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How I think about debt

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Re: How I think about debt

#41
post #6

I don't think all debt is equal, and I don't think all debt hurts your ability to handle volatility. I have a 30 year mortgage on my house with a 2.75% interest rate. That has effectively given myself "rent control"; outside of a potential rise of property taxes, my "rent" payment will not exceed a certain number of dollars. That means that if the housing prices rise rapidly, I'm covered. If I had decided not to leve…

> outside of a potential rise of property taxes, my "rent" payment will not exceed a certain number of dollars

And home insurance, too. But generally, yes: over the course of decades an American fixed-rate mortgage really is a wonderful thing.

There is also the possibility of deflation to worry about, although deflation comes with many other problems. I personally think that worrying about deflation is like worrying about a meteor, or the collapse of the local government: if it happens, so many other bad things will also happen that my mortgage will be the least of my concerns.

Re: How I think about debt

#42

Today, I started picking up what I started some time back -- the book “Debt: The First 5,000 Years” by David Graeber goes deep into the details of Debt. I've heard good reviews and I hope this is a good book as they say. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years

> the book “Debt: The First 5,000 Years” by David Graeber

Also would recommend Money: The True Story of a Made-Up Thing:

> Money only works because we all agree to believe in it. In Money, Jacob Goldstein shows how money is a useful fiction that has shaped societies for thousands of years, from the rise of coins in ancient Greece to the first stock market in Amsterdam to the emergence of shadow banking in the 21st century.

> At the heart of the story are the fringe thinkers and world leaders who reimagined money. Kublai Khan, the Mongol emperor, created paper money backed by nothing, centuries before it appeared in the west. John Law, a professional gambler and convicted murderer, brought modern money to France (and destroyed the country's economy). The cypherpunks, a group of radical libertarian computer programmers, paved the way for bitcoin.

* https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/50358103

And The power of gold : the history of an obsession (and Bernstein's other books):

> Incorporating myth, history and contemporary investigation, Bernstein tells the story of how human beings have become intoxicated, obsessed, enriched, impoverished, humbled and proud for the sake of gold. From the past to the future, Bernstein's portrayal of gold is intimately linked to the character of humankind.

* https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/249245

Re: How I think about debt

#43

Today, I started picking up what I started some time back -- the book “Debt: The First 5,000 Years” by David Graeber goes deep into the details of Debt. I've heard good reviews and I hope this is a good book as they say. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years

Graeber's book is about how debts work in different societies and cultures and what they mean. i finished the book being more confused about debt and money than when i started. that said, it was an interesting read, i don't regret reading it.

in contrast, this brief blog post by Morgan Housel gives a small visual metophor and a rule of thumb about how too much debt might be fatal when operating a business. arguably it teaches you something actionable, but doesn't tell you anything about your society.

Graeber's book is not at all concerned with giving you actionable advice on how to best use (or avoid) debt to run a business within your society.

that said, Graeber's book may give you some actionable advice on how to get along better with your neighbours, family and community. the tip would be: try to have everyone in the village owe each other debts. the idea is everyone should feel they have some obligation to others that they can never fully repay, but maybe they can return some other incomparable favour or assistance in future. this encourages cooperation.

trying to fully repay or balance these debts would be frowned upon -- such behaviour is what one might do if one were seeking to not participate in society any more. not pro-social.

Re: How I think about debt

#44

Today, I started picking up what I started some time back -- the book “Debt: The First 5,000 Years” by David Graeber goes deep into the details of Debt. I've heard good reviews and I hope this is a good book as they say. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years

RIP Graeber.

Re: How I think about debt

#45

The author of the article, Morgan Housel, is also the author of the book The Psychology of Money . This thoughts on, e.g., paying down his mortgage: > It just increased our independence, even if it made no sense on paper. So that's another element of debt that I think goes misunderstood. And a lot of that for both of those points is this idea that people don't make financial decisions on a spreadsheet. They don't mak…

> > it's okay to make financial decisions that don't make any sense on paper if they work for you

I consider that to be (mostly) pernicious nonsense, like ‘it’s okay to walk off of a cliff, if that works for you.’ To a very great degree, finances are a mathematical/legal reality: the path of wisdom is to adjust one’s emotions to that reality rather than to imagine that reality matches one’s emotions.

