What an irony! The Bostrom Institute has to close in the midst of the spectacular rise of AI, and the all-important questions of AI risks and human value alignment are more hotly debated than ever. I hope that Bostrom and his colleagues will continue and deepen their research, because humanity needs such insights now more than ever.
How does one research and generate insights for what does not exist yet? Is there a framework? At SXSW this year, there were a couple of talks about forecasting, as a tool for futurism, but where ethics are concerned, I’ve not seen a good template. Maybe all if this is obvious, yet I’m curious so I’m asking.
Future of Humanity Institute shuts down
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Re: Future of Humanity Institute shuts down
#72EDIT: Got my “future of” institutes mixed up.
Tegmark’s institution is the Future of Life Institute, this is the Oxford Future of Humanity Institute. Tegmark’s institute is well-funded, apparently largely due to a big crypto donation from Vitalik Buterin. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/25/a-665m-crypto-war-c...
Re: Future of Humanity Institute shuts down
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think this helps his case, but I do appreciate seeing the email in question
Every time race comes up on HackerNews i am shocked at how horrifyingly racist (some) users of this site are. Not only did a user somehow think that this context would exonerate this very racist man, both you and I are getting immediately downvoted for disagreeing. There was a post last week or so that was so full of racist comments it just got taken down. I wonder what on earth brings together HackerNews and racism…
"This organization (group of people) represents a random sample of the population. Traits that occur within individuals in the population will therefore occur within some individuals in this organization (group of people.)"
Re: Future of Humanity Institute shuts down
#74EDIT: Got my “future of” institutes mixed up.
Tegmark’s institution is the Future of Life Institute, this is the Oxford Future of Humanity Institute. Tegmark’s institute is well-funded, apparently largely due to a big crypto donation from Vitalik Buterin. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/25/a-665m-crypto-war-c...
Re: Future of Humanity Institute shuts down
#75Re: Future of Humanity Institute shuts down
#76Bear with a digression. CS Lewis was a professor at Oxford. His novel “That Hideous Strength” is about an organization that wants to use science to save humanity. “It’s a little fantastic to base one’s actions on a supposed concern for what’s going to happen millions of years hence; and you must remember that the other side would claim to be preserving humanity, too.” — That Hideous Strength: (Space Trilogy, Book Thr…
Re: Future of Humanity Institute shuts down
#77The full final report is well worth a read for those with time on their hands: https://www.futureofhumanityinstitute.org/s/FHI-Final-Report...
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- Founded in 2005 by Prof Nick Bostrom as a multidisciplinary research group at Oxford to study big-picture questions for human civilization
- Aimed to shield researchers from ordinary academic pressures and foster creativity and intellectual progress
History:
Early days (2005-2010):
- Initial funding from James Martin and the Oxford Martin School
- Focus on human enhancement ethics, global catastrophic and existential risks, methodology for thinking about uncertain futures
- Hosted influential conferences and workshops that helped build academic communities around key research areas
Maturation (2010-2020):
- Artificial intelligence, especially AI safety and governance, became a major focus
- Expanded into other areas like biosafety, priorities research, population ethics
- Received major grants allowing expansion of research
- Increasing policy impact and advising governments
Final Years (2020-2024):
- Continued work through the COVID-19 pandemic after moving to a new building
- Some new research directions like digital minds and grand futures
- But also increasing bureaucratic obstacles from the Philosophy Faculty
- FHI was closed down in April 2024 when the University declined to renew staff contracts
Research Topics and Findings:
- Existential risk - pioneered the study of risks that threaten humanity's long-term potential
- Biological risk - modeled risks from emerging biotechnologies and pandemics
- Macrostrategy - studying how long-term outcomes for humanity connect to present-day actions
- Longtermism - the idea that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority
- Grand futures - exploring the limits of what spacefaring civilizations could accomplish
- SETI/Fermi paradox - dissolving the paradox; grabby aliens hypothesis
- Effective altruism - identifying the highest-impact ways to improve the world
- Technology: - AI safety, alignment and governance - Whole brain emulation - Digital minds and AI consciousness - Human enhancement ethics
- Epistemology and rationality - anthropic reasoning, information hazards, moral uncertainty
- Ethics - challenges in infinite ethics, Parliamentary model for normative uncertainty
Concepts originated at FHI that are now influential: existential risk, astronomical waste, information hazards, differential technological development, crucial considerations, exploratory engineering, whole brain emulation
Learnings and Advice:
- Take the long-term view; build up new fields even if not currently fashionable
- Have a diverse team from many disciplines
- Invest in the right organizational relationships to maintain stability
- As an organization scales, its structure needs to evolve
- The key to replicating FHI is having the right people and intellectual culture focused on the most important questions
Re: Future of Humanity Institute shuts down
#78Bear with a digression. CS Lewis was a professor at Oxford. His novel “That Hideous Strength” is about an organization that wants to use science to save humanity. “It’s a little fantastic to base one’s actions on a supposed concern for what’s going to happen millions of years hence; and you must remember that the other side would claim to be preserving humanity, too.” — That Hideous Strength: (Space Trilogy, Book Thr…
How is that any different than deity of religion will save humanity as any more/less believable?
Re: Future of Humanity Institute shuts down
#79Bear with a digression. CS Lewis was a professor at Oxford. His novel “That Hideous Strength” is about an organization that wants to use science to save humanity. “It’s a little fantastic to base one’s actions on a supposed concern for what’s going to happen millions of years hence; and you must remember that the other side would claim to be preserving humanity, too.” — That Hideous Strength: (Space Trilogy, Book Thr…
Re: Future of Humanity Institute shuts down
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every time race comes up on HackerNews i am shocked at how horrifyingly racist (some) users of this site are. Not only did a user somehow think that this context would exonerate this very racist man, both you and I are getting immediately downvoted for disagreeing. There was a post last week or so that was so full of racist comments it just got taken down. I wonder what on earth brings together HackerNews and racism…
You know, topics like this are not always black and white. There is a full-range, nuance and discussion. I'd also wager that the downvotes here are because this flame-bait kind of comments are not appropriate for HN, or if they are appropriate then some might not think it's contributing to the discussion anyways. Me, I think the refusal by some to admit (or accept) that the full-context post adds to the discussion an…
It's odd to me that calling racism racism when a parent called it not racism is either non-contributing or inflamatory. Seems to me it is warranted.