- The Polish spy chief is warning that Russia intends to invade a NATO state in the near future [0]
- Poland is strengthening its border with Belarus [1]
- Germany is considering conscripting all 18 year olds in the face of what it perceives as Russian aggression [2]
- Russia warns of "enormous danger" if NATO troops are sent to Ukraine [3]
- Russia threatens to use "special ammunition" against NATO [4]
Headlines were starting to read like this immediately before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We saw troop buildups and threats for a while before any action was taken.
Amidst all this, there's a sudden push to move people off of Signal and onto the Russian-developed Telegram, which is widely regarded as less secure and is even not encrypted by default.
Telegram now operates out of the UAE, which has long been a partner with Russia. Wikipedia has this to say about the strengthening of UAE-Russia relations since the invasion of Ukraine:
> trade between the two nations strengthened with many Russians relocating to the UAE to invest in real estate, business, or "escape financial restrictions in Europe". Trade between the two countries has doubled to $5 billion since 2020 and there are approximately 4,000 companies with Russian roots that are operating within the country.
So, my take here is that this push toward telegram smells pretty bad given the timing. Telegram has always had kind of a smell about it, given that it rolled its own crypto and given Durov's involvement with the VK social network which was, in Durov's POV (again according to Wikipedia), taken over by Putin's faction.
Personally, I like Signal. I have some of the same concerns folks here have brought up. But it's been well vetted by experts and is highly regarded by people I trust. That doesn't mean you have to like Signal. Its crypto improvements have been spread to other apps, and many people are probably just fine using something like iMessage.
And while I don't know anything about Durov or his motives, I have yet to see any successful cryptography app anywhere in the world that didn't eventually have to compromise with a government. And Russia seems especially good at applying pressure, with a history of institutional tips and tricks that go back at least to the Soviet secret police, and possibly even further back to the Tsars.
As much as I think we can't objectively trust the US government in all matters, I think we can generally trust the cryptography experts. They tend to be skeptical of all governments when it comes to cryptography, even in democracies.
So that's my two cents. I wouldn't switch from Signal to Telegram. If you're on Telegram and you have especially interesting activity (like you fight in a war), then you should probably assume that Russia can see everything you're doing. That may change if Telegram gets the sort of robust cryptographic scrutiny Signal has. If you're not warring, you're not doing exotic fancy crimes, and you live in a democracy, you're probably fine with either app but possibly a little better off with Signal or iMessage.
[0] https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ready-launch-offensive-nato-...
[1] https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/poland-streng...
[2] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/11/germany-co...
[3] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/11/germany-co...
[4] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/form...