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Can we live 1000 years?

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Re: Can we live 1000 years?

#11
What's the ultimate end game of living for ever?

Who's read Asimov's "The Last Question" http://www.multivax.com/last_question.html

Imagine you can live to 1000 or more, at what point does your brain run out of space for memories?

When you're finally out of room in your memory buffer do you just turn it into a FIFO queue? So you could collect a whole bunch of information you like (like favorite books, music, movies, etc) start consuming at one end, forget that by the time you get to the end and start again. Repeat forever.

Alternatively you could expand your mind, you turn into a cyborg or something. See Asimov's The Last Question again.

Or you could stimulate your (possibly digital) brain's please center - forever.

And this leads me to a theory of what happened to all the other advanced civilizations in the universe.

Assume human like intelligence evolves somewhere out there, then:

Scenario #1: Self destruction.

Scenario #2: External destruction, asteroid or something.

Scenario #3 Super-intellect is achieved:

#3.1 Rational super intellect realized existence for the sake of existence is pointless and quits.

#3.2 Irrational super intellect wants to exist rational enlightenment be damned. Irrational intellect expands and expands.

In other words, if some alien species out there advanced enough to reach trans-humanism (or trans-alienism hardi har har har) then it probably also transcended any irrational genetic fear of death and then promptly took a bow and exited stage left.

I guess what I'm saying is you're doomed either way.

Either you are primitive and doomed to die a natural death.

Or you're super advanced and too smart to fear death, then you have something to do for a while but eventually...

Re: Can we live 1000 years?

#13
post #9

Living a thousand years has some pretty interesting implications. - Things that seem safe will become dangerous. Small daily risks, such as crossing a red light, will have a much bigger chance of killing you. If you live 15 times as long the risk is 15 times as big. Expect to see people being insulated from the daily dangers of the world. - Our personal drive will diminish. If you want to do a startup (or whatever el…

Imagine the implications for wealth, too.

If the means of life extension is not hideously expensive, then anyone past a certain age with even the smallest bit of sense will be rich beyond the dreams of mortal men. Compound interest works.

This would have interesting social ramifications. As it is, most states are organized such that the old are relatively rich, the young are relatively poor, and the young's income subsidizes the old's healthcare costs. In a state with some people who are 420 and some people are 20, the Methuselah will be worth $300 million. For every dollar invested back when he was twenty.

Re: Can we live 1000 years?

#14
post #9

Living a thousand years has some pretty interesting implications. - Things that seem safe will become dangerous. Small daily risks, such as crossing a red light, will have a much bigger chance of killing you. If you live 15 times as long the risk is 15 times as big. Expect to see people being insulated from the daily dangers of the world. - Our personal drive will diminish. If you want to do a startup (or whatever el…

Our personal drive will diminish, but so will our aversion to non-fatal risks. My current reasoning: doing a startup has the opportunity cost of me taking a finance job (not so much these days) or trying to become a tenured professor. Realistically speaking, due to the aging process, I have about 13-18 years of my life to spend on such things (after 40-45, change gets harder). After age 40, I'll probably just keep doing what I'm already doing.

Give me 1000 years to live, I might just spend the next 20 years trying to build an AI. I agree with Yudkowsky that it might be the most important problem of our time, but I'm unwilling to spend my life on such a long shot. Give me 1000 years to spend, 900 youthful, and I'll give it a shot. Worst case, I learn a lot, and I can use those skills in my startup phase (my next 20 years, out of 1000).

Of course, it's different for potentially fatal risks; if I lived 1000 years, I'd probably be less likely to take up Eskrima (my latest project) and I probably wouldn't have fenced in college.

[edit: added this paragraph.] Incidentally, anti-aging would be a major boon for women. Realistically speaking, most women can pick only one of {career/accomplishments/etc, children}. Even those who can pick two must still face the choice of mid level management + children vs startup founder (or something along those lines). Anti-aging gives the opportunity to do both.

Re: Can we live 1000 years?

#15
post #9

Living a thousand years has some pretty interesting implications. - Things that seem safe will become dangerous. Small daily risks, such as crossing a red light, will have a much bigger chance of killing you. If you live 15 times as long the risk is 15 times as big. Expect to see people being insulated from the daily dangers of the world. - Our personal drive will diminish. If you want to do a startup (or whatever el…

Another interesting aspect is the concept of retirement. The way I see it, retirement is done in one of two main ways now: people who save their entire lives to live comfortably for the last 20-30 years, and people who live paycheck to paycheck until they fall into a meager retirement. I think this difference will be magnified many times if people live to 1000.

