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Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

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Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#31

Post by GeoAtreides »

gmerc wrote: post #30
GeoAtreides wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. A larger population means bigger numbers on the everything that's on a normal distribution, like intelligence. That one genius in a 100 million? With 1B population, you only have 10 of them. With 8B population, there are 80. That's 8x more chances one of them does or finds something revolutionary, 8x chances that person is not perishing…

Chances are the Genius will never get to actually do anything. It’s not like we select for Geniuses in roles that have power

and that's exactly the thing with having a bigger population: more geniuses, more chances one of them actually fulfils their potential.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#32

Post by nailer »

michaelhoney wrote: post #14

"the whole world": - economists & businesspeople who can't conceive of a world without growth - religious people who think God wants them to be fruitful and multiply - atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative - parents who think that being childfree is an affront to their choices

I’m not sure if I should dignify this with the response, but part of caring for old people is having enough young people to do it.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#33

Post by Ekaros »

zelos wrote: post #26
gattilorenz wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An aging population that lives longer and longer + shrinking workforce means - the pension system can't be sustained, but also - more and more people need support of doctors, nurses, care homes, etc. but can't find it or it becomes more and more expensive (but see problem above regarding their pensions). Historically children take care of their parents when they are old and in need; in the past century more and more…

There has to be a system where pensions and elderly care can be sustained at replacement birth rates, doesn't there? Otherwise we're in real trouble.

It is also question of what level of care and investment to elderly is accepted. Many of us want to live as long as possible, but maybe there needs to be some qualitative cut off. Age and situation this happens varies but at some point society can't pay things like life support forever...

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#34

Post by javcasas »

GeoAtreides wrote: post #16
anonzzzies wrote: post #3

Besides feeding the economy (and by that, I mean buying consumerist stuff from large corps) and providing the army with cannon fodder, I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. Humanity would shrink (I think this is calculated to start after 2050 or so), but besides those two reasons, does that matter? Where is the foundation of the argument that we must have population growth to…

> I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. A larger population means bigger numbers on the everything that's on a normal distribution, like intelligence. That one genius in a 100 million? With 1B population, you only have 10 of them. With 8B population, there are 80. That's 8x more chances one of them does or finds something revolutionary, 8x chances that person is not perishing…

Your generation's genius is currently wasting his life on a 12 hour minimum wage job to barely pay the rent on his shitty old tiny flat. He will not have the brainspace and time left to invent hyperspace interplanetary travelling.

Fix the former first if you want the latter to happen.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#35

Post by atoav »

gizmo wrote: post #29
michaelhoney wrote: post #14

"the whole world": - economists & businesspeople who can't conceive of a world without growth - religious people who think God wants them to be fruitful and multiply - atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative - parents who think that being childfree is an affront to their choices

The economists are worried because (retirement) savings are nothing more than a claim on future labor. As people grow older and are less capable of taking care of themselves other people need to care for them. People can be secure in their retirement when the number they have saved is sufficient to purchase the labor they need later in life. But what will the price of that labor be when birth rates collapse and there…

The fact is that my parents generation (currently retiring) made a bet on the younger generations supporting them through the retirement [insert socialism joke if you're from the US]. I never signed up to this tho, I have been born into it. Now I agree that the whole thing is in principle a good idea, but all fairness goes out of the window as soon as a your demographics are such that the biggest voting block is at the same time not working. So a class of old politicians constantly keeps putting off needed changes in the way retirement works, a price for which younger generations have to pay. The same happens in infrastructure, climate change etc.

At some point my generation will have to question the validity of that social contract.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#36

Post by silverquiet »

gizmo wrote: post #29
michaelhoney wrote: post #14

"the whole world": - economists & businesspeople who can't conceive of a world without growth - religious people who think God wants them to be fruitful and multiply - atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative - parents who think that being childfree is an affront to their choices

The economists are worried because (retirement) savings are nothing more than a claim on future labor. As people grow older and are less capable of taking care of themselves other people need to care for them. People can be secure in their retirement when the number they have saved is sufficient to purchase the labor they need later in life. But what will the price of that labor be when birth rates collapse and there…

First, I'd say that if those politicians are so worried, then perhaps they should work on building societies that people actually want to bring children into.

Mainly though, I wonder - where is all the extra productivity that has supposedly developed over the last half century or so? Shouldn't that be able to cover over a declining population?

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#37

Post by johngladtj »

zelos wrote: post #26
gattilorenz wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An aging population that lives longer and longer + shrinking workforce means - the pension system can't be sustained, but also - more and more people need support of doctors, nurses, care homes, etc. but can't find it or it becomes more and more expensive (but see problem above regarding their pensions). Historically children take care of their parents when they are old and in need; in the past century more and more…

There has to be a system where pensions and elderly care can be sustained at replacement birth rates, doesn't there? Otherwise we're in real trouble.

Sure, that is not this system though.

If you'd like to implement it you're welcome to go tell your largest voting bloc that your primary objective is to almost completely remove their entitlements and leave them to starve to death. Who knows, maybe after they are finished lynching you you might get elected.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#38

Post by eppp »

nailer wrote: post #32
michaelhoney wrote: post #14

"the whole world": - economists & businesspeople who can't conceive of a world without growth - religious people who think God wants them to be fruitful and multiply - atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative - parents who think that being childfree is an affront to their choices

I’m not sure if I should dignify this with the response, but part of caring for old people is having enough young people to do it.

Because old people exist it is now the duty of the unborn to care for them? That is so sad.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#39

Post by sadhorse »

GeoAtreides wrote: post #16
anonzzzies wrote: post #3

Besides feeding the economy (and by that, I mean buying consumerist stuff from large corps) and providing the army with cannon fodder, I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. Humanity would shrink (I think this is calculated to start after 2050 or so), but besides those two reasons, does that matter? Where is the foundation of the argument that we must have population growth to…

> I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. A larger population means bigger numbers on the everything that's on a normal distribution, like intelligence. That one genius in a 100 million? With 1B population, you only have 10 of them. With 8B population, there are 80. That's 8x more chances one of them does or finds something revolutionary, 8x chances that person is not perishing…

Psychopathy is also on a normal distribution... this "big numbers" argument is very weak. We all know what the masses like to do with the environment.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#40

Post by Havoc »

silverquiet wrote: post #27
Havoc wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative Procreation kinda is an evolutionary imperative- atheism or not

I'm not super thrilled about being compelled by evolution or a god.

Neither am I but evolution doesn’t seem inclined to engage in philosophical discussions
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