There is some degree of truth to it, of course: at the end of the day, life is not about maximising one’s finances, and one’s emotions definitely have a role to play in one’s happiness. But the sooner one learns to defer immediate gratification, save for the future and build up a nest egg, the happier one is likely to be.

Re: How I think about debt

#46
post #6

I don't think all debt is equal, and I don't think all debt hurts your ability to handle volatility. I have a 30 year mortgage on my house with a 2.75% interest rate. That has effectively given myself "rent control"; outside of a potential rise of property taxes, my "rent" payment will not exceed a certain number of dollars. That means that if the housing prices rise rapidly, I'm covered. If I had decided not to leve…

I think the article still holds up. A financial crisis where you lose your job, a war causing deflation, a housing bubble bursting are all events that could lead to you paying _much_ more than rent. If you can't pay, they'll take your house and everything else until they decide that the debt is paid. In case of a bubble bursting this can mean that you _still_ owe money after they took your house. This has happened to…

>> If you can't pay, they'll take your house and everything else until they decide that the debt is paid.

This is new. Mortgages in the US traditionally took just the home as collateral. Thanks for the reminder that this is now a thing to look out for, as I may need to borrow one more time than I ever expected.

Re: How I think about debt

#47
post #6

I don't think all debt is equal, and I don't think all debt hurts your ability to handle volatility. I have a 30 year mortgage on my house with a 2.75% interest rate. That has effectively given myself "rent control"; outside of a potential rise of property taxes, my "rent" payment will not exceed a certain number of dollars. That means that if the housing prices rise rapidly, I'm covered. If I had decided not to leve…

Are you going to live in that house for 30 years? What’s your plan when you need to move?

The purpose of a 30-year fixed mortgage is to build up equity in a home you otherwise couldn't afford. If OP moves, they now only have to take on a smaller mortgage for their new home and then keep paying that new mortgage off.

The goal is that by the time you reach retirement age, you have paid off the mortgage and own your home free and clear. Thus, you only have to pay the property taxes and have more financial security than someone who never built up equity because they always paid rent.

Furthermore, if you have children, that home is potentially a source of generational wealth. They can sell it after you pass and invest the proceeds, or live in it themselves if they want. Worst case, if you find you didn't save enough for retirement, you can tap into the home equity to keep food on the table, although this is not optimal.

Re: How I think about debt

#48
post #41
post #6

I don't think all debt is equal, and I don't think all debt hurts your ability to handle volatility. I have a 30 year mortgage on my house with a 2.75% interest rate. That has effectively given myself "rent control"; outside of a potential rise of property taxes, my "rent" payment will not exceed a certain number of dollars. That means that if the housing prices rise rapidly, I'm covered. If I had decided not to leve…

> outside of a potential rise of property taxes, my "rent" payment will not exceed a certain number of dollars And home insurance, too. But generally, yes: over the course of decades an American fixed-rate mortgage really is a wonderful thing. There is also the possibility of deflation to worry about, although deflation comes with many other problems. I personally think that worrying about deflation is like worrying…

You probably paid more for the house due to the government intervention in the mortgage market, although that likely raised the rents similarly.

Re: How I think about debt

#49
This is an overly simplistic model which happens to have applied very well to Japan but would break down if applied in other economies where inflationary risk is present.

I'm pretty sure there's a joke about there being three types of economies: developed, undeveloped, and Japan.

Cash is useless if the value of the cash goes down by 10,000% and you don't have an inflation adjusted revenue stream. You have to do something with the cash to get enough interest to keep up with inflation.

Re: How I think about debt

#50

Reminds me of those real estate influencer types you see on social media... "We are $4.25 million in debt but live care free vacation filled lives bringing in $40,000 a month"

$40,000 is $480,000/year, which is 11.3% of $4.25 million; if one borrowed that $4.25 million at a significant discount to 11.3% then that might be a very good financial decision indeed.

If it’s at a floating rate, it might still be a good decision. But right now some business loans are up around 15%, at which point the situation above would be an absolute catastrophe.

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