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Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

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Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#21

Post by Arnt »

anonzzzies wrote: post #3

Besides feeding the economy (and by that, I mean buying consumerist stuff from large corps) and providing the army with cannon fodder, I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. Humanity would shrink (I think this is calculated to start after 2050 or so), but besides those two reasons, does that matter? Where is the foundation of the argument that we must have population growth to…

The change is a problem.

If you expect x plumbers to be needed in year y and x/2 not many years later (within the span of a plumber's working life), how many should choose to become plumbers in each year? How about buildings and other infrastructure with long lifetimes?

Rapid change makes those things difficult. Don't want random home owners to have to speculate on that, and for some of them to lose their shirts when the population is too low to find a buyer for their home.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#22

Post by atonse »

michaelhoney wrote: post #14

"the whole world": - economists & businesspeople who can't conceive of a world without growth - religious people who think God wants them to be fruitful and multiply - atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative - parents who think that being childfree is an affront to their choices

wow, that’s really quite reductive.

It sounds more like this might be a choice you feel strongly about but are projecting selfishness on to others?

This can be a totally fine choice for someone to make personally (which I support), but also not good for society as a whole. Both things can objectively be true.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#23

Post by atonse »

anonzzzies wrote: post #3

Besides feeding the economy (and by that, I mean buying consumerist stuff from large corps) and providing the army with cannon fodder, I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. Humanity would shrink (I think this is calculated to start after 2050 or so), but besides those two reasons, does that matter? Where is the foundation of the argument that we must have population growth to…

It doesn’t have to be growth vs reduction. It can be slower growth or let’s stay close to replacement rates?

Others have listed why this will be bad.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#24

Post by Havoc »

michaelhoney wrote: post #14

"the whole world": - economists & businesspeople who can't conceive of a world without growth - religious people who think God wants them to be fruitful and multiply - atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative - parents who think that being childfree is an affront to their choices

> atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative

Procreation kinda is an evolutionary imperative- atheism or not

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#25

Post by CogitoCogito »

atonse wrote: post #22
michaelhoney wrote: post #14

"the whole world": - economists & businesspeople who can't conceive of a world without growth - religious people who think God wants them to be fruitful and multiply - atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative - parents who think that being childfree is an affront to their choices

wow, that’s really quite reductive. It sounds more like this might be a choice you feel strongly about but are projecting selfishness on to others? This can be a totally fine choice for someone to make personally (which I support), but also not good for society as a whole. Both things can objectively be true.

Are you saying it's selfish to not have kids? Other than accidental parents, I've never met any who didn't have kids because they wanted them. How were they not acting selfishly?

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#26

Post by zelos »

gattilorenz wrote: post #13
anonzzzies wrote: post #3

Besides feeding the economy (and by that, I mean buying consumerist stuff from large corps) and providing the army with cannon fodder, I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. Humanity would shrink (I think this is calculated to start after 2050 or so), but besides those two reasons, does that matter? Where is the foundation of the argument that we must have population growth to…

An aging population that lives longer and longer + shrinking workforce means - the pension system can't be sustained, but also - more and more people need support of doctors, nurses, care homes, etc. but can't find it or it becomes more and more expensive (but see problem above regarding their pensions). Historically children take care of their parents when they are old and in need; in the past century more and more…

There has to be a system where pensions and elderly care can be sustained at replacement birth rates, doesn't there? Otherwise we're in real trouble.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#27

Post by silverquiet »

Havoc wrote: post #24
michaelhoney wrote: post #14

"the whole world": - economists & businesspeople who can't conceive of a world without growth - religious people who think God wants them to be fruitful and multiply - atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative - parents who think that being childfree is an affront to their choices

> atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative Procreation kinda is an evolutionary imperative- atheism or not

I'm not super thrilled about being compelled by evolution or a god.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#28

Post by CogitoCogito »

Arnt wrote: post #21
anonzzzies wrote: post #3

Besides feeding the economy (and by that, I mean buying consumerist stuff from large corps) and providing the army with cannon fodder, I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. Humanity would shrink (I think this is calculated to start after 2050 or so), but besides those two reasons, does that matter? Where is the foundation of the argument that we must have population growth to…

The change is a problem. If you expect x plumbers to be needed in year y and x/2 not many years later (within the span of a plumber's working life), how many should choose to become plumbers in each year? How about buildings and other infrastructure with long lifetimes? Rapid change makes those things difficult. Don't want random home owners to have to speculate on that, and for some of them to lose their shirts when…

How haven't these problems _always_ existed? What do they have to do with drop in overall population? If change is the problem, then both population growth and movement of populations are already problems and always have been.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#29

Post by gizmo »

michaelhoney wrote: post #14

"the whole world": - economists & businesspeople who can't conceive of a world without growth - religious people who think God wants them to be fruitful and multiply - atheists who think we have some kind of evolutionary imperative - parents who think that being childfree is an affront to their choices

The economists are worried because (retirement) savings are nothing more than a claim on future labor. As people grow older and are less capable of taking care of themselves other people need to care for them. People can be secure in their retirement when the number they have saved is sufficient to purchase the labor they need later in life.

But what will the price of that labor be when birth rates collapse and there aren't sufficient people around to do this labor? Retirement savings mean nothing when the people needed to do the work are not available. For wealthy western countries immigration is the only realistic solution address the shortage of working-age people. It's not a silver bullet, though. Immigration scares people and populist politicians will exploit this fear of change.

We should also remember that politicians in rich countries are very old. They care a great deal about anything that affects their own retirement. To young people who don't have high expectations for their quality of life in their last couple of decades on earth this panic about demographic change may seem silly. But baby boomers care and they are the ones making policy.

Re: Suddenly There Aren't Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed

#30

Post by gmerc »

GeoAtreides wrote: post #16
anonzzzies wrote: post #3

Besides feeding the economy (and by that, I mean buying consumerist stuff from large corps) and providing the army with cannon fodder, I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. Humanity would shrink (I think this is calculated to start after 2050 or so), but besides those two reasons, does that matter? Where is the foundation of the argument that we must have population growth to…

> I still haven’t haven’t heard a lot of good arguments for having these babies. A larger population means bigger numbers on the everything that's on a normal distribution, like intelligence. That one genius in a 100 million? With 1B population, you only have 10 of them. With 8B population, there are 80. That's 8x more chances one of them does or finds something revolutionary, 8x chances that person is not perishing…

Chances are the Genius will never get to actually do anything. It’s not like we select for Geniuses in roles that have power
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