Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also good at response. Ozone situation was fixed and now we actually track the asteroids.
We neither have a plan to fix the existing ozone hole and nor do we have a way for preventing an asteroid collision (assuming we are lucky enough that the theoretical asteroid that hits us is one of the subset of asteroids we can actually track) So no, neither of those problems are even remotely fixed. We’ve just done the bare minimum to check the “we’ve reacted to a crisis” box.
Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs
381–390 of 418 posts
Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs
#382Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs
#383"The Threat of a Solar Superstorm Is Growing—And We’re Not Ready" https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-threat-of-a-s... Discussed in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40196820
Humanity is good in sweeping problems under the rug and not preparing to various threats.
Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs
#384Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not good. PJM has a plan. Geo-Magnetic Disturbance (GMD) Operating Plan (EOP-010-1)[1] Usage of some specific transmission lines has to be kept below certain values. Right now, this is a low-load period late at night without bad weather, so there are no additional actions ordered. The system load is probably within the more restrictive limits just because it's late night. If problems develop, you'll see more actions…
Weather has been good today in the region - low heating and cooling load, and it's a weekend; demand is comfortably low (currently about 72.5GW with a forecasted peak of 77, vs an actual peak of 85GW yesterday). Should keep things pretty boring across PJM. It's a good thing this didn't happen in July/August. (For folks around here, the pjm now app is a nice way to grab current power demand/tie flows/alerts)
K-index is at 8.67 right now, down from 9. (9 is currently the maximum reportable K value.)
Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs
#385Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, the fact people can have different opinions is a richness. The point of political activity is to align these opinions.
Yes, opinions about which foods people prefer. Not “opinions” on the factuality of scientific knowledge (which is a large part of what feeds into discord at the political level— avoidably so).
For example things such as:
-should universities be state subsidised or should there be tuition.
-If state needs to raise more taxes what type of tax should they increase; sales tax or income tax.
- should there be a tobacco tax or should tobacco be made illegal
- should cocaine be legalized
Etc etc mundane things.
This is not unrelated to all other things - these all are political issues. There is no ”lane b” for matters of urgency unless there is an imminent disaster looming. All matters need to churn through the same machine - sales tax incease of 0.1 % as well as specific environmental matters.
The biggest villain here is not humnanity. It’s the hydrocarbon companies and families (Koch!) that have fucked up the political dialogue by first seeding ”skepticism” and then making a matter scientific urgency a political negotiable thing.
The machine is what it is, and it’s capable of doing great things. Some fucktards have just intentionally loosened a few gears and somebody would need to fix the mess.
Now, one must point out that the fossil fuels burned have not just disappeared as smoke in the air. We’ve used them to keep the wheels of civilization spinning and in a way it’s not just folks like Koch that have profited but we all have profited from fossil fuel based world order (see for example ’How the world really works’ by Smil). So, in a way all consumers in the industrial world have been benefitted materially - which also explains why there are so many vested interests not too keen to energetically debunk the ”climate skeptics”. Yeah. Everything I own I own mostly because of cheap industrial goods and food in whose production fossil fuels have played an important part.
So it’s not a simple thing to fix. But it’s all down to the same machine.
Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs
#386Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is no worry with electronics and Carrington Event or high-altitude EMP. The wavelengths are too long and electronics are too small. The main risk is induced current in long wires. I read article recently that long-distance fiber optic cables are vulnerable even under the sea. My understanding is that it is fairly easy to protect the electrical grid from solar storms. It requires adding grounding at all of the v…
As you say, carrington events are likely only to damage grids - however miyake events are so intense that cosmic rays penetrate deep into the atmosphere, and cosmic rays can cause electronics to have a very bad time indeed.
Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs
#387Earlier quoted context omitted.
CMEs do not directly affect electronics. Charged particles simply do not reach the surface. They instead distort the geomagnetic field, and the changing magnetic field induces voltage. But the Earth's magnetic field is pretty weak, so the voltage becomes significant only for very large circuits. Such as transmission lines or old-style telegraph lines.
This is a misconception. The geomagnetic disruption temporarily weakens the earth's magnetic field effectively allowing more charged particles to penetrate the upper atmosphere, and even right down to surface. This upper atmosphere penetration is what causes auroras in fact: the charged solar particles imparting energy to atmospheric gases and compounds through impact, that they re-emit that energy as beautiful light…
Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs
#388Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of tired of hearing this. Citing one initiative from 50 years ago is the definition of cherry picking, I'm sorry. The trend is that humans are incapable of long term global initiatives. I'm sure some game theory guy could prove it.
We also solved Peak Oil, Acid Rain and saved the whales.
Is PFAS rain that much better than acid rain? Rainwater is no longer safe to drink anywhere on Earth.
As for the whales, that's nice they got a reprive... But we're still extinctifying species at 100-1,000x the background rate.
And the people responsible for all of this are not strung up, nor even imprisoned. They're fucking around on mega-yachts and private planes (environmental atrocities in themselves).
Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs
#389While the photos of the auroras which have been circulating are certainly impressive, this has got me thinking about the Carrington Event [1], as well as a possible future event of equal or greater magnitude. I'm not an electronics expert, but I'm guessing that the reason we're so vulnerable to such an event today is because our infrastructure was originally built without such an event in mind, and now the upgrade co…
There is no worry with electronics and Carrington Event or high-altitude EMP. The wavelengths are too long and electronics are too small. The main risk is induced current in long wires. I read article recently that long-distance fiber optic cables are vulnerable even under the sea. My understanding is that it is fairly easy to protect the electrical grid from solar storms. It requires adding grounding at all of the v…
> There is no worry with electronics ... high-altitude EMP. The wavelengths are too long and electronics are too small.
This is true for the E3 (second-scale) pulse and CMEs, but the E1 (nanosecond-scale) and E2 (millisecond-scale) EMP pulses are broadband and can indeed damage small electronics.Re: Coronal mass ejection impact imminent, two more earth-directed CMEs
#390Earlier quoted context omitted.
We neither have a plan to fix the existing ozone hole and nor do we have a way for preventing an asteroid collision (assuming we are lucky enough that the theoretical asteroid that hits us is one of the subset of asteroids we can actually track) So no, neither of those problems are even remotely fixed. We’ve just done the bare minimum to check the “we’ve reacted to a crisis” box.
We do have a way of redirecting an asteroid. The problem is that we won't learn about it early enough for our current level of technology to do anything about it. We'd need 2 fully-operational Starship launches or 4 SLS launches or 10 Delta IV Heavy launches with 25 years notice to redirect an asteroid like Bennu. Now obviously 2 is better than 4 is better than 10. But the 25 years notice is a big problem. The moment…
Imagine humanity being forced to react to an impending impact, say within a few years, from a newly detected 1km+ asteroid, never mind something like the colossal Chicxulub impactor.