Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are clearly not a dimwit, and you don’t only have way more experience than most people here, you also have some amazing projects under your belt. However I can’t help but notice that the vast majority of blogposts, talks, tweets, and basically everything else you do now is around LLMs. Do you not think that’s indicative of this being “hyped” and “shiny tools”?
If hype just means people are excited about it and talking about it, it should be a positive signal about the merit of the thing. I think people get the wrong idea by measuring P(X is good | people are excited about X) and finding it to be low. But P(X is good | people are not excited about X) is vastly lower, and 'hype' as here used is not really discrediting.
Only if you're including things that don't exist. If you restrict yourself to things that people might conceivably talk about, that probability is actually very high, for the simple reason that bad things are exciting specifically because they are bad.
Here are some boring things:
- bread
- sunlight
- air
- water
- parents
Note that starvation, darkness, suffocation, dehydration, and being orphaned are all much more exciting than their opposites.