Earlier quoted context omitted.
Consider that humans also learn from other humans, and sometimes surpass their teachers. A bit more comfortable?
Ahh, but the new young master is able to explain their work and processes to the satisfaction of the old masters. In the 'Science' of our modern times it's a requirement to show your work (yes, yes, I know about the replication crisis and all that terrible jazz). Not being able to ascertain how and why the ML/AI is achieving results is not quite the same and more akin to the alchemists and sorcerers with their cypher…
AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
341–350 of 504 posts
Re: AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
#342> Thrilled to announce AlphaFold 3 which can predict the structures and interactions of nearly all of life’s molecules with state-of-the-art accuracy including proteins, DNA and RNA. [1] There's a slight mismatch between the blog's title and Demis Hassabis' tweet, where he uses "nearly all". The blog's title suggests that it's a 100% solved problem. [1] https://twitter.com/demishassabis/status/1788229162563420560
Re: AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
#343Stepping back, the high-order bit here is an ML method is beating physically-based methods for accurately predicting the world. What happens when the best methods for computational fluid dynamics, molecular dynamics, nuclear physics are all uninterpretable ML models? Does this decouple progress from our current understanding of the scientific process - moving to better and better models of the world without human-int…
If you're a scientist who works in protein folding (or one of those other areas) and strongly believe that science's goal is to produce falsifiable hypotheses, these new approaches will be extremely depressing, especially if you aren't proficient enough with ML to reproduce this work in your own hands. If you're a scientist who accepts that probabilist models beat interpretable ones (articulated well here: https://no…
Re: AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
#344This tool reminds me that the human body functions much like a black box. While physics can be modeled with equations and constraints, biology is inherently probabilistic and unpredictable. We verify the efficacy of a medicine by observing its outcomes: the medicine is the input, and the changes in symptoms are the output. However, we cannot model what happens in between, as we cannot definitively prove that the medi…
Now we’ve built explainable systems like computers and software, we try to overlay that onto everything and it might not work.
To quote Alan Watts, humans like to try square out wiggly systems because we’re not great and understanding wiggles.
Re: AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
#345Stepping back, the high-order bit here is an ML method is beating physically-based methods for accurately predicting the world. What happens when the best methods for computational fluid dynamics, molecular dynamics, nuclear physics are all uninterpretable ML models? Does this decouple progress from our current understanding of the scientific process - moving to better and better models of the world without human-int…
> What happens when the best methods for computational fluid dynamics, molecular dynamics, nuclear physics are all uninterpretable ML models? A better analogy is "weather forecasting".
Re: AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
#346Earlier quoted context omitted.
The goal of science has always been to discover underlying principles and not merely to predict the outcome of experiments. I don't see any way to classify an opaque ML model as a scientific artifact since by definition it can't reveal the underlying principles. Maybe one could claim the ML model itself is the scientist and everyone else is just feeding it data. I doubt human scientists would be comfortable with that…
That ship sailed with Quantum physics. Nearly perfect at prediction, very poor at giving us a concrete understanding of what it all means. This has happened before. Newtonian mechanics was incomprehensible spooky action at a distance, but Einstein clarified gravity as the bending of spacetime.
Like, quantum mechanics doesn’t seem, to me, to just be a way of describing how to predict things. I view it as saying substantial things about how things are.
Sure, there are different interpretations of it, which make the same predictions, but, these different interpretations have a lot in common in terms of what they say about “how the world really is” - specifically, they have in common the parts that are just part of quantum mechanics.
The qau that can be spoken in plain language without getting into the mathematics, is not the eternal qau, or whatever.
Re: AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
#347Earlier quoted context omitted.
Any organization/country that has the ability to use a tool like this to create a bio weapon is already sophisticated enough to do bioterrorism today.
Alright, but now picture this: it's now open to the masses, meaning an individual could probably even do it.
Organized terrorism by groups is actually extremely rare. What is much less rare are mass shootings in the USA, by deranged individuals.
What would a psychopathic mass shooter type choose as a weapon if he not only had access to semi-automatic weapons, but now we added bio-weapons to the menu?
It seems very clear to me that when creating custom viruses becomes high school level knowledge, and the tools can be charged on a credit card, nuclear weapons will be relegated to the second most likely way that our human civilization will end.
I believe the two concepts being brought together here are the Law of Large Numbers, and the sudden ability for one single human to kill at least millions.
Re: AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
#348Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you're a scientist who works in protein folding (or one of those other areas) and strongly believe that science's goal is to produce falsifiable hypotheses, these new approaches will be extremely depressing, especially if you aren't proficient enough with ML to reproduce this work in your own hands. If you're a scientist who accepts that probabilist models beat interpretable ones (articulated well here: https://no…
What if our understanding of the laws of the natural sciences are subtly flawed and AI just corrects perfectly for our flawed understanding without telling us what the error in our theory was? Forget trying to understand dark matter. Just use this model to correct for how the universe works. What is actually wrong with our current model and if dark matter exists or not or something else is causing things doesn't matt…
Re: AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
#349Stepping back, the high-order bit here is an ML method is beating physically-based methods for accurately predicting the world. What happens when the best methods for computational fluid dynamics, molecular dynamics, nuclear physics are all uninterpretable ML models? Does this decouple progress from our current understanding of the scientific process - moving to better and better models of the world without human-int…
We had semiconductors and superconductors before we understood how they worked -- on both cases arguably we still don't completely understand the phenomena. Things like the dynamo and the electric motor were invented by practice and later explained by scientists, not derived from first principles. Steam engines and pumps were invented before we had the physics to describe how they worked.
Re: AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
#350Stepping back, the high-order bit here is an ML method is beating physically-based methods for accurately predicting the world. What happens when the best methods for computational fluid dynamics, molecular dynamics, nuclear physics are all uninterpretable ML models? Does this decouple progress from our current understanding of the scientific process - moving to better and better models of the world without human-int…
If you're a scientist who works in protein folding (or one of those other areas) and strongly believe that science's goal is to produce falsifiable hypotheses, these new approaches will be extremely depressing, especially if you aren't proficient enough with ML to reproduce this work in your own hands. If you're a scientist who accepts that probabilist models beat interpretable ones (articulated well here: https://no…
Other Chomsky-like models of human grammars have different asymptotic behavior and different choices of n, but the same fundamental problem; the big-O constant factor isn't neurons firing but rather human connections between the n inputs. How can you conceive of human minds being able to track O(n^3) (or whatever) cost where that n is everything being communicated -- words, concepts, symbols, representations, all that jazz and the polynomial relationships between them?
But I feel an apology is in order: I've had quite a few beers before coming home, and it's probably a mistake to try to express academically charged and difficult views on the Internet while in an inebriated state. Probably the alcohol has substantially decreased my mental computational power. However, it has only mildly impaired my ability to string together words and sentences in a grammatically complex fashion. In fact, I often feel that the more sober and clear-minded I am, the simpler my language is. Maybe human grammar is actually sub-polynomial. I have observed the same in ChatGPT; the more flowery and wordy it has become over time, the dumber its output.