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When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)

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Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)

#111

Post by Retric »

thangalin wrote: post #37

2038. * 86 billion neurons in a brain [1] * 400 transistors to simulate a synapse [2] That's 34 trillion, 400 billion transistors to simulate a human brain. As of 2024, the GB200 Grace Blackwell GPU has 208 billion MOSFETs[3]. In 2023, AMD's MI300A CPU had 146 billion transistors[3]. In 2021, the Versal VP1802 FPGA had 92 billion transistors[3]. Intel projects 1 trillion by 2030; TSMC suggests 200 billion by 2030. We…

Each of those cells has ~7,000 synapses each of which is both doing some computation and sending information. Further, this needs to be reconfigurable as synaptic connections aren’t static so you can’t simply make a chip with hardwired connections.

You could ballpark that as that’s 400 * 7000 * 86 billion transistors to simulate a brain that can’t learn anything, though I don’t see the point. Reasonably equivalent real time brain emulation is likely much further I’d say 2070 on a cluster isn’t unrealistic, but we’re not getting there on a single chip using lithography.

What nobody talks about is the bandwidth requirements if this isn’t all in hardware. You basically need random access to 100 trillion values (+100t weights) ~100-1,000+ times a second. Which requires splitting things across multiple chips and some kind of 3D mesh of really high bandwidth connections.

Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)

#112

Post by rerdavies »

andoando wrote: post #30
pfdietz wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is reminding me again of The Bitter Lesson. http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html

I am not a fan of this article. The vary foundation of computer science was an attempt to emulate a human mind processing data. Foundational changes are of course harder, but it does not mean we should drop it all together.

> The very foundation of computer science was an attempt to emulate a human mind processing data.

The very foundation of computer science was an attempt to emulate a human mind mindlessly processing data. Fixed that for you.

And I'm still not sure I agree.

The foundation of computer science was at attempt to process data so that human minds didn't have to endure the drudgery of such mindless tasks.

Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)

#113

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

thangalin wrote: post #37

2038. * 86 billion neurons in a brain [1] * 400 transistors to simulate a synapse [2] That's 34 trillion, 400 billion transistors to simulate a human brain. As of 2024, the GB200 Grace Blackwell GPU has 208 billion MOSFETs[3]. In 2023, AMD's MI300A CPU had 146 billion transistors[3]. In 2021, the Versal VP1802 FPGA had 92 billion transistors[3]. Intel projects 1 trillion by 2030; TSMC suggests 200 billion by 2030. We…

Won't we run into physical limits long before 2064?

I imagine that would push out the timeline.

Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)

#114

Post by tim333 »

thangalin wrote: post #37

2038. * 86 billion neurons in a brain [1] * 400 transistors to simulate a synapse [2] That's 34 trillion, 400 billion transistors to simulate a human brain. As of 2024, the GB200 Grace Blackwell GPU has 208 billion MOSFETs[3]. In 2023, AMD's MI300A CPU had 146 billion transistors[3]. In 2021, the Versal VP1802 FPGA had 92 billion transistors[3]. Intel projects 1 trillion by 2030; TSMC suggests 200 billion by 2030. We…

Transistors are much faster than synapses so a few can simulate a bunch of synapses. As a result you can probably get by with like a million times less than your estimate.

Re: When will computer hardware match the human brain? (1998)

#115

Post by RaftPeople »

rerdavies wrote: post #84
thangalin wrote: post #37

2038. * 86 billion neurons in a brain [1] * 400 transistors to simulate a synapse [2] That's 34 trillion, 400 billion transistors to simulate a human brain. As of 2024, the GB200 Grace Blackwell GPU has 208 billion MOSFETs[3]. In 2023, AMD's MI300A CPU had 146 billion transistors[3]. In 2021, the Versal VP1802 FPGA had 92 billion transistors[3]. Intel projects 1 trillion by 2030; TSMC suggests 200 billion by 2030. We…

> Blackwell GPU has 208 billion MOSFETs[3] Things us hard sci fi fans will insist on: - You have significantly undercounted transistors. As of 2024 you can put up to 8.4 terabytes of LPDDR5X memory into an NVidia Grace Blackwell rack. So that's 72 trillion transistors (and another 72 trillion capacitors) right there. - A GPU executes significantly faster than a neuron. - The hardware of one GPU can be used to simulat…

> The hardware of one GPU can be used to simulate billions of neurons in realtime.

You mean simulate billions artificial neurons, right?

You can't simulate a single biological neuron yet because it's way too complex and they still don't even understand all of the details.

If they did have all of the details, at minimum you would need to simulate the concentrations of ions internally and externally as well as the electrical field around the neuron to truly simulate the dynamic nature of a neuron in space and time. It's response to stimulus is dependent on all of that and more.

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