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Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

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Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#101
Facebook had been public for last few years. The shares were for sale, without a healthy look a the numbers. Going by the P/E ratio, it should go by Google's PE of 18 instead of 93. Event a healthy pop up on P/E to 48, the shares should be worth $15 or a FB valuation of no more than $30Billion.

By most optimistic estimate, it will be $20 by June End.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#103
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical that FB would be higher today if it had IPOd lower.

It would be higher relative to the IPO price . Among other things, this means that employee options would still be above water. Rather more motivating than underwater options after years of death-march hours.

[deleted]

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#105
post #40

There are only two parties hurt by this: 1. The premiere clients of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who bought into the lie that FB should trade at >100:1 P/E; and 2. Facebook. (1) I don't care about. (2) is the interesting one. You'll note that I don't include the employees in the list of injured parties. They're largely in a lockout anyway (I assume?). Whether it opens at $38 and drops to $30 or starts at $20 and…

I would add:

2(a). The Instagram team

700M of the 1B acquisition was stock. Assuming they didn't sell it yet, that's a good amount of money lost.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#106
post #40

There are only two parties hurt by this: 1. The premiere clients of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who bought into the lie that FB should trade at >100:1 P/E; and 2. Facebook. (1) I don't care about. (2) is the interesting one. You'll note that I don't include the employees in the list of injured parties. They're largely in a lockout anyway (I assume?). Whether it opens at $38 and drops to $30 or starts at $20 and…

I think Hacker News should be renamed Facebook news.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you wanted to value it at $25-$50B, the share price would accordingly be $12-$24. Remember market cap = total shares * price. :)

You assume that the number of shares being offered was static, hence the price drop by half. More realistically, Facebook should have sold less shares, which would have kept the price at that target. But I guess it couldn't sell less: they had a bucketload of people who wanted to sell, and all the biggest potential buyers had already bought... Lesson learned: don't get talked into secondary market abuse...

Maybe I've had too much coffee so I'm not understanding your comment, but market cap is based on total outstanding shares, whether they were being sold on the market or not. 10 stocks issued total, company's value doesn't inherently change based on whether 5 stocks are sold in public vs 10 vs 1.

Sure I get the supply and demand thing you're trying to articulate, but the reality is that I as an investor am concerned that FB is overvalued at 100B marketcap, whether the shares are sold at $1 or $10000.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#108

Wanna see something cool? Put FB and ZNGA side by side on the graph: http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&...

I always do that when there's a post about facebook stock and it's quite entertaining to seem those two go side by side on the up-down roller coaster.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#109
post #31
post #14

Morgan Stanley has been putting in floors to keep this stock from totally crashing. They cannot keep it up forever.

Do you have proof? I know that on opening Friday we saw it sit at $38.00 and that was obviously MS, but since then I don't see any evidence in the stock price that this has happened since. On the 23rd the stock traded at 31.53 a few times but later in the day traded at 31.52. I'd love to see MS take a beating for that 100m they got for underwriting this poorly orchestrated IPO, I just haven't been able to see it happ…

NO I don't have any proof. If wall street left lots of proof in their wake, people would have gone to jail during the housing crash. Maybe I'm wrong, Maybe the stock randomly hit 34,32,30,29 and plateaued because normal investors put in orders for those prices.

Re: Facebook trades under $30, down 7%+

#110
post #40

There are only two parties hurt by this: 1. The premiere clients of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who bought into the lie that FB should trade at >100:1 P/E; and 2. Facebook. (1) I don't care about. (2) is the interesting one. You'll note that I don't include the employees in the list of injured parties. They're largely in a lockout anyway (I assume?). Whether it opens at $38 and drops to $30 or starts at $20 and…

Can anyone explain to me how the P/E ratio is a meaningful metric for a company's stock price and what it "should be" at when that company does not distribute earnings to the shareholders?

I don't understand why this metric is tossed around for stocks in which the regular shareholders receive no compensation for the shares owned (nor have any voting power for that matter). Owning stock in these companies seems like a pure speculation move, as the only upside to be seen in purchasing shares is that one day other people will value the share higher than the day you bought it.

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