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Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

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Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s too hard to do. What is “a robot” and “a job?” Replacing workers is easy enough to calculate that with, but what if I start a brand new factory that only ever used robots? The solution is wealth tax and UBI. Get rid of regular income tax, then do a progressive wealth tax, which is enough to pay for a progressive UBI. This way, it’s no problem if you lay off all your workers to replace them with robots. In fact…

Very few people hoard wealth. You imagine wealthy people like Scrooge McDuck with a room full of gold coins. It's almost always invested in stocks which helps companies grow or in bonds which helps finance public works.

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Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#142
post #52

It's clear that technological development creates a shift in jobs, i.e some jobs are lost, but new ones are created as a result. Whether the total #jobs increases or decreases is debatable. The issue that I see addressed less often is that the new jobs require by definition, a higher skill set. (You wouldn't displace 100 manual labor workers with a machine that requires 105 workers to maintain). So by definition, the…

Wait a minute. Higher skill jobs? For at least a decade, the place jobs shifted to was Amazon. If you lost your job because Amazon put your company out of business, you could get a worse, more humiliating job working at an Amazon warehouse, or as an Amazon driver. It was not higher skill jobs the market shifted to, it was Nomadland jobs. Now that Amazon is switching to robots, where are those people Amazon is putting…

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Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the point.

Not by my reading of the original comment. Seems like they're saying that layoffs result in higher skilled jobs. And here's my basis for that conclusion: > The issue that I see addressed less often is that the new jobs require by definition, a higher skill set. And what I'm saying is that there may not be new jobs, and if they are they may be lower skill jobs if history is any indication.

USA stem grads are too expensive, so companies are just opening body shops in asia/south america.

So stem education was largely just a grift to get everyone they could into college.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#144

I wish I could believe that all this automation would lead to more leisure time for all of humanity, but it certainly won’t happen on its own out of generosity from the robot owners.

We've been saying that for a long time. [Keynes predicted we'd be working 15 hour weeks by now]( https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ecca.12439 ) The thing is, people don't actually want to tradeoff their labor time for leisure time all that well. They value consumption too much. There are plenty of 15 hour jobs out there. You can get one right now! But you'd need to have a smaller appartment, an older c…

> There are plenty of 15 hour jobs out there. You can get one right now!

What 15 hour/week job pays enough to afford rent, food, medicine?

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait a minute. Higher skill jobs? For at least a decade, the place jobs shifted to was Amazon. If you lost your job because Amazon put your company out of business, you could get a worse, more humiliating job working at an Amazon warehouse, or as an Amazon driver. It was not higher skill jobs the market shifted to, it was Nomadland jobs. Now that Amazon is switching to robots, where are those people Amazon is putting…

The fact that you can now warehouse with robots lowers the barrier of entry for warehousing, which creates new companies that will host competition against Amazon, offer contract labor for Amazon, and in both ways create jobs that are superior to the previously needed entry level pick and packer. The same laborer can now be promoted at a new company to a higher pay job that requires no greater skill set, simply becau…

That seems wrong. Why would robot warehouses lead to more and better warehouse jobs for humans? Fewer humans would be necessary overall in the existing warehouses, and it's not obvious to me why a lot more warehouses would be created.

Did replacing manufacturing jobs with robot assemblers in—for example—the automotive sector, lead to more auto manufacturers and better jobs for auto workers? I don't believe it did. There may be more manufacturers now, and more jobs, but they aren't high skill or highly-paid jobs, and they aren't staffed by the people who were laid off originally (because they were mostly moved to other countries, where people can work more cheaply than the countries where the jobs were lost).

For capital intense upgrades like robots, why wouldn't the advantage go to a few big players, rather than a ton of small ones?

I also don't understand why the number of new skilled workers in this new world would somehow equal the number of warehouses workers laid off. What's the connection between those two seemingly unrelated phenomena? Why wouldn't it, for example, be a lot of laid off low-skill workers, and a just a few new, high-skilled workers?

Or for that matter, why the next generation of robots wouldn't just replace those higher-skilled warehouse jobs in a few years. And so on.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#146
post #52

It's clear that technological development creates a shift in jobs, i.e some jobs are lost, but new ones are created as a result. Whether the total #jobs increases or decreases is debatable. The issue that I see addressed less often is that the new jobs require by definition, a higher skill set. (You wouldn't displace 100 manual labor workers with a machine that requires 105 workers to maintain). So by definition, the…

But how do you know what that future looks like? For example, What if we use AGI and make ourselves smarter and more capable as Kurzweil has argued ? You can’t imagine what that will look like so why worry about jobs ?

> You can’t imagine what that will look like so why worry about jobs?

I'd rather worry about what that would look like given the current trends in tech and society.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone claimed technological changes will impact every group and subgroup on a literally equal basis? Some will have better prospects and others will have worse. Since roughly half the population must have below median average prospects by definition.

> Has anyone claimed technological changes will impact every group and subgroup on a literally equal basis? No, but too much inequality is not sustainable. Since in a democracy everyone has an equal vote, there will be a force that balances things out over time one way or another.

Democracy won't survive the tech trillionaires. At that point you can buy the executive.

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've been saying that for a long time. [Keynes predicted we'd be working 15 hour weeks by now]( https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ecca.12439 ) The thing is, people don't actually want to tradeoff their labor time for leisure time all that well. They value consumption too much. There are plenty of 15 hour jobs out there. You can get one right now! But you'd need to have a smaller appartment, an older c…

> There are plenty of 15 hour jobs out there. You can get one right now! Not without a 90% pay cut (i.e. as opposed to the ~60% pay cut you'd expect for working 40% of the hours), I've checked.

Agreed. I think this is clearest when you look at benefits, e.g., the many American companies that only offer health insurance benefits to their full-time workers, but you see it in terms of pay, too. Most middle and high-paying jobs are exclusively full-time (and some expect 50, 60, or even more hours a week).

Re: Amazon grows to over 750k robots, replacing 100k humans

#150
post #28
post #15

I assume this is being upvoted because HN thinks this is good? At least that's what I hear in AI threads... AI just allows humans to work more efficiently right? The few fulfilment center workers left are probably now 100x fulfilment workers now that they can manage a fleet of robotic workers instead of human ones. As HN says, these types of innovations historically only create new job opportunities so there's probab…

Amazon's role in society is not to provide menial jobs to keep people busy though. If anything, the automation provides good, innovative jobs in robotics. Those are the sorts of jobs I think everyone should have. Leave fetching and carrying to robots, and educate people to be useful in more meaningful, fulfilling, and impactful ways. Suggesting that robots are bad because they take jobs from people doing horrible, bo…

The people working in the low skill jobs being eliminated aren't capable of contributing in more meaningful, impactful ways. That's why they work in low skill jobs.
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