Imagine working for 100 years to save up enough money to live comfortably for the next 900 years, and how different that is than the people who will live paycheck to paycheck until only the last 20 years or so of their lives. It will create two very separate classes of people.

Re: Can we live 1000 years?

#16
post #10

I think an interesting side effect of extremely long lives would be people would be a lot more careful. Driving fast, not wearing a seatbelt, skydiving, going to war, heck even leaving the house would be considered crazy. who would want to risk ending their lives in an accident if they could live for another healthy 900 years?

I'm not so sure. Did people become twice as cautious when life expectancy doubled in our fairly recent history? The retirement age of 65 was originally set because it was deemed so unlikely that anyone would reach it, now it is almost considered a given that people will live past it and I don't think people have become more cautious as a result. The other thing is that if people feel that medical technology has advanced enough that they can be pulled through ever increasing traumatic circumstances they are more likely to attempt higher risk behavior.

Re: Can we live 1000 years?

#17
Imagine having been born in the year 1100 and still be alive with about 90 years to go.

PS: For what it's worth, humans actually did live for about 900 years on average until the Great Flood---if you believe in the Bible.

Re: Can we live 1000 years?

#18
post #7
post #5

It would slow down technical innovation. People grow accustomed to their surroundings and find newer technology suspicious and unneeded. That's why leaps in innovation are most easily embraced by the generations born with them (ie., current teenagers using computers for communication where their parents use phones). If people can live 1000 years, that would cause overcrowding of the Earth. So if we don't expand to ot…

If we can get to the point where we're reversing aging, I think we can safely assume reversible sterilization. Use an economic solution (really simplified here): When you receive anti-aging treatment, you're temporarily sterilized. Each person then gets 1 credit for a child. 3 credits are required to bear a child. One can purchase or sell their credit for children as one would like. For the first time in human histor…

I'm not sure it would be necessary. Kids in developed nations are already considered optional (vs. undeveloped countries where you put your kids to work so you can eat) so as people get accustomed to having more time to raise kids then they may seem them as much less of a priority and birthrates would continue to decline to offset the increased lifespans. I do wonder what people would consider to be the age of maturity at which you are expected to be on your own. Would people expect to be cared for by their parents until they are 300?

Re: Can we live 1000 years?

#19
post #13
post #9

Living a thousand years has some pretty interesting implications. - Things that seem safe will become dangerous. Small daily risks, such as crossing a red light, will have a much bigger chance of killing you. If you live 15 times as long the risk is 15 times as big. Expect to see people being insulated from the daily dangers of the world. - Our personal drive will diminish. If you want to do a startup (or whatever el…

Imagine the implications for wealth, too. If the means of life extension is not hideously expensive, then anyone past a certain age with even the smallest bit of sense will be rich beyond the dreams of mortal men. Compound interest works. This would have interesting social ramifications. As it is, most states are organized such that the old are relatively rich, the young are relatively poor, and the young's income su…

If 20% of the population becomes mufti billionaires a billion will not buy what it used to.

Compound interest works in large part because capital has value. As the world becomes rich the value of wealth will go down relative to the value of peoples effort. Basically over the extremely long term expected ROI should go down if people start living into extreme old age. Granted some people will always balance this out with the 700 year old with credit card debt keeping the people who get that interest well paid but if 60 million people are willing to lend billions the interest rate is going to be vary low.

PS: What I wonder about is how the death penalty vs life in prison is going to work out. As people live longer I expect more people to commit "major" crimes and even larger groups of people to know someone that "flipped out". Will we want to punish people for mistakes they made 200 years ago or will people become so jaded that minor crimes are are just dealt with by killing the offender?

Re: Can we live 1000 years?

#20
post #9

Living a thousand years has some pretty interesting implications. - Things that seem safe will become dangerous. Small daily risks, such as crossing a red light, will have a much bigger chance of killing you. If you live 15 times as long the risk is 15 times as big. Expect to see people being insulated from the daily dangers of the world. - Our personal drive will diminish. If you want to do a startup (or whatever el…

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