271–280 of 418 posts
The K-index for this is an 8 which is one less than an extreme G5 geomagnetic storm ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index ). I haven't been able to find it, so I'm curious what the Carrington event K-index was?
SWPC is now showing this storm as a G5 with a K-index of 9: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
That puts us .2 (logarithmically) under the known upper bound for the Carrington event (from above in the thread)
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Minor update: the warning has been extended another 16 hours, but downgraded from K8 to K7.
PJIM is at 'Action' now: ' A Geomagnetic Disturbance Action has been issued as of 22:15 on 05.10.2024 to protect the power system from damage or disruptions due to increased geomagnetic activity.'
PJM has a plan. Geo-Magnetic Disturbance (GMD) Operating Plan (EOP-010-1)[1] Usage of some specific transmission lines has to be kept below certain values. Right now, this is a low-load period late at night without bad weather, so there are no additional actions ordered. The system load is probably within the more restrictive limits just because it's late night. If problems develop, you'll see more actions in there. Watch morning load take-up tomorrow.
There's a press release, too.[2]
If you really want to understand this, start at page 32 of this training PowerPoint.[3] In 1989, PJM had a blackout because of this, and that's thoroughly discussed in the training materials. Geography matters. PJM has transmission lines running in the same direction as a mountain range with igneous rock. So "ground" isn't as conductive as is desirable. During a geomagnetic disturbance event, ground voltage at different points can differ. This causes problems with wye-wound transformers grounded at the center of the wye. They get some induced DC current, which can partially saturate the magnetics and heat up transformers.
There's a control room running this in Valley Forge, PA. (And a second control room in an undisclosed location.)
(Incidentally, this has absolutely nothing to do with electromagnetic pulse problems. EMP has a rise time of nanoseconds. GMD has a rise time in minutes. Unless you have a really long wire (many kilometers) with a potential to ground, this doesn't affect much.)
[1] https://pjm.com/directory/manuals/m13/index.html#Sections/38...
[2] https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-issues-geomagnetic-disturban...
[3] https://www.pjm.com/-/media/training/nerc-certifications/tra...
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Nothing consequential for a single flight. Even crew really don't have to worry about it until it gets to very high levels, according to the NOAA scales
Do you have a source for this? My friend was asking about this.
Although it could also disrupt satellite communication causing some delays in flight planning and aircraft/crew turnaround.
For a fun anecdote, when the HF radio fault was reported we weren't aware of the troubles in the ionosphere. After a few hours of troubleshooting on the system and not finding any problems I flippantly remarked that it must've been a solar flare because the radios perfect. 15 minutes later I was reading the news and saw the headline.
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Now I’ve volunteered with a local FNB group so I’m not trying to be mean but… What would a group that gets cheap and or throwaway groceries and feeds homeless do in a Fit-Hits-The-Shan or End-of-World scenario? You’d have to hope some heavily agricultural minded types would be friendly to you and your labor potential.
I'm not sure if you've read some of FNB's materials they set out at those events, but they should have reading out that defines the mission clearly as one not of charity, but of teaching people to be interdependent within their communities rather than on central governments. FNB is above all else a peaceful anarchist resistance movement. Primarily volunteering with them creates two things that are basically the most…
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Humanity is good in sweeping problems under the rug and not preparing to various threats.
resources are limited. You cannot prepare for all the threats in the world.
Is there any danger of people flying in planes during this time? Will there be any radiation exposure?
Boeing: "When you fly our planes, you agree that Coronal Mass Ejections may occur at any time and we are not liable for sudden door losses"
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Because citizens aren't expected to need to know the scale. They are only expected to follow the guidance their governments issue.
I like the response, seems very astute of an observation. Interpreting this in the worse light possible… in other words, gate keeping. I think a lot more people could understand and be mature in a lot more things if artificial and archaic barriers weren’t erected. I think not trusting the public is a recipe for an obscure elite ruling class. Sure, not a whole lot of people will get it but at least be open about it. T…