard to cost and volume of oil production vs, say, the 1970s?

People like you have been arguing that we're going to run out of oil since the 1950s. They haven't been right yet.

Re: This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

#92

Post by katabatic »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #83

This is a non-starter. This fills the same niche as an electric moped at 6% or less of the cost. And people can drive electric mopeds on city streets legally today . For less than half the price someone could buy a used, low-mileage sedan (such as a Civic, Corolla, or Accent), with a trunk, seating for 5, seatbelts and airbags. And then use the other $8k to pay for gas at $5 a gallon for the next 48,000 miles. Or, th…

I don't really see this being comparable to a moped. A moped is like a teeny tiny motorcycle - it's an exposed 1 or (at best) two seater with barely any cargo capacity, no protection from the elements, and no crash protection. This should appeal to someone who wouldn't be comfortable on an exposed two wheeler in traffic.

And considering that 80% of trips taken in cars today have a single occupant, the "seating for 5" argument probably doesn't matter to plenty of people. Obviously, it always will for people with kids and dogs to transport, but there are enough people without those encumbrances to make up a very healthy market.

Re: This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

#93

Post by krschultz »

ajross wrote: post #70
mbenjaminsmith wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what future will the two transportation choices be motorcycles and covered motorcycles? On a more serious note, how is the current market unsustainable? Even if something as specious as "Peak Oil" were true, it's well within our power to move to another fuel source. And since when does fuel availability dictate personal vehicle design? If we can make any personal vehicle, certainly we can make one with four wheels…

At-the-pump gasoline prices have been moving steadily, inexorably upward for the past 13 years. It's not even news any more when we hit new record prices; it happens every summer. You really think that trend is going to halt any time soon? A median car in the USA is now less expensive than the fuel it will consume (and outside the USA, of course, fuel is a much greater fraction). You think that constraint won't "dica…

And people are stilling buying trucks that get 15mpg over Priuses that get 50mpg.

My current car gets 22-25mpg (older Subaru Forester) and it's hardly bigger than a Prius. I could cut my gas bill in half with that switch and lose almost no functionality and certainly no loss of safety.

And the way I look at it, I'd rather just not drive than drive something horribly unsafe.

Re: This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

#94

Post by cjensen »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #83

This is a non-starter. This fills the same niche as an electric moped at 6% or less of the cost. And people can drive electric mopeds on city streets legally today . For less than half the price someone could buy a used, low-mileage sedan (such as a Civic, Corolla, or Accent), with a trunk, seating for 5, seatbelts and airbags. And then use the other $8k to pay for gas at $5 a gallon for the next 48,000 miles. Or, th…

I'm just as skeptical as you, but...

Electric mopeds cannot go on freeways. An electric motorcycle is better for nontrivial distances.

On the other hand, an electric moped which cannot travel faster than 20mph also has an advantage: in California it is treated as a bicycle and can travel on bike paths on major bridges.

My main complaint: if neither electric motorcycles nor self-balancing motorcycles are currently popular, why would an electric self-balancing motorcycle be popular?

Re: This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

#95

Post by drobilla »

For half a century, especially in America, we've been hearing about the "future of transportation" in the form of some car, or car-like non-mass transit device.

The numbers don't work out, the logistics don't work out, and the infrastructure doesn't work out. The future of transit is obviously not cars: not normal 4 wheeled cars, not flying cars, not fancy gyro stabilized two wheeled cars.

Ideas otherwise are quaint turn of the century throwbacks that ceased making sense anywhere in non-rural a very long time ago.

Re: This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

#96

Post by katabatic »

studio816 wrote: post #89

I may have missed something, but how does it stay upright when parked? Is there a kick-stand of some sort?

There was a brief moment in the video where they pulled a support out from under it to demo the gyro-stabilization. Clearly, the rolling prototype doesn't have a kick-stand, but I would suspect some kind of auto-deploying twin-leg kickstand would be added for production. Something that deploys when you turn the ignition off, for example, since you wouldn't want those gyros running all the time just to keep it upright in storage.

