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Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?
31–40 of 69 posts
Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?
#32We already have chips that we're not really able to reproduce, like some of the custom chips and ULA (Uncommitted Logic Array) in older micro computers. The fabs and technology is abandoned, and while we might be able to recreate it the results might not be completely identical chips.
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Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?
#33We can't. All of the Earth's cheap energy has already been extracted. None of the remaining energy stores can be extracted without modern technology because it would take far more energy to extract than it produces.
If we lose our ability to produce these extraction and refinement tools (or energy becomes too expensive to extract before we have sufficient alternatives), we'll be locked into a subsistence based existence for hundreds of millions of years until the world reserves of coal and oil are slowly replenished.
No energy = no post-industrial goods (and mass starvation due to lack of fertilizer), and definitely no CPUs.
Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?
#34It would obviously be possible, since we have CPUs now but once lived in caves. You can work backwards from "Semiconductor fabrication", which (I guess) would look something like: Microfabrication > Computation > Manufacturing > Electrical Engineering > Chemical Engineering > Metalworking > Power generation > Basic tools As to how long this would take, that feels very speculative. Did anyone print a copy of Wikipedia…
> It would obviously be possible, since we have CPUs now but once lived in caves. That's a big assumption. The modern world was built in easily accessible fossil fuels. We've used basically all of the easily accessible oil and a lot of the easily accessible coal. Without an easily accessible surplus it's hard to go from agriculture to modern society.
I'm curious on how easy would be to with solar with the knowledge we have now in material science
Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?
#35The first amplifying vacuum tube was patented in 1908 and you could produce a crude computer from that, even if terribly inefficient. I imagine civilisation would wind back to around the 18th century, because we would understand things like fertilizers, calculus and how to make steel, but could not immediately use that knowledge to produce steam trains, bicycles or saxophones. So, assuming an accelerated pace of deve…
One hurdle is that the easy to mine materials have already been mined. We have been using progressively more sophisticated methods of ore finding, mining and purification.
Doing that the second time around would be harder. Though we can probably recover good quality materials from scraps.
Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?
#36In the event of TSMC's fabs being destroyed by China attacking Taiwan, how long until we could produce modern CPUs?
Intel still fabs their own CPUs. They're behind, but by what, a year or two?
Sure we would fall behind in some stuff, especially AI, but does it really matter if suddenly all we have is 2-5 year old CPU technology? Mostly everything should work as good as it does today. We will just need a bit more power.
Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Did anyone print a copy of Wikipedia? Yes, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Print_Wikipedia
„The bound paper volumes, each running 700 pages, represented a fraction of the 7,473 total volumes necessary to render the encyclopedia's extant text on that date.“ So, there are some missing volumes. And they don't print the pictures.
It would be interesting if we could tag wiki articles as 'vital' or some such for these reasons. Then one could filter by this and save/print. Or maybe a 1-10 scale.
Of course, there'd be disagreement over which things got said designation, so some criteria would have to be established up front.
Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?
#38Apocalypse as in complete destruction ? We're fucked, there isn't enough easily accessible fossil fuel for a new industrial revolution, this is our only shot.
Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?
#39Scavanging would outcompete newly made crap CPUs for such a long time, that I would say maybe never?
Re: Ask HN: In the event of an apocalypse, how long until we could produce CPUs?
#40Sam Zeloof makes CPUs in his parents garage. If he and his garage survive the apocalypse, he can keep making them ;)
Someone joked that the tribe that protects him will have a major advanage...
I suppose the deeper question is how long until we Factorio our way into being able to prodce all the chemicals and devices involved in the process. I'd love to read an in depth analysis of that question!