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Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

investors.squarespace.com

101–110 of 414 posts

Re: Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

#101
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to pay enough to convince everyone to sell. The trading price is the marginal price of buying one more unit of stock, not a representation of the stock price at which every owner will sell.

That explains why there's a premium but not why the premium is ~30%.

it has to be high enough to give the board enough cover that they're doing their fiduciary duty to existing shareholders

Re: Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

#102
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something is really wrong in this market when even a "successful" company like Squarespace deson't manage to be a profitable business.

If you look at the past 10 years (or more) this has been the case with nearly every single poster child of successful US tech company. Look at YCombinator's top/most darling startups. Hardly any of them are profitable or sustainably profitable

My old fashioned view is, and notwithstanding periods of debt for grow investment, if you don't make a profit, you don't have a business.

Re: Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

#103
post #39

This makes the Google registrar change even worse. I need to get my act together and transfer my .dev domain. :/

Yeah what an annoying one two punch. I was going to transfer everything to cloudflare but apparently cloudflare can't handle .dev domains.

Re: Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

#104
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other replies explain the 30% with circular reasoning and I don’t find them convincing, so here’s a more absolute and testable hypothesis: at the average rate of S&P500 return adjusted for inflation, 30% is about 3-5 years of investment. What if that’s the average period of investment (i.e. time between buy and sell) for a typical retail investor for any given stock? If that’s the case, 30% is the minimum premium…

I thought about that too, but realized that it is double counting the returns. If you look at the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method for valuing the company, the current value of the company is already the sum of the discounted cash flows from the future. i.e. the next 3-5 year returns are already priced into the pre 30% hike value.

DCF and other tools to value companies make sense when the valuation is somewhat stable, but the real world often isn't. MSFT was worth $1T a few years ago because the world presumably expected $1T in profits over the lifetime of the company. But OpenAI came around and suddenly they're worth $2T. It wasn't because their lifetime doubled, it was because most people perceive AI as a major advancement. I believe this is the primary thrust behind the S&P500's 7-10% annualised returns in the last 20 years because most of the gains have come from the top.

Re: Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

#105
post #92

It must be nice for the founder to pocket $2 billion in cash from selling his company. For users, on the other hand, I'll hardly trust a PE firm with a SaaS product. There's just too much incentive to jack up prices to service the debt taken to acquire Squarespace, and cut costs on customer support and building new features.

It's true that PE firms cannot be trusted with a SaaS product. It is also true that most SaaS companies are not profitable for the service they provide at the revenue they derive. This reset, which we will see a lot of since the entire SaaS category has to be re-priced, is the scalable way to clean up companies (why are SaaS employees paid so much?, why are customers paying so little etc..) and put them on a sustaina…

If there is $300M revenue and no profit, lay off the half of the staff and you get $150M profit in a SaaS company. The Musk recipe.

Re: Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

#106
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As much as I'd like to see a web 1.0 revival, this won't happen. The traffic is controlled by Google and social networks. Most people don't have the skills needed to run their own website. A lot of valuable content is created by people without these sorts of skills.

That's a function of technology. It would absolutely be possible to integrate something like Nextcloud into operating systems or devices. It will never happen, because every party in a position to do such an integration is also in a position to become a middleman and extract money, which is much more profitable.

I'm curious what an integration would look like. Are you thinking Google Play Services but Nextcloud Services instead?

Re: Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As of December 31, 2021, the Reporting Person’s beneficial ownership consists of: (i) 387,500 shares of Class A Common Stock and 2,050,838 shares of Class B common stock, $0.0001 par value per share (“Class B Common Stock”) held directly by the Anthony Casalena 2019 Family Trust, for which the Reporting Person is the trustee, and > (ii) 4,930,175 shares of Class A Common Stock and 40,835,572 shares of Class B Commo…

Thanks, I assumed all holdings would have been reported on Form 3 and 4 under the beneficially owned section.

Yeah, SEC filings are complicated. It's taken me years of experience to understand them.

Re: Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

#108
post #12

It is interesting how most M&A transactions trend to have a 30% premium above the trading price. I have tried to investigate why but could not find a good explanation to why this number is so prevalent.

There is a baseline trading volume that still expects to have access to the stock. As you buy more stock, less stock is available to buy, driving up the price.

This is not the case because these deals are done privately to the board. Once an investor cross the 5% mark they have to file and companies may adopt a poison bill without the boards blessing.

Re: Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

#109
post #39

This makes the Google registrar change even worse. I need to get my act together and transfer my .dev domain. :/

I'm in the same position. Looks like Cloudflare got all my billing info correct, so everything should keep on working.

That being said, the second Permira increases the prices of a single domain name I own, I'm moving my domains to somewhere else.

Re: Squarespace to Go Private in $6.9B All-Cash Transaction with Permira

#110
post #29
post #4

how odd, all my google domains just transferred to squarespace today. now thru no consent of my own all my domain and payment information are belong to this private equity shop i dont know anything about that is also likely to strip it for parts. idk how to feel about that

It was announced in mid-2023, and google sent out numerous emails to account holders over the last six months. https://support.google.com/domains/answer/13689670?hl=en Feel free to migrate your domains somewhere else. I chose CloudFlare

Many domains didn't actually transfer to squarespace until very recently. Mine all finished transferring last week (it's probably a coincidence though)
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