Re: This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

#97

Post by InclinedPlane »

cjensen wrote: post #94
InclinedPlane wrote: post #83

This is a non-starter. This fills the same niche as an electric moped at 6% or less of the cost. And people can drive electric mopeds on city streets legally today . For less than half the price someone could buy a used, low-mileage sedan (such as a Civic, Corolla, or Accent), with a trunk, seating for 5, seatbelts and airbags. And then use the other $8k to pay for gas at $5 a gallon for the next 48,000 miles. Or, th…

I'm just as skeptical as you, but... Electric mopeds cannot go on freeways. An electric motorcycle is better for nontrivial distances. On the other hand, an electric moped which cannot travel faster than 20mph also has an advantage: in California it is treated as a bicycle and can travel on bike paths on major bridges. My main complaint: if neither electric motorcycles nor self-balancing motorcycles are currently pop…

Well, if you want a highway vehicle then you can buy an electric motorcycle for half or a quarter the cost of this thing (such as the Brammo Enertia or the EMC GPR-S).

Electric motorcycles seem to have some degree of minor popularity, but are certainly a tiny niche even compared to plug-in hybrid cars. But the value-add of a self-balancing motorcycle seems highly dubious.

Re: This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

#98

Post by Yxven »

cjensen wrote: post #94
InclinedPlane wrote: post #83

This is a non-starter. This fills the same niche as an electric moped at 6% or less of the cost. And people can drive electric mopeds on city streets legally today . For less than half the price someone could buy a used, low-mileage sedan (such as a Civic, Corolla, or Accent), with a trunk, seating for 5, seatbelts and airbags. And then use the other $8k to pay for gas at $5 a gallon for the next 48,000 miles. Or, th…

I'm just as skeptical as you, but... Electric mopeds cannot go on freeways. An electric motorcycle is better for nontrivial distances. On the other hand, an electric moped which cannot travel faster than 20mph also has an advantage: in California it is treated as a bicycle and can travel on bike paths on major bridges. My main complaint: if neither electric motorcycles nor self-balancing motorcycles are currently pop…

Personally, I've always wanted a vehicle with the speed and fuel efficiency approaching a motorcycle and a 5-star crash safety rating. Motorcycles are a death trap, and I refuse to ride one despite their many advantages.

Re: This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

#99

Post by cypherpunks01 »

Reminds me of a recumbent bicycle, which I was always bewildered by - I live in nyc and can never imagine riding around on one because I wouldn't be able to see anything except the backs of vehicles. I feel very comfortable bicycling and motorcycling around the city precisely because I can see very far ahead by being higher up than most cage drivers. I could see this gyro bike suffering from the same problem in the city, which is probably where it was designed for?

Re: This Is the Gyro-Stabilized, Two-Wheeled Future of Transportation

#100

Post by ajross »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #91
ajross wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your point being what, that there's a speculative boom in petroleum prices? It's a finite resource with a growing demand. Seems like my argument requires less in the way of elaborate justification. I don't expect to convince you of anything. So: write it down. In 2012 you thought $4 gas was going to stop getting more expensive. In 2014 when it hits $5, you'll probably think similarly. At $10, maybe you're change your…

For most of the 90s gas was underpriced compared to historical levels. This was due to a variety of reasons, some technological, some economic, some geopolitical. Over the last decade or so gas has gone up in price though the price is still quite volatile. Short-term estimates are that gas prices probably won't go much higher. Longer-term estimates are tricky, but increasing production of crude oil and natural gas fr…

You're strawmanning. I didn't say we were going to "run out" of oil, I said prices were headed upwards, had been for a long time now, and was showing no signs of reversing. And that we're at the point now where fuel costs are 1:1 with production costs of vehicles, and thus we're going to start seeing changes in vehicle designs at the low end to compensate.

I don't see a "this time it's different" anywhere, just an extrapolation of pretty clear evidence. I'm willing to listen to alternatives, like this one:

> Short-term estimates are that gas prices probably won't go much higher.

For which you conveniently fail to produce a cite. :)

(edit: and still haven't. The only link I found that matches your point is a Reuters story saying that prices are expected to be stable "this summer". So if a three-month window is your criteria for "short term" then I grant you that. And when the expected rise continues in the fall, you'll promise to change your mind?)

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