It is incredible that you can replace 90% of upwork/fiverr/juniors(and many seniors for that matter) with a $20/mo tool for doing the most common work like api integrations and frontend work (both of which I find the most boring work outside the non programming like devops and, worse, fighting tools and versions because of useless updates).
> It definitely hits a wall when I am working on something sufficiently esoteric.
So do humans. Hiring humans to do that work well is hard and expensive, so it’s not strange that is harder for LLMs as well.
I am not sure that finding things LLMs are shite at makes them less productive for most things programmers are doing during the day, which is quite boring stuff. In my reality, which, before mid last year, had 100s of people (across clients I work with, not my company) doing integrations and frontend work, now fired most of these and focused more on optimising the pipeline for copilot, chatgpt and opus.
My friend who runs an outsourcing operation in India almost went out of business mid last year when he saw his EU clients cancelling all his contracts because his people could be replaced by openai; he pivoted by having his people use ai, do ai projects and becoming more (everyone already was that but it was more heavy on the coding) business analyst heavy. He fired no one and is doing better than before now, but he doesn’t hire ‘programmers’ anymore.