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How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

construction-physics.com

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Re: How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

#41

Post by VHRanger »

trwm wrote: post #26
gjkood wrote: post #2

I have been listening to Kai Ryssdal's Marketplace on NPR/KQED the last few days on my commute home from work. The topic for the last several days was on the CHIPS And Science Act and the new Semiconductor Fabs being built by TSMC and Intel in Phoenx, AZ. It will be several years before the plants already being constructed will go into production but there is a whole ecosystem of current construction, education of th…

Yes this is called a positive externality. It is why outsourcing produced much more devastation than was promised and why onshoring will create much more work than expected. The end result currently will likely be stagflation since like always politiciand do the wrong thing even when doing the right thing.

That's not why outsourcing created devastation.

The issue without outsourcing is that the benefits are widespread (lower prices!) but the drawbacks are concentrated (factory town is now a hellhole). And our political system is incapable of redistributing correctly even though the net effect is highly positive.

The seminal study on the topic is the "China shock" paper from Autor et Al.:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w21906

Re: How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

#42

Post by moneywoes »

tnmom wrote: post #11
narrator wrote: post #9

I've been to a number of big construction sites for business purposes. When I hear, "this is a $40 million dollar project" and when I see all these workmen, equipment and materials moving around, I think, so this is what $40 million dollars in motion looks like.

Much of that money goes to permitting, admin, and insurance. What you’re seeing is probably the $10-20 million that wasn’t successfully siphoned off by bureaucrats.

is this flow of dollars tracked anywhere

Re: How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

#43

Post by trwm »

VHRanger wrote: post #41
trwm wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes this is called a positive externality. It is why outsourcing produced much more devastation than was promised and why onshoring will create much more work than expected. The end result currently will likely be stagflation since like always politiciand do the wrong thing even when doing the right thing.

That's not why outsourcing created devastation. The issue without outsourcing is that the benefits are widespread (lower prices!) but the drawbacks are concentrated (factory town is now a hellhole). And our political system is incapable of redistributing correctly even though the net effect is highly positive. The seminal study on the topic is the "China shock" paper from Autor et Al.: https://www.nber.org/papers/w21…

The multiplier effect is well known and understood. Nit sure why you're arguing against it.

Re: How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

#44

Post by ghghgfdfgh »

nwiswell wrote: post #27
ghghgfdfgh wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's good for him, but it means we'll never find out in the near future whether it's possible for the average person to create useful ICs in their garage.

It's very similar to creating clothes by hand at home. Can you do it, given the right tools, training, and patience? Yes. Will they be any good? No. Will they be cost-competitive? No. Getting chips made on a shuttle run for an old node is very affordable. There's really no need for it. (According to one MPW supplier, 10mm2 of 340nm, up to 10 dies, costs 6400 euros, and it's unlikely 340nm is achievable in a garage an…

From a business perspective, I agree that it’s a fool’s errand. But imagine being able to design and tangibly build your own computer, at home. 6400 euros is pennies for a business, but exorbitant for an individual.

I believe the way Sam Zeloof circumvents the enormous amount of capital needed for a chip fab by relying on modern technology to create 1970’s technology. He simply mounts a cheap digital projector onto a cheap microscope - they didn’t have that advantage in the 70s, and thus it cost millions to start a chip fab. My point is that it could conceivably be doable for an individual to create old computing technology with the advantages of living in the modern world. I certainly don’t have the drive to do it, but I wish someone did.

Re: How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

#45

Post by abdullahkhalids »

nwiswell wrote: post #27
ghghgfdfgh wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's good for him, but it means we'll never find out in the near future whether it's possible for the average person to create useful ICs in their garage.

It's very similar to creating clothes by hand at home. Can you do it, given the right tools, training, and patience? Yes. Will they be any good? No. Will they be cost-competitive? No. Getting chips made on a shuttle run for an old node is very affordable. There's really no need for it. (According to one MPW supplier, 10mm2 of 340nm, up to 10 dies, costs 6400 euros, and it's unlikely 340nm is achievable in a garage an…

Will it give a 100% guarantee that there are no backdoors in your device? Yes.

This yes can be priceless in some circumstances.

Re: How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

#46

Post by ijidak »

gjkood wrote: post #2

I have been listening to Kai Ryssdal's Marketplace on NPR/KQED the last few days on my commute home from work. The topic for the last several days was on the CHIPS And Science Act and the new Semiconductor Fabs being built by TSMC and Intel in Phoenx, AZ. It will be several years before the plants already being constructed will go into production but there is a whole ecosystem of current construction, education of th…

So, is Intel buying ASML EUV machines for their build out in Arizona?

It seems like Intel is skipping ASML EUV entirely.

If that's the case, I'm trying to understand how Intel ever gets decent yields at 7nm to 5nm.

It's definitely not coming from High-NA, which seems like a short-term distraction.

Re: How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

#47

Post by xeonmc »

nwiswell wrote: post #27
ghghgfdfgh wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's good for him, but it means we'll never find out in the near future whether it's possible for the average person to create useful ICs in their garage.

It's very similar to creating clothes by hand at home. Can you do it, given the right tools, training, and patience? Yes. Will they be any good? No. Will they be cost-competitive? No. Getting chips made on a shuttle run for an old node is very affordable. There's really no need for it. (According to one MPW supplier, 10mm2 of 340nm, up to 10 dies, costs 6400 euros, and it's unlikely 340nm is achievable in a garage an…

really the main dealbreaker is HF at home, the rest of chipmaking really isn't that complicated on the process level for a crude design.

Re: How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

#48

Post by Aloisius »

ijidak wrote: post #39
Aloisius wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no one else to buy EUV machines from. ASML is the sole supplier in the world. Fab 34 in Ireland got its first ASML EUV machine two years ago. I don't believe High NA EUV machines will end up in this generation of fabs. The first one was shipped to Intel's dev fab a few months back.

But, did Intel skip EUV entirely, or did it finally start buying EUV machines?

They use ASML EUV machines today for all their Intel 4 process chips (Meteor Lake so far). They plan to use it for Intel 3, Intel 20A and 18A as well.

Intel 14A will use high-NA EUV.

Re: How to build a $20B semiconductor fab

#49

Post by stevofolife »

bmiller2 wrote: post #17
tnmom wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much of that money goes to permitting, admin, and insurance. What you’re seeing is probably the $10-20 million that wasn’t successfully siphoned off by bureaucrats.

I don't know why you're being downvoted. There is a reason why development volume across states is asymmetric.

Downvotes help people skip the noise and focus on the signal. Ain’t nothing wrong with that.
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