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Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

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Re: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

#91

Post by ivan_gammel »

mmsc wrote: post #71

> In both cases, she used sophisticated tradecraft that sought to leave no trace in databases accessible to European authorities. For instance, she booked her trips and bought her plane tickets using her Czech passport, registering only that nationality with the Greek airline. But upon crossing the Russian border, Šapošnikova used her secret Russian passport, thus bypassing the need to obtain a Russian visa issued to…

At least in some countries in Schengen area they check both passports on the outbound travel to Russia, e.g. in Narva, Estonia („You don’t seem to have Russian visa, do you have another passport?“)

However, you don’t have to be very smart and sophisticated to simply choose another route and use connection in Istanbul to avoid this check…

Re: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

#92

Post by TiredOfLife »

severino wrote: post #67
timthelion wrote: post #40

What I don't understand is why the attack on the Czech Republic was not seen as an attack by Russia on NATO.

What for? To start a war between nuclear powers just because of sabotage? Furthermore, we the members of NATO sometimes sabotage other members, like when some pipes of the Nord Stream pipeline were destroyed two years ago. So...

>we the members of NATO sometimes sabotage other members, like when some pipes of the Nord Stream pipeline were destroyed two years ago

Damn! You have evidence of that? That must be worth a fortune.

Re: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

#94

Post by mandevil »

BWStearns wrote: post #5

I didn't know the GRU had an illegals program. I thought it was all SVR. Anyone know if that's a recent development?

Reuters, way back in 2018- reacting to the Skripal poisoning and Fancy Bear accusations, wrote a explainer piece about the GRU. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-russia-gru-factbo...) From that: `According to a Western assessment of GRU seen by Reuters, the GRU has a long-running programme to run 'illegal' spies - those who work without diplomatic cover and who live under an assumed identity for years until orders from Moscow. "It has a long-running programme of 'illegals' reserved for the most sensitive or deniable tasks across the spectrum of GRU operations," the assessment said.`

Re: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

#95

Post by anigbrowl »

lostlogin wrote: post #89
timthelion wrote: post #40

What I don't understand is why the attack on the Czech Republic was not seen as an attack by Russia on NATO.

Add it to the long list of attacks. The real question is ‘what sort of attack would generate a response from NATO?’

One everyone knew about that could not be played off as an accident or one small unit that got carried away. Read war histories, large conflicts often start out with a succession of small scale feints, probes, and black operations.

Re: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

#96

Post by mandevil »

BWStearns wrote: post #75
surfingdino wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All major intelligence agencies have them. Why GRU would be any different?

GRU is nominally military intelligence and SVR inherited the KGB illegals program. These programs are really hard and have a ton of overhead supporting a relatively small number of actual officers. Having duplicate capabilities for it is a waste. Especially in this case where they're used for active crimes/violence. The GRU has never been shy about just going and murdering people on a tourist visa[0], why bother with…

While it is probably a waste of resources, dictatorships are famous for having wasteful duplicated efforts: dictators need their people to constantly be competing with each other, and to split favor so that no one ever becomes strong enough to pose a threat to the Big Man himself. That is the whole reason for the GRU-KGB split in the first place!

Re: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

#97

Post by ilya_m »

BWStearns wrote: post #75
surfingdino wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All major intelligence agencies have them. Why GRU would be any different?

GRU is nominally military intelligence and SVR inherited the KGB illegals program. These programs are really hard and have a ton of overhead supporting a relatively small number of actual officers. Having duplicate capabilities for it is a waste. Especially in this case where they're used for active crimes/violence. The GRU has never been shy about just going and murdering people on a tourist visa[0], why bother with…

> having duplicate capabilities for it is a waste.

This is a feature, not a bug. This is how a system of checks and balances works in authoritarian countries - the entire security apparatus is duplicated several times over lest one agency becomes too powerful or indispensable. KGB/Ministry of the Interior/Military kept each other in check for much of the later part of the Soviet Union's existence.

Re: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

#98

Post by sofixa »

rdtsc wrote: post #86
timthelion wrote: post #40

What I don't understand is why the attack on the Czech Republic was not seen as an attack by Russia on NATO.

That's a very good question. The problem is what's next if they acknowledge that. Say it is acknowledged as an attack on a NATO member, but nothing is done. That immediately turns NATO's worth from whatever its is worth now, to less than the paper it was printed on in 1999 when the Check Republic joined the organization. That's the achilles heel of NATO, and the Russian government knows it. Same goes for Baltic count…

Since the invasion of Ukraine I think it's pretty clear to everyone involved (and many have been making it publicly and loudly clear) that appeasement doesn't work with Putin. So if any of the Baltics gets invaded for whatever reason, you can bet that a majority of NATO members will join to defend (even traitors in some countries like Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria will definitely will try their best to stop their country from joining).

Re: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

#99

Post by mrighele »

mmsc wrote: post #69
captn3m0 wrote: post #52

> In both cases, she used sophisticated tradecraft that sought to leave no trace in databases accessible to European authorities. For instance, she booked her trips and bought her plane tickets using her Czech passport, registering only that nationality with the Greek airline. But upon crossing the Russian border, Šapošnikova used her secret Russian passport, thus bypassing the need to obtain a Russian visa issued to…

The airline only needs to be physically shown a passport which will get the person into the destination: they don’t record it. So you book with the Czech passport, go through border control with the Czech passport, then show the airline staff the Russian passport.

I may be wrong, but every time you do a check-in you are giving your information and they record it, and you have to show the same document at boarding time.

This doesn't mean that it must be the same document that you used to enter or exit the country though, although depending on the destination the airline may require proof that you can enter the destination country, like a visa or a passport, because having a passenger refused entry may be an hassle for them.

You can use a document to exit the departure country, another for the airline (with the caveat above) and another one for the destination, even with different names on them.

Re: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe

#100

Post by qup »

thriftwy wrote: post #44
dralley wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is the motive "not there"? Skripal was seen as a traitor, having acted as a double-agent for British Intelligence. There's a clear pattern of Putin going after "traitors" - Alexander Litvinenko had publicly accused Putin of conducting assassinations and organizing false terrorist attacks before fleeing to the UK and famously being assassinated with Polonium there. Maksim Kuzminov was just assassinated in Spain a…

[flagged]

> fruit of my spleen

Google returns zero results for this phrase (when quoted). Congratulations.

I like it.

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